Matt LaFleur delivers masterful game plan while curious trend begins to form among Packers wideouts
The Packers won because of their coaching advantage over the Colts. Meanwhile, one of Green Bay's top wideouts appears to have ceded ground to another pass catcher.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers won their 2024 home opener, knocking off the Indianapolis Colts by a score of 16-10. However, the story of this game goes well beyond the box score, as the Packers made significant alterations to their game plan to accommodate the absence of their starting quarterback. Additionally, a curious trend has begun to form among the team's wideout usage, one that could have huge ramifications as the year unfolds.
Today's edition of The Leap explains how the Packers overcame their adverse circumstances on Sunday and looks at a potential problem that could bite them in the rear in the near future.
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The Packers won because they had the coaching advantage
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The last time the Packers had to play a stretch of games without their starting quarterback, Mike McCarthy served as the team's head coach and Brett Hundley as the backup signal-caller. Despite a supporting cast that featured ascending superstar Davante Adams, All-Pro David Bakhtiari, and plenty of returning talent from a squad that reached the NFC Championship Game the previous season, Green Bay fell well short of the mark.
At the time, McCarthy expressed a desire to cater the offense to Hundley's skills. They understood that the then-third-year pro couldn't replicate the play of the normal starter, future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. Instead, the Packers claimed they would build game plans to feature more layups and try to keep the whole offense in more favorable situations.
Of course, McCarthy and his staff either couldn't or wouldn't make those alterations. The Packers mostly rolled with the same plan as usual minus a few shot plays meant only for Rodgers. Unsurprisingly, that approach didn't work, and Green Bay missed the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.
Fast forward to 2024, and Matt LaFleur finds himself in a similar situation. Starting QB Jordan Love has already missed one game with an MCL sprain and the team has reportedly targeted Week 5's tilt with the Minnesota Vikings for his return. Perhaps the timeline shifts if he recovers sooner than expected or hits a setback, but the Packers have to plan for a Love-less existence for a multi-week stretch.
Malik Willis steps into the starting lineup much like Hundley did several years ago. But unlike his spiritual predecessor, Willis doesn't have two years of exposure to the system. He only arrived in Green Bay three weeks ago. That factor only raised the challenge facing LaFleur and his staff entering Week 2.
Still, LaFleur didn't use Willis' lack of familiarity as an excuse.
"It's not like we're dealing with a rookie here who has no background," LaFleur said this past week. "A lot of these offenses do similar things. It's just how do you do them, when do you do them, who you're putting where."
Ultimately, LaFleur made sure his quarterback wouldn't have to carry the burden by himself by materially altering the offensive game plan in a way McCarthy never did. On Sunday, the Packers rushed the ball 53 times, the most by the franchise in a single game since the Jimmy Carter administration. And Green Bay didn't build up that total in the second half after establishing a massive lead; the offense had 237 rushing yards at halftime.
As for Willis, the Packers largely gave him easier passing plays to execute and avoided straight dropbacks as much as possible. When the offense found itself in must-throw situations, Willis made just enough plays to keep the drive alive, aided expertly by Green Bay's talented pass catchers.
And while the box score hardly resembles that of a Love-led offense, the play designs didn't seem out of step. LaFleur simply recalibrated the approach with his available personnel in mind as well as the weaknesses of the Colts defense.
It also bears mentioning that, if not for Jacobs' fumble at the goal line during the first half, the Packers would have effectively put the game out of reach before the Colts scored their first touchdown. Obviously, the execution needs to improve, and the team invited some degree of sloppiness when the coaches decided to only play the starting offense for three snaps in the preseason. The first month of the season tends to have more operational hiccups regardless.
But none of that negatively reflects on LaFleur's game plan for Week 2. If anything, creating so much margin for error with a starting quarterback who arrived less than three weeks ago makes the performance more impressive. LaFleur still doesn't garner the acclaim he deserves nationally, but the Packers should feel thrilled to have him as their head coach.
