Packers stave off another comeback attempt, but concerns mount as playoffs near
The Packers held off a comeback attempt by the Browns on Saturday. But with two near disasters in as many weeks, Green Bay has revealed deep flaws with little time to fix them.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers staved off a late comeback attempt by the Cleveland Browns to win 24-22. The victory maintains the Packers' lead in the NFC playoff standings and puts them two wins away from the No. 1 seed, an invaluable advantage for a team desperately in need of rest.
Thank you for reading and supporting our coverage. You can also support our work by following us on Twitter:
Jason B. Hirschhorn: @by_JBH
Peter Bukowski: @Peter_Bukowski
Thanks for making The Leap a part of your day.
How worried should the Packers feel about their run defense after Saturday?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The Packers should feel worried about their run defense but not to the level of DEFCON 1. The Browns have an especially deadly running game led by Nick Chubb, one that even COVID couldn't dismantle. Few other teams in the NFL possess a comparable ground game, and none of them appear on Green Bay's remaining schedule nor appear likely to show up at Lambeau Field in the postseason.
The last major test of the Packers' run defense could have come next week, a prime-time matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. At present, the Vikings' Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook remains on the COVID-19 list after testing positive last Thursday. It remains entirely unclear whether he can return in time for Week 17, but with the other issues going on in Minnesota — a depleted offensive line, defensive meltdowns, Kirkland Signature Cousins — Cook's potential to decimate Green Bay appears much lower than Chubb's, assuming the former tests back onto the active roster.
Most of the season, the Packers have allowed inferior opponents to hang around during the second half of games. What must change to prevent that moving forward?
JBH: The shortcomings on defense have taken the brunt of the criticism for the Packers' inability to close out interior opponents of late, but the offense deserves its share of the blame as well. During the second half of Saturday's win over the Browns, the unit produced only three points after halftime. Head coach and offensive play-caller LaFleur seemed content to play against the clock rather than add insurance points that would have effectively put the game out of reach.
"There was that series in the fourth quarter where Ben Braden came in the game," LaFleur said during his postgame press conference. "And, you know, we have a lot of confidence in Ben and it has nothing to do with him. It was more or less just the matchup with him on (Myles) Garrett. Just wanted to give him the opportunity to try to get his feet wet a little bit. I was probably too conservative there.
"When it doesn't work and you got three straight runs and you're going three-and-out, that can get frustrating for guys, especially guys like Aaron and Davante that are the best at their positions. And I never want to take the ball out of their hands and certainly got a lot of confidence in those guys. So yeah, you could argue that we should have been a little more aggressive there."
LaFleur has done a stellar job overall in 2021 with game plans and play-calling, but he hasn't managed as well playing with a late-game lead. Given the Packers' firepower — especially when Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns — should empower him to avoid those third- and fourth-quarter lulls. He knows it. Now, he just has to put that knowledge into action.
What we're seeing/hearing
JBH: Yosh Nijman made his seventh start at left tackle on Saturday, and it probably rates as his best outing to date. For most of the afternoon, the former undrafted free agent drew Myles Garrett, an All-Pro defensive end and candidate for 2021 Defensive Player of the Year. Even with Garrett playing through a groin injury, the matchup looked nightmarish on paper for the Packers.
Instead, Nijman held the superstar pass rusher to just one quarterback hit for the game, the kind of performance more typically associated with David Bakhtiari rather than the Packers' third option at left tackle.
After a less-than-stellar stretch filling in for Elgton Jenkins against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals earlier in the year, Nijman has settled the blindside over the past month. He provides steady pass protection and has demonstrated the type of athleticism the team prizes in its offensive tackles. The Packers have shown no hesitation in sending Nijman to the perimeter on outside runs.
The biggest compliment for Nijman might have come during his brief absence late in Saturday's game. With Ben Braden subbed in at left tackle, Matt LaFleur dramatically downshifted his play-calling, calling three runs before sending the punt team onto the field. Once Nijman returned, LaFleur's aggressiveness returned. If not for a drop by Davante Adams, the Packers would have sealed a win before the Browns' final possession.
With Nijman playing under the final year of his deal, the Packers have a decision to make on him this offseason. At the end of 2021, Nijman will have two accrued seasons under the NFL collective-bargaining agreement, making him an exclusive-rights free agent. Green Bay can offer him a one-year deal at the league minimum and prevent him from negotiating with other teams. With right tackle Billy Turner already at risk of becoming a cap casualty due to the Packers' salary-cap issues, perhaps the more-affordable Nijman steps into the void on a full-time basis.
Still, the Packers could explore other options. The dearth of quality offensive linemen across the league could make Nijman an attractive trade piece, especially given his expected salary. Green Bay could flip Nijman for a top-100 draft pick and keep Turner at right tackle. That scenario probably requires additional maneuvers (cap cuts, contract restructures), but it remains possible.
Regardless of how the Packers handle Nijman this offseason, it has become clear that he should start in 2022, whether in Green Bay or somewhere else.
Parting shots
JBH: Rasul Douglas defies hyperbole. In seven starts, the reserve cornerback the Packers picked up off the Arizona Cardinals' practice squad has managed a team-high five interceptions and two defensive touchdowns, all while providing steady coverage for a secondary that has played without multiple Day 1 starters for extended periods of time. Douglas has exceeded every expectation and given Green Bay more than it could have hoped.
Following Saturday's win, Rodgers and Adams each referred to Douglas as a defensive star and an integral part of a team favored to reach Super Bowl LVI. Douglas gave himself less soaring reviews, which tracks given the quiet demeanor he has shown at press conferences. But regardless of who says what about the former practice-squader, it has become evident that he now ranks among the greatest midseason addition in Green Bay history.
Since the Packers pulled themselves out of the NFL gutter three decades ago, midseason additions have made the difference for each of their championship teams. They claimed Andre Rison off waivers in late November of 1996 to bolster a depleted receiving corps. Rison soon became a starter, catching fire during the team's playoff run and catching the first touchdown of Super Bowl XXXI. Howard Green landed in Green Bay just before Halloween in 2010, taking on a part-time role alongside B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett. Despite a reputation as a run stopper, Green's pressure on Ben Roethlisberger forced a pick-six early in Super Bowl XLV.
What Douglas provides in the playoffs remains to be seen. However, he has already provided as much or more than his spiritual predecessors via game-changing plays.
Keep Nijman, maybe even offer him a long term contract while it would still be affordable. This guy could have been a first round draft pick if he had shown this kind of ability in college. Find me a first round tackle who has played any better, and his measurables and age make him a great long term answer for anybody.