Last year's third-and-long struggles explain the entire Packers offseason

In the playoffs, offenses have to be able to conjure clutch plays and Green Bay just didn't have enough around Jordan Love to make it work against the best teams they faced.

One of the keys that inevitably makes the graphic of two out of every three football broadcasts is, “Must stay out of 3rd-and-must-pass.” Most teams aren’t built for it. They don’t have the coaching or the receiver talent, or a quarterback good enough to make it work without one or both. Under Jordan Love, the Green Bay Packers haven’t had that problem overall. Still, their situational failures last year, particularly against the best teams, point directly to how Brian Gutekunst handled the offseason.

In his career, Love has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at turning 3rd-and-longs into positive plays for the Packers. Any time you’re on a chart next to Patrick Mahomes, you’re probably doing something well.

(Chart via Ian Hartiz)

So, then why couldn’t the Packers make the key plays to create rallies last season in the biggest moments? I charted every passing play on 3rd-and-7 or more, but excluded anything over 3rd-and-20 when no offense can reasonably be expected to pick up a first down.

Love went 27/48 for 350 yards with two touchdowns, three interceptions, and three sacks. Those are OK numbers given the situation, but the why is always more interesting. And what I found explains Green Bay’s approach to the offseason, whether directly or indirectly.

Receiver shortcomings

The biggest problem Green Bay faced on its 54 dropbacks in our sample was receivers failing to make plays. Five drops, five pass breakups, two throwaways, and another two “coverage” pressures add up to a serious issue.