Finding the next Hasselbeck: Why the Packers draft late-round QBs and who they will target in 2024

The Packers used to regularly draft QBs in the late rounds, uncovering gems like Matt Hasselbeck and flipping them in trades. GM Brian Gutekunst wants to revive that practice.

At the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, Brian Gutekunst dropped a not-so-subtle hint about his team-building plans. When asked about backup QB Sean Clifford, the Green Bay Packers' general manager pivoted the conversation in a different direction.

"Getting back to drafting multiple quarterbacks is something that I've wanted to do," Gutekunst said. "We kind of went away from that for a few years. I'd like to get back to that, because I just think having young, talented quarterbacks on your roster that the coaches can develop, I just think is really healthy and important for a franchise."

Over the last three decades and change, most have thought of the Packers as the NFL team that always has a franchise quarterback. Shortly after Ron Wolf took over as GM in November 1991, he traded a first-round pick for Brett Favre, a second-year signal-caller who saw little action as a rookie. That move planted the seeds for a long stretch of title contention that Aaron Rodgers, Favre's eventual successor, would later extend into the 2020s before passing the baton to Jordan Love.

But while Wolf kicked off Green Bay's unparalleled streak of top-shelf passers, he also built a QB factory behind it. Starting with his first draft as the team's GM, Wolf made a habit of taking a signal-caller outside the top 100 picks, doing so nearly every year for the remainder of the decade. Some of those selections never played a down, but others delivered much, much more. Ty Detmer lasted 14 seasons as a high-end backup. Aaron Brooks became a preferred starter for half a decade. Two others, Mark Brunell and Matt Hasselbeck, developed into Pro Bowlers and true franchise players.

Just as importantly, the Packers flipped many of those quarterbacks in trades. Wolf turned Brunell, originally a fifth-rounder, into picks in the third and fifth rounds. Brooks formed the crux of a trade package that netted a third-rounder and a reserve linebacker. Hasselbeck returned even more, earning Green Bay a third-rounder and allowing the team to jump from the 17th overall pick to No. 10 in the 2001 draft. All that bonus draft capital helped keep the franchise competitive during Wolf's tenure and beyond.

And those lessons resonated with others in Green Bay's front office. The Packers continued to take late-round swings on quarterbacks when Ted Thompson, a former Wolf deputy, took over as general manager. While Thompson didn't do so as frequently as his mentor, he went on to draft four signal-callers outside the top 100, turning multiple of them into future draft picks via trade or the compensatory-pick system.

Reserve quarterbacks can also hold value while they remain on the roster. In 2023, just nine teams started the same player under center for every game. That figure only jumps to 13 when accounting for those who sat out Week 18 as a healthy scratch, meaning more than half the league started a backup in multiple games. Injuries hit the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Las Vegas Raiders the hardest with each going through at least three starters before the regular-season finale. Last year doesn't represent an outlier either as only two QBs started every game in 2022. While Love started every game this past season, the Packers can't assume he won't miss time in the future.

Since Gutekunst took the reins in 2018, he has only drafted one quarterback outside the top 100, the aforementioned Clifford. The Penn State product has only played 16 meaningful snaps in the NFL so far, though his lone pass attempt proved memorable.

"He's absolutely proven he can be a No. 2 and maybe more than that," Gutekunst said. "Sean did a great job in his first year."

Still, Gutekunst apparently won't let Clifford's presence prevent the team from continuing to invest more picks in the position.

"There's some guys with interesting skill sets that are going to get taken later that might have a pretty good chance to make it," the GM said of the incoming quarterbacks.

Gutekunst has largely maintained the draft guidelines of the other general managers in his lineage, Thompson's principles especially. Accordingly, those late-round quarterback selections can provide a window into which prospects the Packers might actually consider this April should they choose to take one.