Christian Watson appears to have ceded ground in the receiver rotation
JBH: For seemingly the offseason, the hierarchy of the Packers' top four wideouts served as the topic du jour in Green Bay. The debate grew so omnipresent that LaFleur did everything but beg reporters to stop asking him about it.
"I want to vomit every time I hear 'No. 1 receiver' to be honest with you," the Packers head coach said midway through training camp.
The exact standing of the wide receivers remains somewhat fluid. However, two weeks into the season, an eyebrow-raising trend has begun to form that merits a closer look.
In each of the team's first two games, Romeo Doubs has led the group in offensive snaps (113 total). Jayden Reed follows in second place with 87, though he has a near monopoly on slot snaps (65, more than double the next highest total on the team). These roles seem relatively cemented and, barring injury, probably won't change too dramatically.
The situation at the other de facto starting spot has unfolded a little differently. In Week 1, Christian Watson played 42 offensive snaps, a noticeably greater amount than Dontayvion Wicks' 31 snaps. That gap narrowed considerably this Sunday with Watson logging 41 snaps and Wicks getting 36. Given how similarly the Packers deploy the two wideouts when on the field, it seems the two have found themselves in a battle for the same piece of the workload pie.
The snaps just tell part of the story, however. Watson did not see a single target on Sunday or touch the ball in any capacity. Given the bespoke nature of the Packers' game plan -- the coaches didn't make Willis go through full progressions when possible -- the lack of work for Watson doesn't read like a mere coincidence. Meanwhile, Wicks saw a team-high four targets, turning those into three catches for 26 yards and a touchdown.
Though it remains early, it does seem like Wicks has eaten into Watson's role. Perhaps the Packers wanted more of Wicks on Sunday because of how his blocking acumen played into the game plan, but that skill set will still matter greatly when Love returns. Watson has a size-speed combination few in the NFL can match, but that alone won't earn him a prominent role.
By season's end, perhaps Watson will restore his place atop Green Bay's receiver hierarchy. He certainly has the talent to do so. But at least for now, the Packers don't seem as motivated to feature him as they have in the past.
LaFleur and Packers daring NFL to investigate them over injury report
JBH: Though it became an afterthought once the game kicked off, the Packers' week-long charade regarding Love and his injury. The Leap covered this extensively on Thursday, and nothing about the situation has meaningfully changed since then. Despite what LaFleur and Green Bay expressed publicly, everyone involved knew Love wouldn't suit up on Sunday. As noted above, the team has targeted Week 5 for his return. Given the reporter involved -- NFL Network's top insider -- one can reasonably conclude the info originated from 1265 Lombardi Ave.
And while some might shrug at the Packers' (likely futile) attempts to gain a competitive advantage, the NFL won't brush it aside so easily. The league has a vested interest in injury reports accurately detailing player health, especially in the age of widespread legalized gambling. The San Francisco 49ers just went through an investigation about their handling of Christian McCaffrey's injury, and that situation seems less contrived than the one involving Green Bay and Love.
LaFleur tacitly acknowledged as much on Friday when he deviated from the standard procedure of issuing the league-mandated injury report at his press conference.
"The injury report will be out at three o'clock," LaFleur said at the time. "We're still working through some things."
The Packers went on to list Love as questionable only to downgrade him to doubtful the following day. The quarterback spent the game in street clothes.
Perhaps the Packers handle the situation more straightforwardly moving forward. They should, as the NFL could punish them for further shenanigans. Last season, the league hit the Atlanta Falcons and then-coach Arthur Smith with fines for violating the injury-report policy. For a severe violation, a team could even forfeit draft picks.
Unless Love goes full Brett Favre -- rarely if ever advisable -- and powers through the injury against doctor's recommendations, the Packers can't justify keeping up the façade. They won't fool their next opponent, and they won't fool the NFL either.
Very informative , thanks
I don't know how relevant the receiver pecking order is right now. Watson's role is likely different without Love at QB, since he's not going to "stretch the field" with Willis at QB. If nothing changes when Love returns, then I'll raise an eyebrow about Watson's snaps.