Don't overreact to Week 1, especially with the 2023 Packers

As it does every season, Week 1 will provide no shortage of red herrings across the NFL.

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On the Friday before the Green Bay Packers' 2022 season opener, I wrote why Week 1 can and often does prove misleading. One-game sample sizes don't represent trends in any context, but the first real game for an NFL team has more variables for which many fail to account.

Remember the Packers' Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints in 2021? Aaron Rodgers and Co. mustered just three points while the defense allowed 38 to a Jameis Winston-led offense, a performance that led many to question Green Bay's ability to contend for a title as well as the quarterback's commitment to the team. To those pundits, it seemed like the end of an era. Instead, the Packers went on to finish with the NFL's best record and Rodgers won league MVP honors for the fourth time.

Need a more recent example? Take last night's Detroit Lions-Kansas City Chiefs tilt. Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes couldn't deliver his trademark magic as his receiving corps seemed allergic to the football. Meanwhile, Detroit signal-caller Jared Goff made his biggest plays on the money downs, including a pivotal 18-yard completion to Josh Reynolds on third-and-12 during the fourth quarter. As a result, the Lions won their season opener for the first time since 2018 while the defending-champion Chiefs fell at Arrowhead Stadium.

All of which underscores how often Week 1 can produce odd results. Some teams require time to settle in after an offseason of change. Others artificially benefit from an element of surprise that won't sustain over the course of 18 weeks. These early games just don't reveal enough data points to support the dramatic reactions that annually spawn around this time.

With that in mind, which elements of the 2023 Packers could cause the strongest Week 1 overreactions? Let's explore.