Building a draft profile

When the Packers have looked for potential franchise passers, they prioritized raw arm talent, football intelligence, and creativity over technical polish. That meant QBs with significantly different backgrounds, traits, and shapes ended up as long-term starters in Green Bay. Favre brought one of the strongest arms in NFL history and a fearlessness to attempt any throw, for better or worse. Rodgers offered a near-perfect balance of down-to-down efficiency and jaw-dropping playmaking. Love finds himself somewhere between the two, at least so far.

However, when it comes to late-round quarterbacks, the Packers do appear to have a more consistent profile. Over the last 20 drafts, each of the five passers they selected outside of the top three rounds -- Ingle Martin, Matt Flynn, B.J. Coleman, Brett Hundley, and the aforementioned Clifford -- measured at least 6-foot-2, played in 32 games or more, and tested as an above-average athlete for the position by Relative Athletic Score. All but one spent multiple seasons as the primary starter, and the lone exception, Flynn, led his team to a national championship. Only Clifford did not receive an invitation to the combine.

Those considerations took precedence over other factors. The Packers did not appear deterred by older prospects as three of the five signal-callers turned 24 or older before the end of their rookie seasons. The club also didn't limit its search to major conferences either, finding Martin and Coleman in the FCS. And while the height minimum seems well established at this stage -- Green Bay hasn't drafted a QB under 6-foot-2 since Wolf selected Detmer and Brunell in the early 1990s, a period before he instituted many of the size thresholds still in use by the team today -- that represents more flexibility than other franchises when it comes to QB stature.

In context, that approach makes some sense. If a QB prospect didn't come with multiple major flaws, a team would have taken him in the early rounds. Accordingly, drafting a signal-caller with extensive playing experience theoretically reduces the number of reps he'll require to get up to speed while his superlative athleticism provides a path to outperforming his college tape.

Filtering out the non-Packers draft prospects

With the Packers' profile for late-round quarterbacks in mind, which prospects from the 2024 rookie class appear off their radar?

First, we can eliminate the signal-callers projected to come off the board during the first two days of the draft. By consensus, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix, and Caleb Williams will all hear their names called within the top 100 picks with most expected to go in the first round. Barring an unforeseeable development, none will last to Day 3.

Next, we can remove most of the prospects that did not attend the combine. While the Packers did make an exception for Clifford in 2023, his uncommonly extensive college résumé -- 51 game appearances and 46 starts, all for a Power Five program -- helped them overlook his absence from the annual pre-draft event.

"For me, I've always thought the amount of time and games you've played in college really does equate to some success at times," Gutekunst said at the combine. "Over my time in the league, that's gone down a lot. These quarterbacks are coming out earlier and earlier and they seem to have less starts under their belt at times. I think the exposure to different schemes certainly can be helpful, but knowing a scheme inside and out at a very, very high level I think would be more important. Because even in our league, if you're constantly switching schemes on a quarterback, it's going to be really, really tough on him to excel at a high level."

Most of the notable signal-callers in this category won't appear on Gutekunst's draft board for one reason or another. Prospects like Ben Bryant, Rocky Lombardi, and Tanner Mordecai made the majority of their starts at non-P5 schools, a difficult hurdle to overcome for a combine snub. Others such as John Rhys Plumlee, and Taulia Tagovailoa miss the cutoff for athleticism, size, or both regardless of their invite status. The Packers could feasibly have interest in one of them as an undrafted free agent, but their track record strongly suggests that none will land in Green Bay as a pick.

As for the remaining combine quarterbacks, several fall short in one key area or more. Sam Hartman and Spencer Rattler offer extensive playing experience (57 and 42 starts, respectively), but both measured too short (6-foot-1 and 6-foot) and tested below average athletically (3.75 and 4.01 by RAS). Devin Leary and Jordan Travis also missed on height (each came in at 6-foot-1) and possibly other metrics as well (neither participated in the bench press, 40-yard dash, agility drills, or jumps during the combine).

All told, the filters leave a short list of potential Day 3 QB targets for the Packers.

