Jalen Hurts runs over Packers, but Jordan Love shows signs of life
The Packers couldn't stop the Eagles on the ground, but a fourth-quarter appearance from Jordan Love provides a glimmer of hope for the future.
Good morning!
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers took part in one of the most prolific and impressive performances in modern NFL history. A display of prowess so impressive, people will still discuss it more than a decade later.
Of course, those conversations will take place in Eastern Pennsylvania rather than Wisconsin. The Packers defense bottomed out -- we think -- yesterday, allowing the Philadelphia Eagles to rush for the most yards of any team in the era of color television. That ignominious showing reinforces how far Green Bay still needs to go on that side of the ball in order to compete against the NFL's premier teams.
But that proved to be just one major event that transpired on Sunday. The Packers saw their franchise quarterback go down with an oblique injury and their 2020 first-round pick fill in admirably. That provides little solace to the team in 2022, but it could prove mightily impactful come this offseason and beyond.
Today's edition of The Leap examines the big developments from the Packers' 40-33 loss to the Eagles, both good and bad.
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The full severity of Aaron Rodgers' oblique injury remains unclear. However, with the Packers sitting at 4-8, is this the moment to pivot to Jordan Love for the remainder of the 2022 season?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: This is an easy yes for me. Aaron Rodgers won't yield anything to his understudy if it means losing control of his narrative, and that alone would have made such a transition difficult prior to Sunday's events. However, with the two-time reigning MVP already dealing with a broken thumb and picking up an oblique injury, the Packers can justify sitting him for Jordan Love without the move automatically signaling any post-2022 intent.
And just as importantly, Love performed exceptionally well in relief Sunday night, almost 15 years to the day that Rodgers flashed his Hall of Fame talent for the first time while filling in for Brett Favre in a prime-time tilt with the Dallas Cowboys. The hesitation that plagued Love's early play didn't show, replaced by decisive throws made in rhythm. On his first drive, he executed one of the Packers' staple concepts perfectly, hitting rookie wideout Christian Watson in stride on a "Strike" concept for a 63-yard touchdown.
While impressive, Love's best throw came on an incompletion. On the first play after the two-minute warning, the third-year quarterback perfectly placed a throw to Aaron Jones' back shoulder 17 yards down the boundary, allowing the running back to make a catch safely away from the defender and go out of bounds. Jones bobbled the ball -- a rare mistake on an otherwise impressive night for him -- and couldn't corral it before Eagles defensive back Marcus Epps knocked him to the ground.
All told, Love finished the game with only one or two misfires, and none of them egregious. And this performance came against a Philadelphia defense that entered the week ranked fourth overall in DVOA and third against the pass. Without question, this rates as Love's finest performance to date.
Of course, the small sample size doesn't provide proof of concept for Love, who played just two series and attempted just nine passes. But that provides another reason to give the young quarterback some extended run a lost season while Rodgers recovers from his injuries. All parties benefit even if not all will feel happy about the decision now.
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Peter Bukowski: After the game, Rodgers indicated he’d like to play until the Packers are mathematically eliminated and that if scans of his ribs come back clean on Monday, he plans to play against the Bears.
I don’t see any reason for him to play hurt against the Bears, but if he wants one last ride against the team he owns, that’s fine. But Love’s opportunity is coming soon.
There’s a legitimate chance for the Packers to be something close to, if not outright mathematically eliminated coming out of the bye with the Commanders already three full games up in the loss column and holding the tiebreaker. Seattle also sits three games up in the loss column with the Giants and Cowboys more comfortably clear of Green Bay.
In other words, let Rodgers have his fun against the Bears and bring in Love coming out of the bye with the extra time to prepare game plans for Love specifically. The excitement from fans and even the NBC announcing crew provides a glimpse into the feeling around Love and as Jason laid out, Love’s performance against the Eagles impressed enough to amplify that excitement.
Two scoring drives in two chances and several scintillating throws, all while the moment never looked too big for him. It’s time to see what Love can do.
When is the proper time to move on from Joe Barry? When do you think the Packers actually will?
JBH: In my Nov. 18 story, I argued that a DC change so late in the season "probably doesn't matter" given the hole the Packers had already dug for themselves. With two more losses added to the record, the team doesn't have more at stake now than it did two weeks ago. So on paper, a change doesn't seem more reasonable heading into December than it did two weeks ago, right?
Well, that reasoning only goes so far. If a coordinator continuously fails to put his unit in a position to succeed, the head coach sends a message by not making a change.
The Packers appear to have reached that point. For much of the season, defensive coordinator Joe Barry took heat for passive coverages, and deservedly so. While the defense has utilized more man coverage and blitzes, the players frequently don't line up in the correct spots, literally. That proved especially problematic against the Eagles on critical downs, with Green Bay leaving receivers essentially unaccounted for at times. The list of grievances includes the Barry special: third-and-long.
The Eagles gained 13 yards on that third down and moved the sticks the following play. They reached the end zone a few plays later with Jalen Hurts connecting with Quez Watkins for the go-ahead touchdown.
But the pass coverage played second fiddle to the run defense on Sunday. For a time, Hurts seemed like a legitimate threat to run for the full Colin Kaepernick (181 rushing yards by a quarterback) against Barry's unit. Hurts ultimately finished with only 157 yards -- itself an Eagles franchise record for a signal-caller -- while the offense produced more rushing yards than any team since pen met paper on the Geneva Conventions.
The Packers cannot justify retaining Barry. That much became clear before Sunday's game. However, with the defense trending in the wrong direction at an alarming rate, the team probably has more to risk by letting Barry coach out the season than making the change now.
