Packers beat Panthers but cannot delay moving on from Joe Barry

Getting beat up by Chris Godwin and Mike Evans was one thing, but the worst offense in football setting a season high in every conceivable offensive stat is a deathknell.

Dec 25, 2023

Good morning and Merry Christmas!

The Green Bay Packers pulled out a last-second victory in Charlotte on Sunday, with the emphasis on “last” for a slew of reasons. If there had been just one extra second on the final play for the Carolina Panthers, they would have set up for the game-tying field goal, and this has to be the last game for Joe Barry as defensive coordinator.

Today's edition of The Leap dives into the problem of keeping Barry as captain of a ship everyone knows is sinking, the terrific play of Jordan Love amid chaos, and the return of Aaron Jones.

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If the writing was on the wall after the Buccaneers loss, it’s now in flashing green and red lights on Lambeau Field: Joe Barry’s tenure is over … Matt LaFleur can’t wait.

Peter Bukowski: Green Bay head coach LaFleur wasted his chance at respectability when it comes to Barry. Had he taken the action every reasonable person knew would come at the end of the season anyway, and fired Barry after the Packers’ Week 15 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he could have saved Barry the humiliation of getting pink-slipped on Christmas. It’s a brutal business, but that’s what has to happen now.

This cannot hold. The locker room will engineer a mutiny. And LaFleur walked a dangerous line post-game, blaming the offense for a fourth-quarter run the defense gave up. It’s the kind of “blame it on me” approach that he’s used in the past, but this is different. He put it on the offense. On Jordan Love who was excellent. On Aaron Jones who demolished the Panthers coming off injury. On Dontayvion Wicks who held onto a touchdown pass while taking a shot in the ribs that ultimately forced him from the game.

Compare what he said last week after the Bucs game:

“They're beating us, they're outcoaching us, they're out-scheming us, and they're outplaying us, ultimately … Baker went out and shredded us.”

That’s the way to take accountability for coaching mistakes while still putting the blame where it belongs. But this was what he said after Sunday’s game:

“But it wasn't just on the defense. I mean, offensively, you've got to give them a breather, especially if we're bleeding a little bit defensively. We've got to find a way to put together a scoring drive. We've got to find a way to get some first downs, to allow those guys to recover, recoup. Momentum's a crazy phenomenon and I think they got the momentum in the second half and they were rolling really in every phase.”

That, respectfully, is bulls***.

Under no reasonable circumstances should the worst offense in football hang nearly 400 yards on this group of defensive players. The Panthers set season highs in yards, points, passing yards, explosive plays, and first downs. They very nearly set up the game-tying field goal given just 19 seconds on the clock and no timeouts.

Love and the Green Bay offense scored 30, including 10 in the fourth quarter. This was a two-score game in the final frame. Love answered a Panthers score with one of his own, then drove the team down for the game-winning field goal. The defense almost blew it … again, just like they did against the New York Giants a few weeks ago.

By equivocating and obfuscating, LaFleur is making excuses for a coach in a way he never would for a player, at least not internally. He’s willing to alternate series with his right guards but unwilling to do what is necessary with a defensive coordinator who is drowning?

It sends a message to his team that the standard isn’t the standard for everyone and that’s a dangerous place for a coach to be with a young team.

Jordan Love and the offense were able to mask the stench of their defense

PB: Even with the bed-wetting defensive performance, this time the Packers generated enough offense to out-last it, even if just barely. Love started a bit off, but the talent amassed by general manager Brian Gutekunst made up for it as Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, and Bo Melton all made leaping catches in the early going.

This game encapsulated a remarkable season for Love, currently ranked ninth in expected points added per play, who has produced at a high level without his main contributors around him. In a game without Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, and, in the second half, Wicks, Love finished 17 of 28 with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating well north of 100, a feat he’s pulled off in six of his last eight games going back to Nov. 5.

Sunday once again showcased his command of the offense, getting into favorable looks pre-snap, including calling his own number on the quarterback sneak. And when the play call doesn’t hold, Love consistently demonstrates the ability to win off-platform.

This play shows Love’s development and comfort within chaos. Earlier in the season, perhaps he takes off and runs for the first down. This time he breaks the pocket, stays patient, slows down so he can set his feet if necessary, and fires a dart to Wicks for the touchdown.

Over his last five games, Love completed almost 69% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to one interception, good for a 108.2 rating. This is just who he is now.

Aaron Jones changes this offensive outlook

PB: As we like to say here at The Leap HQ, LaFleur smashed the button.

It’s not a coincidence the two highest-scoring games for the Packers this season came because Aaron Jones dominated, starting in Week 1. Imagine how good this offense could have been all season, how dynamic it can be next season, with a healthy Jones as the tip of the proverbial spear.

On the first drive alone, Jones nearly hit his Underdog rushing total, with 38 yards on four carries. He finished the game with 127 yards on 21 rushes, including a 39-yard scamper. Jones’ explosiveness and elusiveness provide a version of this running game neither of the other backs that played Sunday can provide. For reference, AJ Dillon and Patrick Taylor put together 16 yards on 10 carries.

Dillon appeared affected by the thumb injury and avoided contact, choosing to cut way back or bounce runs outside, two things he rarely does under normal circumstances. The injury affected his confidence in getting downhill and finishing runs in traffic.

What this offense has been without Jones makes his impact all the more stark. Think of what this team can do with a healthy skill group. Imagine how dynamic Love can be with Jones tormenting defenses and vice versa.

That the offense didn’t have to rely on Jones in the passing game despite all the injuries speaks to the stellar talent around Love, in addition to Love’s play and the play-calling prowess of LaFleur. Still, one of the biggest reasons the Packers didn’t require Jones’ pass-catching skills was because he averaged 6 yards per rush. He was killing the Panthers on the ground, keeping Green Bay in good downs and distances, allowing them to remain efficient and average over 7 yards per play.

Playoff prospectus

PB: The only help the Packers got Sunday came from the Minnesota Vikings who lost to the Detroit Lions, giving Dan Campbell’s crew the NFC North title. Green Bay gets Minny this week in a loser-leaves-town match and the Vikings banged up, with Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson each leaving the Lions game with leg injuries. Both Addison and Hockenson are reportedly in serious danger of missing next Sunday’s game.

Beat Minnesota this week and the Packers’ playoff odds soar back over 50%. If they win out, two of the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Atlanta Falcons have to win out as well to keep Green Bay out of the postseason. Most playoff models have the Pack over 90% to make the playoffs if they win their next two games.

That means in Week 17 these games matter for Green Bay in addition to beating the Vikings.

Falcons at Bears
Rams at Giants
Steelers at Seahawks