Examining Green Bay's targets

While a handful of quarterback prospects remain, not all have checked every box at this point in the evaluation process. One does not have enough testing data to produce an RAS, though the workouts performed thus far suggest he will clear that threshold. Another may or may not have measured tall enough depending on the Packers' willingness to round up his height. Two non-combine invites have the résumé to garner Green Bay's interest but have to prove they possess the requisite size and athleticism to merit a draftable grade.

In other instances, the quarterbacks offer completed draft profiles and compare favorably to those the Packers previously selected in the later rounds. In a general sense, these prospects come with warts. However, their résumé, pedigree, and testing provide reason for Green Bay to believe they can succeed at the next level.

If Gutekunst drafts a signal-caller in 2024, it will most likely come from this group.

Brennan Armstrong, NC State

In many ways, Brennan Armstrong's background and résumé more closely resembles that of the Packers' most recent QB draft pick than anyone else in the 2024 rookie class. Like Clifford, Armstrong spent six years in college (all in a major conference) and saw extensive action in his last four seasons (35 starts and 47 game appearances overall). Despite their experience and accomplishments at major programs, neither received a combine invite.

But while Clifford provided above-average running ability for the position, Armstrong truly excelled in that area. Both at Virginia and NC State, the coaches built Armstrong's legs into the game plan. He finished his career with 1,932 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground, though those numbers don't do him justice. Armstrong has the juice to break ankles and run away from defenders.

Had Armstrong left college right after 2021, he might well have received a combine invite and heard his name called on draft day. Instead, he remained at Virginia through a coaching change from Bronco Mendenhall to Tony Elliott and saw his productivity and stock plummet. This transition didn't just affect Armstrong as his college teammate and future Packers wideout Dontayvion Wicks went from catching 57 passes for 1,203 yards and nine touchdowns during the final year of the old regime to just 30 catches for 430 yards and two scores the following season.

With the path to the NFL stymied by Elliott's takeover, Armstrong pivoted to NC State to take over for the also-transferring Leary. While the fit made sense on paper -- the program helped develop Leary into a borderline top-100 prospect -- Armstrong had his least productive year as a starting quarterback. The back-to-back poor seasons dealt a substantial blow to his draft stock, and surely many teams won't even have him on their board this April as a result.

From the Packers' perspective, Armstrong will have to do more than just explain the disappointing finish to his college career. Virginia and NC State listed the lefty quarterback at 6-foot-2, right at Green Bay's height threshold. As many schools exaggerate the size of their players, Armstrong could realistically measure too short for Gutekunst to consider drafting.

And while Armstrong's tape shows a physically gifted athlete, he must confirm those traits during his pro day. Just as a strong pre-draft workout helped Clifford catch the Packers' attention, Armstrong can do the same by jumping out of the gym.

[Editor's note: Armstrong measured 6-foot-1 and 199 pounds at his pro day.]

Joe Milton III, Tennessee

In at least one sense, the 2024 NFL Draft doesn't feature another quarterback like Joe Milton III. By most estimations, the former Tennessee starter has the strongest arm in the class. Milton put his howitzer on display during the combine's throwing drills, effortlessly driving the football about 70 yards down the field.

That arm strength matches Milton's stature. Officially measured at 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds with 10.25-inch hands and an 80-inch wingspan, he can step into nearly any NFL locker room as the largest signal-caller on the roster. He might also offer the most athleticism. Though he didn't have a full workout at the combine, his 35-inch vertical leap and 10-foot-1 broad jump place him among the top performers at the position historically. If those drills provide any indication, Milton's RAS will come in well above average. He can cross off those last few items at Tennessee's pro day on March 27.

Of the four remaining prospects, Milton leaves college with by far the least game experience. Still, he served as the primary starter for Tennessee in 2023 and Michigan in 2020, finishing his career with 17 total starts and 39 appearances. If not for Hendon Hooker blocking him for multiple years in Knoxville, Milton could have easily started 30-plus games.

