Packing It In: The Packers' playoff push ends with a whimper, franchise's future uncertain
After a late push, the Packers fell one game short of the playoffs. Now, the team must address several major questions as the offseason begins.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers saw their season end on a Jared Goff kneel-down, the final nail in a coffin that nearly shut months ago but didn't fully seal until Sunday evening. The outcome reverses almost two months of positive developments for the team and adds to the ambiguity of an offseason that could head in any number of directions.
Today's edition of The Leap examines where the Packers fell short against the Detroit Lions and looks ahead to the big questions the team must answer in the coming months.
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Which missed opportunity hurt the Packers the most Sunday night?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The Packers left points on the field on multiple occasions Sunday night. However, Aaron Jones' fumble inside the final two minutes of the first half had the most significant negative impact on their chances to win.
Not only did Jones lose the ball on the precipice of the red zone, but the Lions recovered with more than a minute on the game clock and all three timeouts. Though Dan Campbell didn't perfectly manage the clock during the ensuing drive, Detroit did manage a field goal on the final play before halftime. The turnover and the score essentially represent a six-point swing, perhaps more.
The Packers still held the lead at that point and didn't relinquish it until late in the fourth quarter. The Quay Walker penalty and Aaron Rodgers' interceptions -- including the one negated by an unrelated defensive penalty -- held tilt the field to the Lions' advantage. One can reasonably argue for either of those as well as a number of drops as turning points in the contest.
Still, the Packers had a chance to reach the end zone at the end of the half and all but put the game out of reach. They didn't, and the missed opportunity set the stage for the rest of the night.
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Peter Bukowski: For the sake of variety, I’ll say the very first drive. They have first-and-goal at the 5-yard line and gain 1 yard. It’s not just the poor execution in this case, but rather what it represents. We knew going into the game, the red zone would be the key. It was the singular thing that sunk them in the previous meeting and they’re the worst goal-to-go team in the NFL this season.
It’s not a secret this is something that needs a plan. And there was nothing.
No special play. No hook-and-ladder. Just two inside runs in shotgun and a pass play Aaron Rodgers may have been able to find the end zone on if he’s tried it. It was emblematic of the hubris displayed by this team most of the season: They played like they could just roll the ball out and beat this team.
They got punched in the mouth for their arrogance, and now they’re going home.
Will Joe Barry return as the Packers' defensive coordinator in 2023?
JBH: Last week, I wrote that Joe Barry had carved out a path to another season in Green Bay despite months of poor performance by the defense. Much of that argument -- the shift in blitz rate and the transformation in coverage usage -- remains true even as the Packers enter the offseason earlier than in past years.
At the same time, the arguments against Barry returning still hold. The Packers didn't find workable solutions until the final quarter of the season despite having quality players at every level of the defense. And LaFleur will have intriguing options to consider. Jim Leonhard, Green Bay's first choice for DC back in 2021, will not return to the Wisconsin Badgers next season and could finally feel ready to try the NFL. Ejiro Evero will interview for the Denver Broncos' head-coaching vacancy and could garner similar opportunities with other clubs, but he might also become available.
Ultimately, LaFleur would have to believe a third year for Barry and the continuity that provides would outweigh the potential for improvement with a new voice. While the changes made during the bye remain genuinely impressive, they didn't prove to be enough. Unless LaFleur doesn't believe he can land one of his preferred replacement candidates, he probably has to let Barry go.
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PB: In a weird way, Joe Barry’s fate rests with Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers is back and they’re going to try to squeeze one more run with him, then maintaining continuity makes sense. The defense didn’t cost the Packers this game, just as they didn’t cost them the 2021 playoff debacle. In fact, Barry’s defense played extremely well last year in big games and keyed the stretch run this year.
But if they’re going to soft reset with Jordan Love, then making a change fits with a longer-term view of the team. Find someone who can grow and evolve with this squad, a young coach who can bring some fresh ideas to the table and try things as the whole team recalibrates both expectations and its roles.
If Rodgers stays, I think Barry stays. If he goes, new blood makes sense. That does leave open the question of who, if anyone, has to fall on the sword for this season. I think that also depends on the Rodgers situation. I could see a new QB coach if Love becomes the starter with Clements exciting alongside his former protégé. But that’s hardly a scalp for the wall.
How the axe swings and if it swings at all will tell us a lot about how the Packers brass felt about this season and who was ultimately most responsible.
Will Aaron Rodgers return to Green Bay next season?
JBH: Peter and I will probably disagree most strongly on this topic. While Aaron Rodgers just delivered one of his worst seasons as a starter and will enter his age-40 season should he decide to continue playing, he remains the Packers' best option for winning a Super Bowl.
At least publicly, the Packers have said the same. LaFleur stated his desire to continue working with Rodgers during the season and doubled down on them following Sunday's game.
"In my mind, absolutely," LaFleur said when asked if he still wants Rodgers to return next season. "But ultimately, he's going to decide that."
General manager Brian Gutekunst won't speak until later this week or next, but you can expect a similar answer to the one he gave in early December.
"Certainly, that's an offseason type of decision. But surely, yeah," Gutekunst said when asked if he wants Rodgers back in 2023. "I mean, we want all our guys back. We made a big commitment to him this offseason, so that was obviously something that was really important to us."
Of course, Rodgers doesn't have to continue playing. He took about two months after the end of the 2021 season to officially opt into another year by signing his contract extension. His timeline and motivations don't always seem clear, though the nearly $60 million he would earn by returning next season should hold some weight.
