Panthers will test the Packers highly-ranked run defense to control clock

The best way for Carolina to try and pull the upset against the Packers is to make it a low possession game, run the ball, and hope for a little variance.

The Carolina Panthers come to Lambeau Field on Sunday with a plan to run the football. And if they can’t, they’ll run it some more. If that doesn’t work, maybe a couple of Bryce Young heaves, but other than that, mostly running. It’s the only thing, on either side of the ball, Dave Canales’ team does with any proficiency, and it’s the only way for the Panthers to control the ball, keeping Jordan Love and Co. off the field.

Underdogs have to reduce the possessions, hope for a flukey play here or there, and increase variance. Over the course of a longer game, the talent of the superior team tends to win out. Running the ball effectively, producing long drives, and keeping an explosive offense off the field is the only chance the Panthers have short of Green Bay serving the game up on a brat-filled platter with a litany of mistakes.

Jeff Hafley’s defense gives up the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season, but have faced among the fewest rushes in the NFL. In other words, they should give up relatively few yards because teams aren’t running that much, trying to catch up. But it’s not just volume. Hafley’s crew ranks 10th in success rate defending the run, and what we see regularly from this run defense is a handful of runs in that 6-12 range and a slew of stops around the line of scrimmage.

The Panthers are fifth in EPA/rush, and 30th in pass rate over expected, which underscores their commitment to pounding the rock. Hafley will likely have to adjust his team’s play style to match.

Teams defend the Panthers with crowded boxes because no one is afraid of their ability to throw it deep (Bryce Young is 31st out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in deep-ball EPA/dropback). Carolina faces light boxes less than half the time, while the Packers play light boxes 85% of the time, the third-most in the NFL this season.