Fool's (green and) gold defense

Jordan Love threw 3 touchdowns for the second in a row, but the offense couldn't put the game out of reach in the fourth quarter as the defense blew a 12-point lead late.

Good morning!

An ebullient Week 1 gives way to a queasy Week 2 for the Green Bay Packers. That’s not because they laid an egg against the Atlanta Falcons, but because they played so well for three quarters. A blown 12-point fourth-quarter lead in a 25-24 loss may come back to haunt this team come playoff time, but there was plenty to be encouraged about as well.

Today's edition of The Leap dives into recurring issues on early downs, a fool’s (green and) gold defense, and more.

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What happened to the Packers' suffocating, terrorizing defense from Week 1?

Peter Bukowski: The short answer is they didn’t play Justin Fields, but the Falcons are a similar team with comparable strengths and weaknesses. Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith called a better game and Desmond Ridder put together just enough clutch plays to pull out a come-from-behind win.

Two dropped interceptions thrown right to Packers defenders didn’t help, especially as one could have been a house call had Jaire Alexander held onto the ball.

But the bigger issues came on the ground, a copy/paste from any year in during Matt LaFleur’s tenure as head coach. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s unit gave up 211 rushing yards on a whopping 45 carries, including a two-minute drill heavily featuring rookie phenom Bijan Robinson. If teams can do whatever they want running the ball, why even bother throwing against the Packers’ normally very good passing defense and ferocious pass rush?

That said, the Packers also got bit by the same late-down variance that killed the Chicago Bears in Week 1 when Jordan Love conjured magic in those situations. Atlanta managed a meager -0.03 EPA per play on early downs but a marvelous 0.51 EPA per play on third and fourth. That included 1.05 EPA per play running the ball on those later downs.

When Atlanta’s offense got into a third or fourth down and ran the ball, they killed Barry’s group despite what directly preceded them. In all likelihood, that won’t happen that many more times. But all the probabilities and positive EPA in the world won’t give them a win for this game.

How did the Packers offense manage without its three (and later four) best players?

PB: Putting up 24 points on the road without David Bakhtiari, Christian Watson, Aaron Jones, and a full half of Elgton Jenkins in Week 2 of the Love era stands as an achievement. Rookie wideout Jayden Reed once again made timely catches with a pair of touchdowns and fellow rookie Dontayvion Wicks scored to break the game open in the third quarter on a staple “strike” concept.

These are plays the Packers can major in. It’s first down, under center, play-action, and attacking the middle of the field. Any receiver on their roster could be in the Wicks role here and find success.

Unlike last week, Green Bay produced well on early downs and struggled on third downs, particularly in the final quarter en route to three consecutive three-and-outs (though technically the last one was a four-and-out).

LaFleur’s group shined brightest throwing on early downs, but there were times he fell a little too in love with first-down runs for AJ Dillon who struggled to find any footing all game, both literally and metaphorically.

The Packers won’t produce on third and fourth down like they did in Week 1 every game just as opponents won’t execute with ruthless efficiency against them the way the Falcons did on Sunday. But early down play tends to be stickier over time which means we’ll need more games to know the true quality of this offense. For now, this is a week-to-week group.

There are still more easy buttons for the Packers to press such as RPO looks on first down, more play-action, and more designed quick game. There were times when Atlanta manufactured offense for Ridder in precisely the way LaFleur can and often has for Love (like Rodgers before him), but they seem to be experimenting right now to find concepts they can rely on over time.

That continuity gap will close over the course of the season.

What’s going on with David Bakhtiari?

PB: In terms of what it means for the New Orleans Saints in the Packers’ home opener this week? Nothing. They play on grass at Lambeau Field. But that doesn’t mean there’s no “there” there with the mystery around left tackle Bakhtiari’s healthy-ish scratch from Sunday’s game.

LaFleur’s frustration with the daily Bakhtiari updates was visible on his face dating back to training camp 2021. On Sunday, LaFleur pushed back on reporters asking if Bakhtiari sat because of the turf at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

“No, we all know what David has been dealing with this and so, no,” he said after the game.

When asked if Bakhtiari might miss any game played on turf, LaFleur again showed frustration and attempted to evade the question.

“You guys, I’m not going to get into that,” LaFleur said. “We all know this is two years now. I’m not getting into that. It’s probably going to be like this from here on out.”

So … he will miss all the remaining turf games? If so, that would mean the Packers play without their All-Pro left tackle for matchups with the Las Vegas Raiders (Week 5), Detroit Lions (Week 12), New York Giants (Week 14) and Minnesota Vikings (Week 17).

Bakhtiari has been waging (a just and right) war against artificial turf for over a year, not just since BFF Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on turf a week ago. Remember, Bakhtiari returned for the first time at the end of 2021 on a turf surface and mysteriously came out mid-game. He then only played part of the Lions game last year as well, and perhaps we should have made more of him missing Week 1 in Minnesota (though he also missed Week 2 at home for the Bears so the tinfoil hat can remain off the moment).

Bakhtiari’s right too. The data says artificial turf leads to more injuries than grass. There’s a reason FIFA is demanding stadiums switch from turf to grass to host the World Cup coming to the United States in 2026. But he barely practiced ahead of Week 1 and didn’t practice before Week 2. Now, he’s just doing the NFL version of load management because of the playing surface?

Yes, 12 games of Bakthari is a better option than no games, but at what price glory? He’s on a top-of-market contract and will cost over $40 million against the salary cap in 2024. No. 69 is still one of the best in the game when he’s healthy, and trolling Bears fans from the field will only endear him more to a fan base despite a somewhat complicated relationship with him since his 2020 ACL tear (mostly from loud mouth-breathers on the internet).

He was hurt before though. Now? It’s impossible to know the truth for sure even if we were to hear it from LaFleur or even Bakhtiari himself. This is the status quo for now, but don’t expect that to be the case beyond this season, and maybe not even this entire year before the trade deadline.