Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love aren't worried about "WR1" and you shouldn't be either
Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love aren't worried about "WR1" and you shouldn't be either
Yes, it's about fragility, but not in a "cope" way. By not having to build a gameplan around one player, the Packers can be multiple every week, every drive, every play.
Good morning!
Mandatory mini-camp starts Tuesday for the Green Bay Packers, the closest thing we’ll get to real Packers football until training camp. Green Bay will be quiet, with no holdouts, or contract drama to worry about. That’s true for the moment, but the Packers may have some work to do soon on the financial front.
Today's edition of The Leap focuses on this (silly) question of alpha receivers and who could be next in line to get paid after they take care of Jordan Love.
Thank you for reading and supporting our coverage. You can also support our work by following us on social media:
Jason B. Hirschhorn: @by_JBH on Twitter / @byjbh@bsky.social on Bluesky / @by_jbh on Threads
Peter Bukowski: @Peter_Bukowski on Twitter / @peterbukowski@bsky.social on Bluesky / @peter_bukowski on Threads
The Leap: @TheLeapGB on Twitter / The Leap's YouTube channel
If you appreciate thoughtful, independent coverage of the Packers and NFL, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Your support allows us to serve this community with the stories and reporting it deserves.
As always, thanks for making The Leap a part of your day.
Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love say the Packers don’t need a true, alpha WR1, but are they just coping?
Peter Bukowski: Let me reframe this question: From WR1 through WR5 is there a deeper group in the NFL? The Vikings and Bears have more high-end talent but they’re one injury away from losing a player around whom an entire passing game will be centered. The 49ers have the best claim and think back to the final drive in the NFC Divisional Round: it was Chris Conley and Jauan Jennings making key catches not Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.
One of the most consequential plays in the last 10 years of Packers playoff disasters was to WR4 Scotty Miller. And the game-sealing interception Aaron Rodgers threw to Davante Adams, the best receiver in the league at the time, came at the expense of running the offense and throwing to a wide-open Allen Lazard in the middle of the field against the 49ers in 2022.
In fact, Pro Football Focus found WR3 grade in the playoffs is a better indicator of success, and that’s before we get to the financial implications of not having to pay anything over $30 million a year, something we touched on recently on Locked On Packers.
“I personally don't think it matters,” head coach Matt LaFleur said last week of the WR1 question. “I think if you just look at throughout the course of a season ago, and every season's going to be a little bit different, but all those guys had their moments where they were the leading receiver in a game. I feel really good about the collective unit. The hardest part is we feel so good about them, it's hard to get everybody the amount of touches that you'd like to get, but that's a good problem to have.”
That last bit is a little like in a job interview saying your biggest problem as a employee is you work too hard, but in this case, the team truly does have an incredibly deep bench of receivers who can all make plays.
It was practice squad addition Bo Melton who snagged the first 100-yard game of the season and the touchdown he scored in the playoffs was a special play called for him. Romeo Doubs ate up the Cowboys in the playoffs, while Christian Watson killed the Lions and Chiefs in consecutive weeks. Jayden Reed lit up the Saints and set rookie receiving records; the most productive Packers rookie receiver since Sterling Sharpe.
And Dontayvion Wicks has some suggesting he’s the best of the group!
Don’t lose sight of what’s best for Jordan Love either. In his first year as a starter, he had no crutch. No “F** it, (Player X) is down there somewhere)” guy to bail him out. Six of his 12 interceptions went on targets of Watson, but all of them came in the first half of the season when everyone was trying to get on the same page.
Think of how valuable it was for Love to be able to/be forced to run the play as called. Getting to read out every concept, and learn who wins where all had value to Love and to LaFleur who got the truest test of his young players.
“I think that's one thing that I've always tried to do is just play the play,” Love told reporters last week. “Play the play, go through my reads and find who's open. Don't try and force it because I feel like once you try and lock in on a guy and force it, not great things happen and then you might miss somebody who might be open on the play.”
Rodgers avoided forcing the ball into coverage (until 2022) but he played favorites, particularly late in his career. He could because he had guys like Adams and Jordy Nelson for most of his run in Green Bay. Much of his early-season struggles in ‘22 came before Watson broke out and no surprise Rodgers started playing better late in the season when it became clear Watson was a dude.
Jordan Love is expected to get a mega-deal sooner than later, but will that be it in terms of offseason spending on extensions?
PB: There’s still no extension with Kenny Clark who is moving full-time to three-technique this year, giving him even more pass-rush opportunities. Last year, he thrived in that role, playing his fewest snaps at the nose in his NFL career by a factor of three. He’s heading into the final year of his deal and will count just under $27.5 million on the cap this season. Green Bay can afford that cap hit, but Clark’s deal voids after the 2024 season leaving a $13.7 million dead cap hit in 2025.
Clark will turn 29 this season, but given Clark’s role change away from taking on double-teams every snap, his shot at longevity increases. This scheme change fits his skillset as someone who can win quickly and disrupt the backfield. And he’s coming off a career-high 7.5 sacks last season.
Any other big deals will likely be on hold for the Packers until they can get the structure of the Love deal sorted. That will impact how they might want to structure other contracts with significant guarantees.
It may be Clark’s running mate T.J. Slaton, slated (no pun intended) to play the nose this season, who gets paid first. For the moment, he’s starting ahead of former first-round pick Devonte Wyatt, a more natural three-technique, and big-bodied space eaters are back in vogue as the league lives in sub-package fronts. PFF graded Slaton the second-best defensive tackle from a one-shade last year, behind only Dexter Lawrence.
Slaton will be a free agent next offseason and looking for long-term security. Green Bay may want to avoid a breakout season and lacks an in-house candidate to replace him. Clark will cost more and have more value to the team, but that makes negotiations trickier. Slaton will be cheaper but with plenty of incentive from the team to get a deal done sooner rather than later. Don’t be surprised if his deal gets done first.