Packers overtake Bears as winningest franchise in NFL history. Was it Rodgers' last game of 2022?
On Sunday, the Packers took sole possession of first place in all-time franchise wins with a victory over the Bears, the team that owned at least a share of that record since the 1920s.
Good morning!
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers moved ahead of the Chicago Bears as the single winningest franchise in NFL history. That the Packers' secured the go-ahead victory in Chicago and rallied from a 13-point deficit to do so only adds to the accomplishment, one roughly a century in the making.
The victory keeps Green Bay mathematically alive for a wild-card berth, but the playoffs remain a pipe dream. With elimination almost certainly on the horizon, the attention now turns to how the Packers will approach the quarterback position once the prospect of the postseason disappears completely.
Today's edition of The Leap looks at the big questions the Packers face heading into their bye week.
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Would Sunday's historic win over the Bears represent a proper goodbye to Aaron Rodgers if, hypothetically, he shuts it down after the bye and retires this offseason?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Certainly, Aaron Rodgers would have preferred to deliver the Packers another Lombardi Trophy in his final game in the NFL. But with that goal seemingly out of hand in 2022 and Rodgers mulling retirement on a yearly basis, securing sole possession of first place in all-time franchise wins represents a fine consolation prize.
For context, such an achievement would have seemed unthinkable when Rodgers entered the world 39 years earlier. The Packers had spent more than a decade in their post-Vince Lombardi tailspin while the Bears would soon after secure their first Super Bowl victory. Even after Brett Favre rejuvenated the franchise in the early 1990s, it trailed so significantly in the all-time win column that catching up would require roughly three decades of sustained success for Green Bay and a mostly dismal run for Chicago.
Well, between two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, the Packers made the once-impossible goal possible, with Rodgers completing the job on the Bears' home turf. Cameras caught Rodgers taking in the moment following the game.
Should Sunday's win proves to be Rodgers' final moment as a player, he leaves as the ultimate Bears killer who took that franchise's place atop the NFL charts in his final appearance. That's quite the walk-off.
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Peter Bukowski: Let me be unequivocal: I believe strongly Aaron Rodgers will play in the NFL in 2023, so it may not be the last time he ever plays the Chicago Bears.
But.
It might not be in Green Bay, which means it could be his final time in this rivalry, one that he’s owned over the course of his career. Last year’s “I own you” Bears game would have been the most fitting send-off in this rivalry, but Rodgers still helped lead them back in the fourth quarter with 18 unanswered (even if Christian Watson did a lot of it).
If the Packers think this truly may be the end of the Rodgers era, I could see them deciding the Rams game in two weeks is the best place to end it. One last game at Lambeau Field, he can wave goodbye to the fans, show his love and then make his decision having experienced that moment. Though we don’t know what the future holds for him, it’s appropriate for the team to give him the chance to take that opportunity should he want it.
Who knows? Maybe he doesn’t. But his sentimentality has grown over the last few years, at least publicly, and “the end,” is clearly something he thinks about.
A conversation between Rodgers and the organization would be appropriate. Everyone understands the contract he signed was year-to-year and Rodgers admitted to contemplating retirement going back to the spring of 2021. The four-time MVP earned the right to have a goodbye at home if he wants one and because this season hasn’t gone the way anyone expected, this probably wasn’t a conversation anyone thought they’d have to have. His season would end in January or February because the team lost in the playoffs or won the Super Bowl. This is weird, but both sides have to be communicative about the situation even if Rodgers doesn’t know for sure what he wants to do in ‘23 and beyond.
Over the next three years, how many wideouts currently in their rookie seasons would you take over Christian Watson?
JBH: This question comes down to upside and opportunity. As discussed above, we don't know how much longer Aaron Rodgers will play nor do we know how well his successor -- perhaps but not necessarily Jordan Love -- will perform in his place.
We also don't know where Christian Watson will take his game. Physically, he offers everything NFL teams look for in a wideout. Those athletic gifts have already begun to manifest, most recently on Watson's game-sealing touchdown.
At the same time, Watson still has plenty of progress to make as a receiver. He can still struggle at times with press coverage due to his limited repertoire of releases and he doesn't accelerate as quickly out of hard breaks as some staple routes require. He can improve in those areas over time, but teams can never just assume development will occur over time.
Additionally, health remains a long-term concern even if some of Watson's injuries seem like just bad luck. The rookie had a knee procedure during the offseason that cost him most of training camp and the preseason as well as multiple hamstring issues during the regular season. He has looked healthy of late, but it remains something to monitor.
Still, Watson has become a genuinely dangerous weapon despite a handful of setbacks early and a significant jump from the FCS to the NFL. He doesn't have to develop into a Davante Adams-level technician to become an alpha No. 1 receiver. He also stretches the field in a way that no Green Bay receiver has since 2011 Jordy Nelson. The future looks very bright for the 2022 second-round pick.
Returning to the prompt, not many rookie has accomplished more than Watson at this point in their careers. Chris Olave has performed like a No. 1 receiver since the New Orleans Saints drafted him and already has the polish to match. Olave also has put up huge numbers despite catching passes from Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Taysom Hill. He looks like the best wideout from this class over the next few seasons.
