A Packers fan viewing guide for the NFL combine
You may not care about the NFL combine, but the Packers' draft history suggests they care deeply. So what should Cheeseheads look for in Indianapolis?
Good morning!
NFL draft season officially kicks off in earnest with the NFL Scouting Combine this week in Indianapolis where hundreds of draft hopefuls will perform vaguely football-related tasks in performance tights. It may seem silly, but the data collected will be vital to evaluations come April’s draft.
So, what is important to the Green Bay Packers and what should fans have their eye on over the next week? We’ll get you ready with everything you need to know.
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What positions matter most this week?
Peter Bukowski: If you’re a potential first-round pick, the answer from a Packers perspective is all of them. Since Brian Gutekunst took over as Green Bay general manager in 2018, the team’s first-round picks have a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) above nine. For the uninitiated, RAS is a combination of athletic-testing scores indexed to the position group. In other words, RAS explains how athletic is a player relative to others at his position.
Historically, receiver 40 times don’t have a high correlation to NFL success, but the Packers still have minimum standards to which they typically adhere: 5-foot-11 or taller, 195 pounds or heavier, and faster than 4.6 in the 40, ideally with a sub-7-second three-cone drill.
Cornerback has always been a stopwatch position. Guys who run in the 4.5s don’t tend to do well in the NFL. For every Richard Sherman, there are 20 Josh Jacksons. That being said, the “vision-based” defense the Packers intend to play features far more zone coverage than many, this writer included, believed Green Bay would want under Jeff Hafley, who has prioritized press-man coverage in the past.
If they’re going to be a zone-heavy team, playing more off coverage with vision to the quarterback, then size, ball skills, and instincts will be a bigger focus. A player like Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, for example, might be seen more as a cornerback in a zone-based scheme -- Iowa corners consistently key the quarterback -- whereas if Hafley wanted to play a man-based approach as he coached at Boston College, DeJean profiles more as a safety.
Unfortunately, DeJean reportedly won’t test this week as he recovers from a leg injury, but cornerbacks currently projected to go in the top 50 like Clemson’s Nate Wiggins, Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa Jr., and others will have to show out to get in position to head to Green Bay.
The offensive linemen also have key athletic traits to watch this week. Historically, the short shuttle provides a quality indicator of future performance. Anything 4.47 seconds or better means the player will hit at a higher rate based on previous drafts. The Packers hit on Zach Tom (who ran a 4.47 short shuttle), Elgton Jenkins, and others precisely because they bet on athletic traits and the team’s infrastructure. An offensive lineman who posts an RAS over eight immediately goes on the Packers’ radar, especially if they played tackle in college as Green Bay likes to draft collegiate tackles and move them if needed.
And while athletic traits are poor indicators for linebackers and generally teams are bad at deciding which ones are good or bad in the draft, the Packers seem to care about such things if Quay Walker is any indication. He was drafted almost solely on his athletic traits as a Georgia player who wasn’t even a full-time starter and has not panned out so far in the NFL.
Gutekunst seems to care even if maybe he shouldn’t. Guys like Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper and Michigan’s Junior Colson should fit the bill along with N.C. State’s Payton Wilson.
Are there players/positions in Indy where we should not care about the testing?
PB: With a change in defensive philosophy, it’s hard to know for sure, but the Packers have not had the same sorts of strict models at safety as they seem to have at other positions.
HaHa Clinton-Dix ran the 40-yard dash in just under 4.6 seconds with mediocre jumps and a 4.87 RAS. Darnell Savage tested well athletically but is under 5-foot-11 with an RAS of 8.35, the lowest RAS score for a first-round pick in Gutekunst’s GM tenure.
The difference this year is the scheme change. If the Packers want to play more Cover 3, they’re going to need a post safety with supreme range, what Hafley called “an eraser.” That was Earl Thomas with the Seattle Seahawks, but few collegiate defenses require that of their safeties, so finding a player like that will be tough. Those who flash that range like USC Calen Bullock with ball skills and playmaking to spare tend not to tackle … or in his case don’t even bother to try.
Meanwhile, the sturdy tacklers often lack the speed and range in the middle of the field or the ball skills to make plays from a single-high alignment.
With a former DBs coach as defensive coordinator, will the Packers bet on traits and a coach to help his young safety with eye discipline, tackling technique, and angles? Or will they want someone a bit more ready-made who may have slightly less athletic ability and ball production?
The answer to that question may come once testing is over and we find out just how many guys truly possess the dynamic explosiveness to be potential impact players at the position.