Dr. Love or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Mega Contract

Jordan Love is about to get paid, and sample size concerns would be the only thing to tamp down enthusiasm over the deal. Is it something to worry about?

Good morning!

The Green Bay Packers plan to sign Jordan Love to a massive contract any day now, and some of you are likely a little queasy about that. It’s a small sample for such a huge investment, and Love threw two bad picks to end the season.

But don’t worry about it. In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain why. Plus, we’ll talk about NFC North division rivalries.

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Jordan Love really only played half a season of sterling football. Is that enough to warrant $50 million a year?

Peter Bukowski: I understand this concern, though it’s been overstated by opposing fans desperately hoping to be right. Jason wrote about the contract machinations in last Monday’s newsletter.

Here’s the thing, Love wasn’t merely good. He was Tony the Tiger good, which is to say, great. The only players to put together an eight-game stretch with 18 touchdowns and one or fewer interceptions are the who’s who of NFL quarterbacks the last 20 years … and Matt Cassel. And the only players to produce at that level of efficiency in their first year as a preferred starter are Love, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. Mahomes and Jackson won MVPs in those seasons.

There’s no historical corollary for a player being as good as Love was and turning out to be a dud. Even the Cassel season, the only true outlier, came after he was excellent in relief of Tom Brady on an all-time team in New England. Circumstances helped Cassel a great deal. No reasonable person can argue the 2023 Packers were comparably fertile to stepping into a roster that had just gone 16-0 the year before.

Cassel’s outlier season came in 2010 under Todd Haley in Kansas City, but it was also Year 7 for him with his former OC in New England on staff while Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe made an All-Pro team.

In fact, that Chiefs team had six Pro Bowl players and the aforementioned two All-Pros. Even that circumstance was significantly better than the one Green Bay plopped Love into last season.

What this tells us isn’t that Love will be a surefire Hall of Fame quarterback, but it strongly suggests he didn’t luck into the stellar play that led the team in the final half of last year and into one of the all-time playoff debuts for a quarterback. Only the best players of the last 20 years at the position have put together a run of eight games that good at any time in their NFL careers, much less than first year starting.

It’s a small sample size out of a career, but playing quarterback is so hard, so challenging to do well consistently that only the very best players can even luck into a half season stretch that good.

After the draft, where do the Packers stand in the NFC North?

PB: The NFC North is more bunched than the fans across Lake Michigan would have you believe. According to Pythagorean Win Expectation, each team in the division ended last year less than a win separated from the one above and/or below it.

1. Detroit Lions - 10.16

2. Green Bay Packers - 9.44

3. Minnesota Vikings - 8.68

4. Chicago Bears - 7.79

This is another way of saying the Lions aren’t as far ahead of the pack (some pun intended) as they’d like everyone to believe. On the other hand, they are still the betting favorites to win the NFCN North and about half of the Vikings’ season came with Kirk Cousins. We have no idea what J.J. McCarthy will be in Year 1.

Ditto for Caleb Williams in Chicago where the Bears have put together a formidable roster around the newly minted No. 1 overall pick. They’re trying desperately to make fetch happen with their new “claw” gesture, but the team is pretty solid. If Williams is even half as good as his press clipping, they’ll be tough.

The Packers can count themselves among the best teams in the NFC though, a place they earned last year with a strong finish despite the youngest roster in the league. As I wrote last week, general manager Brian Gutekunst spent significant resources at need positions this offseason, and Green Bay projects to have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. They have to be at least co-favorites in the division.

What’s the next checkpoint in Green Bay?

PB: June 1. De’Vondre Campbell’s money comes off the books then, and there could be more cuts coming as teams assess their rosters post-draft. Trades could shake up the conference as well with the San Francisco 49ers’ wideout situation becoming more fraught by the day. Remember, there’s no such thing as designating a trade post-June 1; the trade actually has to be completed then which could be what’s been holding back the 49ers from dealing Deebo Samuel.

The Packers could be hoping a veteran cornerback shakes looks in June. Keep a watchful eye on any move made this summer, as Gutekunst has a recent history of finding hidden gems in summer signings. The best example, ironically, is the guy at the top of his section.

Green Bay could wait for Campbell’s contract dollars to come off the cap before extending Love, though the quarterback’s current contract includes the 2024 season. The Packers could choose to frontload his deal, rip up the current contract, and bloat Love’s Year 1 compensation on the cap. More likely, they’ll keep it in place, take their savings, and wait for the bigger cap hits in Year 2 and Year 3.

Over the Cap has Green Bay with roughly $17 million in effective cap space, a calculation that accounts for impending contracts for the 2024 draft class. That number will increase by $10.4 million once Campbell comes off the books, leaving the Packers with more than enough to play with if they want to get creative with a splashy veteran trade this summer.