Milton didn't perform consistently enough during his collegiate career to push his way into the upper reaches of the draft. His deep ball, while gorgeous when it connects, misses the target at an alarming rate. If he didn't have those flaws, he would expect to hear his name called much earlier.

At the same time, Milton's physical tools surpass those of most quarterbacks available on Day 3. He might never appear in an NFL game, but Milton also has the traits to greatly outperform his collegiate career.

[Editor's note: Milton ran the 40-yard dash during his pro day, clearing the RAS threshold.]

Jack Plummer, Louisville

In a certain sense, Jack Plummer spent his collegiate career as a nomad. He originally committed to Purdue and, after redshirting as a true freshman, competed with future Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell for the starting job over the ensuing three seasons. O'Connell won the job for good midway through 2021, resulting in Plummer's transfer to Cal. The stay in Berkeley lasted only one season before he transferred again, this time to Louisville for his final year of eligibility.

But even though Plummer's road appears long and winding on the surface, it looks different in context. Plummer's entire Purdue tenure came under head coach Jeff Brohm. A season after the two parted ways in West Lafayette, Brohm left for the top job at Louisville, his alma mater. Plummer's final transfer allowed him to reunite with his old coach and return to the offensive system in which he began his college career. So, while Plummer played for three different programs, he essentially spent all but a single season in the same offense.

Gutekunst, of course, values "knowing a scheme inside and out at a very, very high level," something which Plummer offers. Of his 39 career starts, he made 27 in Brohm's offense. Additionally, two of Plummer's three years as the primary starter came under Brohm's tutelage with yet another season evenly split with O'Connell (2020). In total, Plummer appeared in 42 games, all for Power Five programs.

Plummer checks the other boxes for the Packers as well. At his pro day, he measured 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds with good to great marks in all the workouts, good for an RAS of 8.36. That athleticism didn't always manifest in Plummer's play -- he finished his career with minus-18 rushing yards, minus-126 during his lone season at Cal -- but the testing suggests he can provide more juice in that area if given the opportunity.

And Plummer can spin the football. While no one will confuse his arm for Josh Allen's, Plummer has the requisite strength to attack the deep boundaries and over the top of the defense.

[Editor's note: Plummer did not originally feature in this story but made the cut following his pro day.]

Michael Pratt, Tulane

Whereas most of the quarterbacks expected to hear their names called during the 2024 draft went through multiple programs, Michael Pratt took a more traditional route. The former three-star recruit committed to Tulane over offers from a handful of MAC and AAC programs as well as three-quarters of the Ivy League and remained with the Green Wave for the entirety of his college career.

Of course, the decision to stay put had more to do with playing time than anything else. Tulane head coach Willie Fritz installed Pratt as the starting quarterback just a few games into his true freshman season. He never relinquished the job, eventually racking up 44 starts and becoming the school's all-time leader in passing yards (9,611) and touchdown passes (90). Pratt also produced as a runner, compiling 1,147 rushing yards and 28 touchdown runs (fourth most in for a Green Wave player at any position).

When the 2023 college season ended, many expected Pratt to transfer to a larger program. Fritz had already accepted the head-coaching job at Houston and, armed with another season of eligibility due to the NCAA's 2020 COVID policy, the quarterback would have fielded no shortage of enticing offers from blue-blood schools. Instead, Pratt chose to turn pro.

The pre-draft process has played out well for Pratt thus far. By most accounts, he performed impressively during Senior Bowl practices and impressed scouts in the process. Holding one's own against a group of hand-picked, top-shelf draft prospects can go a long way for a quarterback, especially one from a less-heralded program like Tulane.

A month later, Pratt answered some key questions at the combine. He measured 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds while testing as an elite athlete for his position, producing an 8.21 RAS in the process. Few of the signal-callers in attendance had a stronger showing.

From the Packers' perspective, Pratt has all the requisite college experience as well as the physical upside to merit consideration early on Day 3. At the same time, all those positives could result in other teams targeting the Tulane standout before he can even reach that point.