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PB: It’s time. There’s no coming back from one of the worst rushing defense performances in the Super Bowl era. What’s more, this team has meaningful questions to answer from a personnel standpoint about who is and isn’t a foundational piece moving forward. Green Bay must sort the wheat from the chaff and that includes figuring out what some of these players actually are, what they do well, and how they can be utilized.
Keisean Nixon playing well enough to earn the nickel role outright only comes from getting to play there. Rudy Ford playing at safety only happens because Darnell Savage was truly terrible.
It’s time to experiment. Can Quay Walker play more on the edge? What’s the full range of Devonte Wyatt’s game? What if you actually did let Jaire Alexander shadow an opposing team’s WR1? For the Packers to make decisions about what this team needs to be, they have to first get a better picture of what they are besides not very good. This Barry, “Borrow Brandon Staley’s defense without advancing it or adjusting it” plan failed. It’s time for a new plan and it doesn’t make any sense for it to be Barry who comes up with that plan.
Hear input from Jerry Gray, Jerry Montgomery, and even new assistant Aubrey Pleasant and give them chances to mold the defense into a new direction. Any direction is better than the current course.
Have you seen enough from Rudy Ford and Keisean Nixon to believe in either as a starter in the nickel defense next season?
JBH: I feel stronger about the Keisean Nixon part of this prompt, though Rudy Ford has impressed for a player the Jacksonville Jaguars deemed unworthy of a roster spot in September. Nixon looks like a keeper as both a slot corner and a return man, two roles that have caused the Packers innumerable problems during the LaFleur era.
For a defense that frequently appears unable to tackle, Nixon rarely falters. He had just one missed tackle on the season entering Week 12, according to Pro Football Focus, and had some of the cleanest, hardest hits against ball carriers of anyone on the Packers yesterday. His pass coverage has fluctuated more, but he has yet to allow a touchdown and has given up just two completions of 20 yards or more. In the context of Green Bay's defense, that looks stellar.
The Packers have seen enough to warrant another contract. At worst, he provides quality depth at cornerback while serving as a quality gunner and return man on special teams. But he might have much more to offer, and Green Bay has little reason not to give him the opportunity to prove his worth.
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PB: Regardless of the answer, I have to say I underrated Keisean Nixon’s impact and role on this team. I assumed he was a Rich Bisaccia special, someone who would only be on the team to be a special teamer and an athletic veteran backup cornerback. He’s become so much more than that and deserves the chance to at least compete for a starter spot in this defense.
I was more intrigued by Rudy Ford’s defensive ability after watching him in Jacksonville and talking to some people who covered him with the Jaguars. He was an underutilized player there and is proving it for the Packers this season. Ford’s speed and instincts show up consistently on tape and there’s a role for him in Green Bay moving forward.
There’s a chance both guys are starters in 2023 for this defense, and I’ll add I’d love to see Rasul Douglas get a chance at safety in ‘23. Hell, give him a shot in 2022 because Adrian Amos does not look like a third-contract player and Douglas’ lack of foot quickness shows up on the outside. His ability to read and react is elite, plus he’s a terrific run defender, which could set up him nicely to be a safety moving forward.
Let’s see it.
Parting shots
JBH: Regular readers of The Leap have seen interim Wisconsin Badgers head coach Jim Leonhard come up multiple times over the past two weeks. With Joe Barry on shaky ground in Green Bay following the season-long underperformance of the defense, the Packers' previous interest in Leonhard makes him a name to watch as the offseason approaches and the team considers potential changes to the coaching staff.
Now, with the news that Wisconsin has hired Luke Fickell for the full-time job, Leonhard watch can begin in earnest.
Leonhard had more than one reason for turning down the Packers in 2021, but the opportunity to eventually succeed Paul Chryst as the head coach of the Badgers ranked chief among them. With that dream now dashed, Leonhard must turn his attention to other opportunities. He could possibly remain in Madison as defensive coordinator, a situation similar to Fickell remaining at Ohio State as DC the year after serving as the interim head coach. However, it remains unclear whether Fickell or Leonhard have interest in working together.
If Leonhard does leave, he could garner head-coaching consideration from Group of Five programs -- some that don't yet have vacancies -- as well as interest among lower Power Five teams. He could also land with another program as the defensive coordinator and position himself for larger opportunities down the line, a path previously blazed by former Wisconsin DC and current Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda.
However, given the additional work associated with the college game in the advent of name, image, and likeness reform and the transfer portal, Leonhard might find a better work-life balance for himself and his family in nearby Green Bay.
That, of course, assumes the Packers have an opening. As of yet, head coach Matt LaFleur has stood by Barry as his defensive coordinator. That shouldn't come as a surprise given LaFleur handpicked Barry for the job less than two years ago and most teams wait until the offseason to make coordinator changes.
But as the Packers defense continues to flounder, the case for keeping Barry becomes harder and harder to justify. At a certain point, LaFleur has to pull the trigger.
If he does and Leonhard hasn't accepted a job elsewhere, expect the Packers to express interest again.
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PB: One of my favorite things on Football Twitter is the parsing of nerdy offensive line play and Elgton Jenkins’ holding call on a beautiful reach block of Javon Hargrave was no exception.
As soon as it happened, the offensive line gurus and current/former players got on to insist this was a great play, teaching tape even. There’s always a bit of the old “you don’t watch every hockey game, so you don’t understand hockey” mentality in it, but because they’re offensive linemen, I even love that part of it.
If you can levitate a 300-pound defensive tackle and torque him into the ground, you deserve to do it. I don’t even have a take on the technique. The feat of strength alone means the play should count. But in a beautiful “ball don’t lie,” moment, the Packers scored anyway.