Assuming Rodgers eventually decides he still wants to play, the Packers can still put a talented roster around him. The offensive line looks solid even if David Bakhtiari's future with the club appears uncertain in this moment. Zach Tom looks like a keeper after playing multiple positions competently throughout his rookie season and Yosh Nijman, when not dealing with the lingering effects of a shoulder injury, has also played like a starter. All three starters along the interior remain under contract for 2023.
And while the receiving corps looked shaky entering 2022, Christian Watson headlines a more compelling group for next season. That doesn't even account for any pieces the front office could add between now and Week 1. Watson established himself as a rising star in November and played one of his best games in the finale, making a circus catch 45 yards down the field while fighting through pass interference.
Has Rodgers declined since his back-to-back MVP campaigns? Yes, and it seems highly unrealistic to expect him to bounce back in 2023 fully. But he also dealt with multiple injuries during this past year while adjusting to an offense that lost Davante Adams and didn't have a reliable, playmaker in the receiving corps until Watson emerged in November. He would start with that advantage -- and perhaps others -- next season.
And the downside of moving Rodgers on his current contract makes that a less appealing option for all parties involved. And such a scenario assumes that Rodgers would accept a trade rather than threaten retirement. He still holds the cards here.
In my view, Jordan Love represents the one compelling argument to the contrary. He played the best ball of his career during limited action in 2022, and the Packers continue to praise his development publicly and internally. Another year of Rodgers could jeopardize Love's future in Green Bay.
At the same time, Love hasn't demonstrated proof of concept, at least not to the degree that would force a franchise to clear the decks for him. The Packers can sit on Love for another year -- he has little leverage to force a trade -- and use the franchise tag if they don't feel comfortable exercising his fifth-year option. They can also trade him if one of the teams that miss out on the chance to trade a ransom to the Chicago Bears for the top pick.
Could Love become more? Yes, but that doesn't mean he will nor that the Packers can expect him to develop into a genuine franchise quarterback. Rodgers, even in his current form, would upgrade the position for all but a handful of teams. The gap remains wide even if it didn't always seem that way this season.
The Packers won't enter 2023 as an NFC front-runner like they did last year, but that doesn't mean the team couldn't evolve into one anyway. The league shifts constantly, and the talent on Green Bay's roster still exceeds that of most others. Even acknowledging the downside, betting on another year of Rodgers doesn't seem crazy in that context.
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PB: I’m going to sidestep the question and say I’m ready for the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers to be someone else. Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Danny DeVito and his Jersey Mike’s tuxedo, I don’t care.
The Packers can’t keep doing this and expecting different results. The offense is too catered to a quarterback that doesn’t have the consistency and skill he once had. He didn’t quite have it last year either for half the season, but because he had Davante Adams, they made do.
Moreover, Matt LaFleur’s bulletproof résumé suddenly looks a little shakier. This team looked lethargic and underprepared half the season. The offense never came around, at least not the passing game, relying heavily on Christian Watson shot plays to work even until the end. The only thing that worked on Sunday in the passing game was schemed-up stuff to Watson.
If LaFleur isn’t built for the Super Bowl chase—and I’m a long way from being ready to go there—we aren’t going to know as long as Rodgers is the quarterback, though ultimately it is on LaFleur to find the space that is best for the team regardless of the interpersonal quirks of the star QB.
Over the last month, the Packers have been winning on a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers not because the quarterback is Aaron Rodgers. They’ve built a team that won’t work like that and they don’t truly have the resources to change how it’s built, just the quarterback. The right long-term decision, and potentially even the correct short-term decision is to move on from Rodgers.
Will they? Maybe he’ll retire and take the decision out of their hands. I doubt it, but maybe. If I had to guess, I’d say no, Rodgers will be somewhere else because it’s what makes the most sense, but when has the NFL ever made sense?
Parting shots
JBH: Because of the loss, the Packers now hold the No. 15 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. That puts them out of range for the consensus out-of-the-box field-tilters, at least at the premium positions like pass rusher, offensive tackle, wide receiver, etc.
At the same time, the Packers haven't picked in the top half of the draft since 2019. That year saw them land Rashan Gary, a talented but raw pass rusher who came into his own over the past two seasons. That pick also doesn't fall so far out of range for a top quarterback should one fall, opening the door to a trade-back scenario that could fetch Green Bay multiple premium selections. Those kinds of outcomes wouldn't boost the roster as quickly as, say, trading up, but they could set up the franchise for more success ultimately.
Hardly a silver lining for the Packers, but those factors do matter.
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PB: If this is indeed Aaron Rodgers’ final game as a Packer, he’ll be going out exactly as his predecessor: with an interception to end the team’s season. Remember back in 2007, the photo that went viral before things went viral where the Packers had three receivers in the pattern plus a checkdown, and Favre threw to the only covered guy?
The Rodgers heave wasn’t quite as egregious, nor as consequential given the stakes—the Lions loss didn’t directly cost the team a chance at the Super Bowl—but the similarities in their careers ending in such similar fashions can’t be missed.
Each has now publicly flirted with retirement and faced down challenges from upstart first-round draft pick quarterbacks. Each suffered from late-career playoff failures and some media fatigue about the constant “will he/won’t he,” and now would anyone be surprised by a teary-eyed goodbye press conference from Rodgers only to turn around and ask to be traded?
With a trade to the New York Jets being a non-zero possibility proposition, this could get even more spooky.
I'm ready to move-on from Rogers, even if the first year could be rough. I'd be fine with retirement, but it would be great if we could get something in a trade - the King's Ransom option was last year.