Post-bye questions that the Packers need to answer (besides the obvious ones)
The Packers have plenty of questions to answer coming out of the bye, but not all of the important matters have garnered sufficient attention.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers return from the bye this week. After a strong opening two weeks gave way to back-to-back disappointments, they have plenty of questions to answer.
When can Aaron Banks and Zach Tom rejoin the offensive line? Can the unit start blocking better in the run game? Does Christian Watson come off the physically unable to perform list this week? Will Matt LaFleur reclaim his “all gas, no break” mantra or continue to lean toward conservative in-game decisions? Can Rich Bisaccia’s special-teams units go more than a week without a meltdown?
Those questions matter, but you didn’t need to open today’s edition of The Leap to know that. Instead of covering the obvious topics, this newsletter will focus on the issues bubbling under the surface that nonetheless could have significant impacts on how the Packers perform in the coming weeks and months.
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When will the Packers expand Matthew Golden’s role?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: For a rookie in the Packers offense, Matthew Golden has garnered plenty of opportunities over his first four games. He currently ranks fourth on the team in targets (trailing leader Tucker Kraft by only six) and third in receptions (trailing by five). Golden has also played on approximately 60% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, placing him just nine behind Dontayvion Wicks for the No. 2 spot among the wideouts.
Still, Golden’s role does seem somewhat ill-fitting for a receiver with his physical tools and skill set. In Week 1, he played 70% of his action from the boundary with just five snaps coming from the slot. However, after Jayden Reed broke his collarbone early in Week 2, the Packers shifted most of his responsibilities to Golden. Over the last three games, the rookie has averaged 21.3 snaps from the slot, nearly as many as he played in total during the opener.
And that transition has affected Golden’s opportunities to showcase his speed and playmaking. With Reed sidelined, the Packers have asked Golden to run more of the pre-snap fly motions and work the short and intermediate areas rather than attack defenses vertically.
This decision has material consequences. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Golden has an average separation of 4.1 yards and a catch rate over expected of +11.4%, both near the top of the league among wideouts with at least as many targets. But because of his current role, he averages a pedestrian 1.4 yards per route run.
Golden has already shown signs that he can handle a more featured role. Had Jordan Love delivered a slightly better ball to him on the opening drive of the Washington Commanders game …
… or later in the second quarter …
… then Golden would already have two touchdowns and nearly double his current receiving yardage.
The Packers don’t have to make Golden the focal point of the offense when they next take the field, but they can surely utilize him in a more efficient manner.
How much work can Karl Brooks, Colby Wooden, and the two rookies handle while Devonte Wyatt recovers from his knee injury?
JBH: The Packers won’t place an official designation on Devonte Wyatt for several days, but it doesn’t seem likely that he can play this upcoming Sunday. Head coach Matt LaFleur described the situation as “week to week,” a not-so-subtle suggestion that Wyatt could miss a significant amount of October as he recovers from a knee injury.
On paper, the Packers have enough defensive linemen to cover for Wyatt’s absence. Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden, a pair of 2023 draft selections, will see the lion’s share of the work, while rookies Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson will presumably rotate behind them. Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary can also moonlight along the interior as needed.
Whether that group can actually replicate Wyatt’s production remains entirely uncertain, however. Among those on Green Bay’s roster, only All-Pro Micah Parsons has recorded more pressures or registered a higher pass-rush win rate than Wyatt, according to Pro Football Focus. Wyatt also led the Packers in pass-rush snaps at the time he suffered his knee injury.
At least among the full-time defensive tackles, Green Bay doesn’t have anyone who has delivered at those levels. Brooks has flashed throughout his career and sports a respectable 12.3 pass-rush win rate on the season, but the Packers already have him playing the most defensive snaps of his career by a significant margin. The same applies to Wooden, who has served as the primary nose tackle for the front. In either case, the coaching staff can’t add that much more to their respective plates.
That leaves the rookies to fill the void.
Stackhouse has seen the most action of the two, but he hadn’t played more than 10 defensive snaps in any game prior to Wyatt’s exit in Week 4. One game doesn’t provide proof of concept, but Stackhouse’s pressure rate plummeted, and he struggled to fit the run.
Meanwhile, Brinson has yet to so much as suit up for a regular-season game. He spent the first four weeks of the season on the inactive list, and his deployment in the preseason suggests the Packers view him as more of a five-tech in an odd front. How well he transitions to a rotational role remains anyone’s guess.
Given the rawness of Stackhouse and Brinson, the Packers might have to consider adding to the group. While rookie defensive linemen need reps to make progress, the floor for their performance leaves Green Bay too vulnerable if the team determines that Wyatt won’t return within the next 2-3 weeks.
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst probably prefers to avoid the veteran route, but he has dipped into those waters before. During a win-now 2020 campaign, he claimed Damon “Snacks” Harrison off waivers to bolster the defensive line. The following year, Gutekunst took similar swings on Rasul Douglas and Jalon Smith after the start of the season. Green Bay doesn’t need a name-brand replacement for Wyatt, but a proven player could make a difference.
How will the Packers incorporate MarShawn Lloyd when he comes off injured reserve?
JBH: Though Watson’s impending activation has understandably garnered most of the attention around Green Bay, the Packers have another offensive contributor who can return to the 53-man roster. The speedy, versatile MarShawn Lloyd can also begin practicing as early as this week.
Lloyd, the team’s third-round pick from a year ago, has barely seen the field to date. He appeared in just one game as a rookie due to a combination of injuries and an appendectomy and started this season on injured reserve due to a hamstring issue. The Packers haven’t provided much information on Lloyd since final cuts in early September, and he might still need more time before they officially open his 21-day practice window.
However, once Lloyd’s hamstring has recovered, Green Bay will find itself in a somewhat complicated situation. While he can bolster the backfield with electric playmaking ability that none of the other running backs offer, he has minimal NFL experience and probably can’t handle more than a package of plays at the moment. Meanwhile, Emanuel Wilson continues to run efficiently and has improved as a pass catcher, and Chris Brooks serves as a core special teamer.
So, how do the Packers massage the 53-man roster to accommodate Lloyd when the time comes to activate him? Unless injuries clear a spot, they need to weigh Lloyd’s upside against the more established players on the chopping block. Green Bay doesn’t have to limit the cut candidates to other running backs, but even then, the team will already have to sacrifice someone on the roster fringe to make room for the aforementioned Watson.
And beyond creating space for Lloyd, the Packers need to figure out how best to deploy him as he re-acclimates to the NFL. They’ve carved out a niche for rookie Savion Williams by giving him semi-regular designed touches near the line of scrimmage, and perhaps something similar for Lloyd would help him get up to speed. The running back could also potentially work as a kickoff returner, giving him a chance to showcase his explosivity in space.
Whether Lloyd returns to practice this week or next month, the Packers should already have a decent idea of how to ramp him up and get him action in games.