Packers dispatch rival while establishing new offensive identity
Packers dispatch rival while establishing new offensive identity
After years of centering the offense around the connection between Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, the Packers built the plane out of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in Sunday's win.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers notched their first win of the 2022 season, dispatching the Chicago Bears in a 27-10 decision. Green Bay's running backs literally and figuratively carried the team to victory, establishing a new identity on offense. The game could have looked even more lopsided if not for a pair of fumbles in the third quarter ending or sufficiently kneecapping promising drives. Still, the Packers took care of business and evened their record to 1-1.
Today's edition of The Leap attempts to unpack the performance and put the successes and struggles into the proper perspective.
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The Packers built their offensive game plan around Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and it worked. How flexible/sustainable is that approach moving forward?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: In a certain sense, the Packers' Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon-centric approach has plenty of flexibility. While not every game will allow for 33 combined carries and nearly 200 rushing yards for the duo, Green Bay can deploy their talented running backs in other ways. Head coach Matt LaFleur's playbook already features several ways in which either Jones or Dillon could feature more vertically in the passing game, including deploying them on the rail route featured in most of their mesh plays or the RB seam route attached to several of their four-vertical concepts.
But if the Packers continue to lean on Jones and Dillon as heavily as they did Sunday night, the human element will come into play. Jones has done a remarkable job staying on the field during his time in Green Bay, but the team can't feed a 5-foot-9, 208-pound back that frequently and reasonably expect him not to slow down and stay healthy. And while Dillon's build suggests he can absorb more blows, the Packers need him as fresh as possible for the late-season run.
And touches alone don't fully account for all the wear and tear the two backs will endure given how the Packers use them. While only one at most touches the ball per play, the coaching staff used the two of them at the same time -- the pony package -- far more often Sunday than last week's six snaps. Every down takes something out of the player, and over time those snaps add up. Playing Jones and Dillon together has plenty of value and creates big-play opportunities, but it has a cost.
All of which means managing Jones and Dillons' usage will limit how much the Packers can lean into them over the course of the season. The coaching staff will have to pick the right moments to build the entire plane out of their running backs rather than treat it as a cure-all.
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Peter Bukowski: In a world of two-high defenses, this is how the Packers can dictate terms. They couldn’t consistently beat two-high defenses on the ground last year with the patchwork offensive line, so they relied on the brain of Aaron Rodgers and the virtuoso talent of both Rodgers and Davante Adams. If they’re going to run the ball for 5 yards a pop, that’s a hell of a way to mitigate the loss of an elite receiver.
They won’t do this every week, a game in which Aaron Jones ran for 8 yards in the second half, and his per carry average went down. But their 21 personnel set with Jones and Dillon, with a well of concepts to call in it, will be a nightmare for most teams, especially those built to beat the modern spread offenses around the NFL.
This is the kind of run game that single-handedly beat the Packers in an NFC Championship Game along with a ravenous defense. Given the personnel, the scheme, the quarterback, and the defense, this feels like not only a sustainable approach but the preferred approach for Green Bay moving forward.
The Packers defense gave up another opening-drive score but held the Bears to just three points the rest of the way. Are you more encouraged or concerned about what the unit showed Sunday night?
JBH: The early game mistakes remain a concern, but the Packers dealt with similar issues last season before they evened out around midseason. Keep in mind that every team uses some script -- a set of plays picked for that week's opponent for which the coaches devote more practice and meeting time -- at the start of games. Once that stretch ends, the adjustments from both sides typically dictate the outcome. Against the Bears, the Packers adjusted well and quickly.
More importantly, the defense put the clamps down on a Bears offense from that point forward. After the opening drive, Chicago didn't move the sticks again until roughly midway through the third quarter. Justin Fields finished the game with 70 total passing yards, but that figure falls to an even more ridiculous 48 when accounting for lost yardage on sacks. That adjusted figure marks Green Bay's lowest total allowed in over 15 years.
Certainly, the Bears' weak offensive personnel and still-developing quarterback limited their options against the Packers. But the results still speak to a Packers defense that outclassed its opponent.
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PB: Situationally, this is the best the Packers defense has played in a long, long time. They’ve allowed touchdowns on two red zone trips in five chances and an incredible five first down conversions in 20 third downs. That won’t sustain this all season, but it speaks to what this defense can do when it is forced to play in high-leverage moments, usually in man coverage.
