Nobody's Underdog: Why the Packers are still (rightly) the favorites against the Eagles
The betting public and every sports media platform has Philadelphia on Monday night. We go inside the numbers to point out why they're wrong.
Good morning!
On Sunday, the NFC North and the conference as a whole got a little tougher for the Green Bay Packers. The L.A. Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Detroit Lions all posted impressive wins that suggest they’re currently ahead of the Packers, at least the recent vintage.
That’s where the vibes are right now in Green Bay, coming off a brutal loss to the Carolina Panthers. But in today’s newsletter, we take a look at why the numbers still say the Packers are rightly the favorites.
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The big acronyms still love the Packers
Peter Bukowski: The dork stats don’t care about recency bias; they still like the Packers in this game. Green Bay enters the game 7th in total DVOA, which is efficiency adjusting for schedule, while the Eagles come to Monday night 11th.
Jordan Love and the offense hold the advantage (6th) over Jalen Hurts’s crew (7th), while the defenses are the biggest difference. The 2025 Eagles are definitely not the 2024 version when Vic Fangio boasted the best defense in the NFL.
This defense, though we haven’t seen it with new acquisition Jaelen Phillips, enters play 18th in DVOA, while the Packers are 8th. Yes, they’re still top 10 on both sides of the ball, one of only four teams that can say that, and I mentioned the other three at the top as impressive NFC contenders.
ESPN data scientist Sam Hoppen combines point-based models from around the internet in an attempt to create consensus on team quality. The aim is to show how many points each team would be favored against an average opponent on a neutral field. By his index model, the Packers are .6 points ahead of the Eagles, which would make them roughly 2-point favorites at home. The line opened at Packers -2.5, but has been bet down to 1.5.
In fact, nearly 80% of bets are on the Eagles.
By EPA, the Packers offense is materially better than the Eagles. Green Bay enters play third in EPA/play while the Eagles are eighth. Somewhat surprisingly, the Packers are third in success rate as well, despite their seemingly volatile offense, while Philly checks in 15th.
The Eagles are much higher-variance, despite the narratives surrounding Love and Co. Philadelphia leads the NFL in three-and-out rate, doing so more than twice as often as the Panthers.
No, that stat is not a misprint.
Green Bay managed to make the playoff game a legitimate fight, down a slew of marquee players, because they never allowed the Eagles to hit the big plays their offense relies on to score. Expect Jeff Hafley to follow a similar playbook tonight.
There’s a peculiar betting trend that favors the Packers
PB: Since 2021, teams that have lost as touchdown or bigger favorites that went on to be favorites the following week are 38-14 straight up in their follow-up games.
That’s a strong signal, even if there’s a bit of a sample bias there. Only good teams are likely to be touchdown or greater favorites against anyone in the NFL. And only really good teams are likely to be touchdown or bigger favorites, lose, and still be favored the next week.
Ergo, the Packers are a really good team according to the people whose livelihoods most depend on being right about such things.
A critic will point out the 13.5-point line last week as evidence that even the oddsmakers can be wrong, and that’s true, but all the same underlying numbers here support the Packers again.
The offense is ready to bust out
PB: The winning problem is a red zone problem. In the field of play, Jordan Love is averaging 8.3 YPA and completing over 70% of his passes. In the red zone, those completion numbers plummet to 61%, which is 13th in the NFL.
They’re 11th in points per red zone trip despite being fifth in yards per drive overall.
Last week summarized the issue perfectly: five trips, one touchdown, and a cavalcade of errors. They’re not buttoned up enough to be a scheme-only team down there, but they lack the star talent, particularly without Tucker Kraft to be a “players over plays” team.
Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love have not been able to find the right mix down there so far this season, and some red zone issues cost them the first Eagles game last year in Brazil, as well as opportunities in the playoff game.
Fangio’s defense will allow the Packers to move the ball. Green Bay will move the ball. Their offense is too good generally not to score more points. They’re too efficient, too good on third down, too good in other situations to not be better in the red zone.
The underlying numbers say a breakout is coming.
Monday night would be the perfect time.