Austin Reed, Western Kentucky

Every few years, a quarterback prospect emerges from the lower reaches of college football. While Austin Reed directly comes from Western Kentucky, he spent the first four years of his career in FCS and Division II. During that time, he quietly developed into one of the nation's most prolific passers and eventually enticed an FBS program to give him a shot.

And Reed made the most of that opportunity. In just two seasons, he threw for 8,086 yards (third most in program history) and 71 touchdowns (second most). Beyond the raw numbers, Reed displayed nifty feet and a feel for pressure that helped the Hilltoppers compete with more-talented opponents.

Even so, Reed must address some concerns for the Packers to include him on their draft board. Though he proved capable of dominating the competition on multiple levels of college football, questions linger about his arm strength and whether he can consistently fit the ball into the tighter passing windows of the NFL. In that way, Reed's evaluation will mirror that of the quarterback he replaced at Western Kentucky, Bailey Zappe. Both joined the Hilltoppers after stints at non-FBS programs and proceeded to light up the scoreboards, but each did so despite their physical limitations.

Reed also needs to perform well during Western Kentucky's pro day. While he did run an above-average 40-yard dash for a quarterback at the combine -- 4.82 seconds with a 1.69 10-yard split -- he didn't participate in the agility drills and jumps. That leaves some major holes in his athletic composite as the 2024 draft approaches.

Additionally, Reed's height falls in a gray area. At the combine, he measured 6-foot-1.5, technically below the size threshold but just tall enough that the NFL will officially list him at 6-foot-2. Does that mean Reed fits Green Bay's profile? The answer depends on the team's willingness to round. Because databases of pre-draft workouts and measurements often lack fractional height information for prospects selected more than 15 years ago, it remains unclear whether the Packers would or wouldn't consider Reed's height sufficient.

Kedon Slovis, BYU

Few quarterbacks experience as many football lives as Kedon Slovis did during his collegiate career. A former three-star recruit, Slovis spent his first few seasons at USC where he became an unlikely freshman starter after his predecessor, JT Daniels, suffered a torn ACL in Week 1. Slovis performed far better than his coaches could have predicted, completing nearly 72% of his passes and throwing for 3,502 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just nine picks. That campaign positioned him for a potentially historic run with the Trojans.

However, Slovis couldn't build on his fast start. While he remained a productive quarterback throughout his time at Heritage Hall -- he finished his USC career with 7,576 passing yards and a 58:24 touchdown-to-interception ratio -- he never quite reached the next step in his development. During his final two years with the program, the Trojans didn't record a win against a ranked opponent and went 9-6 overall in his starts. With head coach Clay Helton fired two games into 2021, Slovis eventually lost the starting job to four-star freshman Jaxson Dart.

Slovis spent the remainder of his college years as a mercenary. Pittsburgh brought him in as Kenny Pickett's replacement in 2022 and BYU took him on after losing Jaren Hall to the NFL. Slovis' play and production didn't match his work at USC, but he served as the primary starting quarterback in both stops.

Yet, despite all that experience, Slovis won't turn 23 until next month, making him one of the younger quarterbacks the Packers could consider in the 2024 rookie class. That relative youth combined with Slovis' athletic profile -- he produced a 9.32 RAS at the combine while measuring 6-foot-3 and 223 pounds -- offers upside beyond that of many Day 3 quarterbacks. Likewise, Slovis' arm talent hints at what he could do in a more stable football environment.

As with any potential late-round pick, Slovis could wash out of the NFL in short order. Certainly, teams will wonder why he didn't advance more during his five seasons and 42 starts. But Slovis has the tools to entice a personnel department and, if taken on Day 3, doesn't have the price tag that quarterbacks with his gifts typically carry.

-- Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. Follow him on social media: @by_JBH on Twitter / @byjbh@bsky.social on Bluesky / @by_jbh on Threads