Could Aaron Rodgers render his decision sooner than he did last year?
Could Aaron Rodgers render his decision sooner than he did last year?
A new wave of reports on Aaron Rodgers' situation suggests that the four-time MVP quarterback might not take as much time to make a decision as he did in 2022.
Good morning!
Sunday saw the AFC and NFC champions crowned, but a different story took centerstage in Wisconsin. A new wave of reports concerning the Green Bay Packers and their four-time MVP quarterback surfaced, albeit ones with more specificity than in the past.
Today's edition of The Leap tries to tell you what these reports could mean for the decision timeline. We also tackle some developments from the post-collegiate all-star games that could impact the Packers.
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On Sunday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that an Aaron Rodgers trade "remains an option" and "league sources believe the franchise prefers to move on from Rodgers." NFL Network's Ian Rapoport later added that the Packers will trade the QB "if in fact that is what he wants."
Does the recent acceleration of Rodgers reports change when you expect a decision on his future?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The Aaron Rodgers news cycle does seem different in 2023 than it did a year ago. Last offseason, rumors and quasi-reports about the quarterback's plans surfaced here and there, but not with this frequently nor with this level of specificity. Rodgers also hasn't played up the prospect of retirement as seriously this time around, seemingly undercutting the idea each time he presents it. That doesn't mean he has privately ruled out retirement, but the desire to continue his career appears to have the upper hand.
If this decision really comes down to playing for the Packers or another team, Rodgers probably doesn't need as much time to render his verdict. If anything, giving Green Bay a longer runway to either build around him or find the right trade partner makes the most sense. The quarterback noted that his contract will require some adjustments regardless of where he plays in 2023, and giving all the parties as much warning as possible will help in that regard.
Crucially, no new information has surfaced out of this report nor Rodgers' recent media appearances. Perhaps all of this boils down to bargaining through the media, a tactic he did take in 2021 when Schefter dropped the news bomb during the first day of the NFL draft. But regardless of the intent, the four-time MVP does appear further along in the process than he was last January.
In 2022, Rodgers and the Packers didn't finalize the details of his extension until March 8, roughly a week before the kickoff of the start of free agency. At least right now, it doesn't sound like we'll have to wait as long for a final answer this time.
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Peter Bukowski: None of the reporting changes the reported timeline, but Jason’s note that decisions will come sooner comes into even clearer focus when taken in the context of Derek Carr’s imminent ouster in Las Vegas. In order to avoid paying $40.4 million in guaranteed money, the Raiders have to get Carr off the roster by the Super Bowl (technically just after on Feb. 15).
Any team trading for Carr jumps out of the Rodgers sweepstakes, but the Raiders suddenly jump in. With that deadline looming, Las Vegas likely already put out feelers on the appetite for players like Rodgers and Tom Brady to head to the desert. They can do that without knowing precisely how Carr will leave Sin City because he’s leaving one way or another.
If Carr winds up in Washington or Carolina for example, the market for Rodgers has a chance to really pop off with the Jets and Raiders each potentially going all-in to trade for him should that become the quarterback’s desired outcome. If we take Schefter at his word the Packers prefer to move on, that’s all well and good. If that’s not Rodgers’ preference, this situation turns murky.
I don’t foresee that being the case, however. Schefter has now reported multiple times both sides know a trade is possible, and the likelihood Rodgers walks away has plummeted near zero. Once the Carr question is answered, we could get the Rodgers news in a hurry.
Assume that Rodgers doesn't retire and requests a trade. Where does he go?
JBH:
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PB: The Jets remain the front-runner for me, but let me make a case for the Raiders. Davante Adams plays there. Maybe I don’t have to continue, but I can. Josh McDaniels coaches there, a coach Rodgers coveted in the Mike McCarthy-replacement sweepstakes, and the Raiders, though impetuously frugal on the whims of Mark Davis, they’ve also shown a willingness to attack problems with big chunks of cash.
Chandler Jones and Adams last season come to mind.
If the Jets trade for Carr or sign him with the belief he’s the more cost-effective option because he’ll be both less expensive in real terms and cost less in draft capital, the Raiders jump to the front of the line in terms of both desirability and resources to make it happen with a Brian Gutekunst favorite, Darren Waller, the No. 7 pick, and an owner with a penchant for aggressive and/or reckless moves.
The three major post-collegiate all-star games -- Senior Bowl, East-West Shrine Bowl, and NFLPA Collegiate Bowl -- went down this week or have at least begun practices. Which Packers-related development from these games has grabbed your attention?
JBH: As general manager Brian Gutekunst hinted at during his season-closing press conference, the Packers still have some tweaks to make with its receiving corps. Rising second-year wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs form a quality foundation for the unit, but the team will look to bolster the group this offseason.
One of the ways Green Bay can improve at wide receiver involves finding more values in the draft, particularly in the slot. To that end, Boston College's Zay Flowers provides an intriguing case study for a front office that has historically eschewed smaller, lighter pass catchers.
Flowers enjoyed a highly productive four seasons at BC, compiling 31 total touchdowns and more than 3,400 yards from scrimmage. He also claims to run the 40-yard dash in the low 4.3-range and, while any player-provided times deserve scrutiny, Flowers does appear to play at that speed on the field.
But from the Packers' perspective, Flowers literally falls short in one major area: size. At the Shrine Bowl, he officially measured 5-foot-9 and a 1/4 inch while weighing 182 pounds. The height falls below the team's typical cutoff -- only Amari Rodgers came in shorter than 5-foot-10 and landed in Green Bay as a draft pick under the current front office -- but the lack of mass will also draw concerns. Since 2000, the Packers have only drafted five wideouts weighing less than 200 pounds (Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, Jared Abbrederis, Trevor Davis, and Samori Toure) and only one below 190 (Davis). None weighed as little as Flowers.
That said, the Packers have bent their rules for special prospects. Most recently, they took Jaire Alexander in the first round even though he didn't meet their height threshold for cornerbacks. Flowers would represent a more significant departure, but not by much.
Given that other franchises increasingly avoid smaller wideouts, Flowers could conceivably remain available until the Packers come on the board in the second round. If that happens, we'll find out how tightly the front office still clings to these thresholds.
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PB: Jason went for the sizzle, I’m going with the steak. Packers assistant offensive-line coach Ryan Mahaffey and fellowship assistant Quinshon Odom will be coaching the American offensive line group at the Senior Bowl.
The Packers consistently make investment in their offensive line via the draft and, though this isn’t a loaded group, a player like Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence projects as a top-50 player. Going back to the Ted Thompson days, the Packers front office values these pre-draft showcases, likely in part because it’s more opportunities to talk with players and in this case coach them.
That means Mahaffey and Odom will have a first-hand account of how these players practice, how they relate to teammates, and how they take to coaching. For teams who tend who stink, they can’t be quite as picky with talent. They just need bodies. But the Packers’ roster is pretty good. Culture and personality fits matter more to good teams.
It won’t be a reason the Packers draft a player, but it could tip the scales if they’re deciding between a pair of prospects. The draft is a lottery, a crapshoot, an exercise in risk mitigation. The more information a team has, the more certain they can be on their evaluation even if overall that certainty should be relatively low given the history of the draft.
We won’t know until after the draft if this impacts the team, unlike Flowers’ draft stock, but it’s still something to watch as we get reports on the standouts from Senior Bowl practices, particularly on the American team. That information is worth flagging as we approach April’s draft.