Olave's former college teammate, Garrett Wilson, also looks like a fantastic young receiver. The New York Jets' first-rounder will finish the week on track for a 1,000-yard season and has become the go-to option on much-have downs. He also doesn't work with an elite quarterback as Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White have each thrown him passes.
Given what we currently know, I would only rate Olave and Wilson as better long-term bets than Watson. I could also see an argument for Treylon Burks given his youth and physical upside, but he seems further behind the development curve than Watson with an overall less favorable athletic profile.
All of which highlights just how impressive Watson has looked so far in his young career. So few of his fellow rookies look like valid competition, and Watson still has plenty of untapped potential remaining. If the league redrafted the 2022 rookie class today, Watson wouldn't last until the No. 34 pick. So far, the Packers' investment looks smart.
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PB: Heading into the draft, I posited there were four players capable of being true No. 1 WRs, that prototypical X in any offense: Drake London, Treylon Burks, George Pickens, and Christian Watson. As much as I liked Chris Olave, he felt more like an Adam Thielen-ceiling type player. He could be your WR1, but the offense would be somewhat limited if he was. He stepped in immediately and showed what he knew already about him with his polish and deep speed, but how much better can he get?
It’s what made him such an appealing Packers target, particularly when it looked like he could be paired with Davante Adams. He was ready to compete right away.
Burks and London are starting to show flashes but will they ever have the game-breaking ability Watson has as a big-play threat? Unlikely. That leaves George Pickens who is tough as overcooked steak, possesses incredible body control and the speed to create down the field.
But he hasn’t produced the impact plays to nearly the same level as Watson has just in the last month alone. That counters any, “But he has Kenny Pickett as his quarterback,” narrative. Watson created a 60-yard touchdown on an in-breaker from Jordan Love that was all Watson after the catch. The touchdown run was beautifully blocked. But if Watson doesn’t have Boeing-level afterburners, it’s not a touchdown.
I think you can make the case right now, there’s no one you’d take long-term over Watson from this receiver class as well as Garrett Wilson and Alec Pierce, and the aforementioned players have played this season. It’s a terrific class. But to Jason’s point, Watson is consistently creating explosive plays despite lacking the polish of Olave. Imagine how dynamic he could be if he developed some.
Before the draft, I suggested there was a top-end outlier outcome for Watson that resembled A.J. Green. A 1, maybe 2% chance it happened. Given the company he’s keeping in the rookie-record books, I might have undersold it.
Had the Packers surrendered a go-ahead score after taking the lead shortly after the five-minute mark, would Joe Barry have lost his job during the bye week?
JBH: Based on how head coach Matt LaFleur has protected his assistants during his press availabilities, it doesn't appear the Packers want to make a change at defensive coordinator during the season. Joe Barry's unit botching a fourth-quarter drive and giving away the lead might have seriously threatened that notion, but I still don't believe LaFleur would have pulled the trigger.
Perhaps this comes down to the Packers lacking a clear interim replacement. For a time, defensive-backs coach Jerry Gray seemed like an option, but the secondary has not lived up to expectations this season. Even on Sunday, the group failed to correctly hand off receivers in zone coverage, allowing Equanimeous St. Brown to get open for a 24-yard gain on the Bears' opening drive. While Barry's job security has become a hot topic in Green Bay, the same discourse should probably apply to Gray.
Regardless, the Packers presumably understand that a change will come this offseason. That might not please their fan base, but an eventual move appears inevitable at this stage.
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PB: I’m with Jason and Sam Cooke on this one: A change gon’ come. It wasn’t likely to happen in season for the reasons Jason mentioned, but keep in mind initial reports had Jim Leonhard staying at Wisconsin just a few days ago. Then on Sunday, new Badger head coach Luke Fickell said the DC position was offered, but Leonhard has not decided yet if wants to return. Remember, he was Matt LaFleur’s first choice.
Could LaFleur have reached out? A backchannel perhaps? If LaFleur could get his former first choice for the job, would he consider a move with Joe Barry? I don’t think anything can be ruled out given the season they’ve had. LaFleur, like many coaches, is loyal to a fault, but Barry wasn’t truly his No. 1 boy to begin with.
It wouldn’t have to happen now either. There could be an agreement with Leonhard that Barry finishes the season but the job is his when the year is through out of respect.
But it could have. It still might. I’m not ruling out anything yet.
Parting shots
JBH: While Romeo Doubs landed on the inactive list again this week, he appears close to returning from the high-ankle sprain he suffered against the Detroit Lions. Now, with two weeks of additional rest and recovery thanks to the bye, the Packers can expect to roll with Doubs and Watson as two of their primary receivers the next time they take the field.
When that happens, Green Bay will get a look at a foundational part of its future. Doubs and Watson have played together already this season, but the coaching staff deployed the latter almost exclusively as a gadget player. With Watson now operating as a real wideout and Doubs already capable of running real routes, the Packers' passing game could look a lot closer to its high-flying form than at any time this season.
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PB: You know that saying about a picture and its worth in words?