Some teams on some drives will run it down their throats. Most teams won’t be able to do it effectively enough without a penalty or a fumble or a negative play, or without getting antsy to throw it, while also maintaining their efficiency to match the Green Bay offense.
They played faster in this game, deploying an overall more aggressive game plan that mixed in more man coverage and single-high safety looks and dared the Bears to throw it. Even with the ground game gashing, the Packers allowed 10 points, and just 33 total through two games.
They gave up 38 in week 1 alone last season.
Veteran wideouts Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, and Allen Lazard accounted for 143 yards while the rookies combined for 36 receiving yards and contributed to a turnover. Are the veterans better than generally believed and can the rookies realistically catch up this season?
JBH: At least so far, it doesn't seem like the veteran receivers have more to offer than originally believed. The group features several C+ and B- players that can excel when utilized correctly, something the Packers did against the Bears on Sunday. Sammy Watkins can still get behind the defense when given some schematic help (play-action and jet motion to pull defenders from the middle of the field). Randall Cobb can still find the holes in the zone when Aaron Rodgers needs him on third downs. Allen Lazard can use his massive frame to win rebounds in the red zone and seal off defenders in the ground game. They're all specialized weapons rather than traditional lead targets.
Even so, the delta between the veterans and the rookies remains large. Through two games, the Packers have deployed Christian Watson as someone who they believe can work in space with the ball in his hands and can get over the top of the defense, not someone who can beat coverage with nuanced routes over the middle. Romeo Doubs looks dangerous on screens and seems ahead of Watson as a route-runner, but he hasn't done so consistently enough to win Rodgers' trust. Until those conditions change, they will remain ancillary players in the offense.
Of course, this shouldn't come as a surprise or necessarily raise alarms. Even rookie wideouts with more seasoning coming out of college tend to struggle in these areas, and the Packers have committed to working through the growing pains as the season progresses. For all the mistakes Watson and Doubs have committed, they've also made key plays. Doubs' 20-yard gain on a second-and-28 in the second quarter got the offense back on track on what became a touchdown drive. LaFleur singled him out for praise in his postgame press conference.
If the two haven't increased their roles by this time next month, the team might have to shift gears and pursue options on the trade market. But the rookies should show strides in the coming weeks. They might not grow into No. 1 receivers before season's end, but they can develop into starting-caliber wideouts.
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PB: Yes. This is what we thought the receiver room would look like heading into the season with the veteran picking up the early slack while the rookies get up to speed. Essentially all five of the rookie targets were schemed up de facto run game plays on screens, or outlet plays. And the timing on the RPO screen to Doubs was off with Rodgers, a week after the same problem occurred with Watson on the same concept.
Still, Doubs’ 20-yard catch-and-run on 2nd-and-28 provided a spark on a drive that led to points. Watson’s fumble turned out not to be Watson’s fumble, as Rodgers explained after the game, center Josh Myers snapped the ball early.
Lazard made two plays in the passing game, one a third-down conversion and another a touchdown. Cobb put together a similar stat line catching a choice route out of the backfield and a 20-yarder off a second-reaction play. That’s the ideal script for these receivers: Hit one-shot play with Watkins, get Lazard and Cobb situationally involved and scheme up some stuff for the rookies. It works.
Parting shots
JBH: Regardless of how the pass-protection numbers look, Elgton Jenkins provided a huge lift to the Packers offense. As we've covered myriad times on The Leap, his return didn't just improve the team at his spot along the offensive line, it improved another by pushing Royce Newman to his more natural guard position and, in the process, sending Jake Hanson to the sidelines.
Jenkins' quarterback praised his return to action after Sunday's game.
LaFleur went even further, claiming the Packers wouldn't have won without Jenkins.
Jenkins had some mistakes, but no one can deny the boost he gave the Packers. He should feel even more settled next week when the team will need him even more.
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PB: If Justin Fields has aspirations of putting together an ownership bid for the Packers the way Rodgers has for the Bears, he’s gonna have to do better than this.
I think that 20 yard screen pass to Doubs was a true turning point in the game. Converting a first down after 2nd and 28 was huge.
The running game looked very good; but I have to say, Dillan looked a little slower than I expected.