Putting Malik Willis' performance against the Ravens in context

On Saturday, Malik Willis delivered the best game of his career to date. But for as impressive as he played, his outlook for 2026 remains largely unchanged.

Good morning!

On Saturday, the Green Bay Packers fell to the Baltimore Ravens in one of the most thorough defensive meltdowns of recent vintage. Derrick Henry rushed for 216 yards, the most ever by a visitor to Lambeau Field. Meanwhile, Green Bay suffered even more serious injuries on both sides of the ball, adding stress to an already overburdened roster.

With the loss, the Packers have locked themselves into the NFC’s No. 7 seed, effectively turning next week’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings into an exhibition game.

With the Packers effectively in a holding pattern until the playoffs, today’s edition of The Leap examines the latest spot start by their backup quarterback and sets expectations for his 2026.

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Putting Malik Willis’ performance in context and setting expectations for 2026

JBH: For all the factors that contributed to the Packers falling to 9-6-1, Malik Willis’ play gave them a chance to win. He opened the game with 10 straight completions, and not merely short throws and checkdowns. Green Bay’s first possession began with a shot play to Romeo Doubs, followed by another bomb to Christian Watson for the game-tying touchdown. Willis finished the game 18-of-21 for 288 yards, a touchdown pass, no interceptions, and another 60 yards and two scores as a rusher.

The context surrounding Willis only adds to his performance. According to head coach Matt LaFleur, the backup quarterback took “barely any reps” during practice this week due to his sore throwing shoulder and the illness that sidelined him on Wednesday. Green Bay also gave Jordan Love as many reps as possible in case he cleared the concussion protocol in time to face the Ravens. Willis had his finest game to date despite those limitations.

“He made play after play after play out there,” LaFleur said of Willis. “He was one of the few bright spots on the night in regard to what he was able to do.

“He was dialed in, man.”

Since arriving in Green Bay as a football refugee from the Tennessee Titans 16 months ago, Willis has put together quite the résumé. The Packers have won or at least had a chance to win in the fourth quarter in each of the six games in which he started or played a significant portion of the snaps. He has made massive improvement as a passer -- even if not quite as much as his 972 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 134.6 QB rating might suggest -- and offers a true threat as a runner.

All of which had led to speculation about where Willis, a free agent in March, will play in 2026 and what kind of payday awaits him.

“He’s a special player,” Packers running back Josh Jacobs said of Willis before Saturday’s game. “I’ve been saying this is his last year (in Green Bay). I’ll be surprised if we’ll be able to keep him much longer.”

At this moment, few things about Willis’ future seem clear. That hasn’t prevented reckless speculation, however. With seemingly every big play against the Ravens, one pundit or another opined that Willis would command a giant salary from the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, or some other team without a long-term solution under center.

However, that proved to be just the tip of the iceberg. Some suggested that the Packers might use the franchise tag on Willis and trade him. That notion fails to grasp, among other things, how the market values a quarterback with just six starts in four years. The NFL hardly rolled out the red carpet for the likes of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, or Daniel Jones when they first hit free agency, and each of them had multiple seasons as the starter with at least some stretches of quality play. Willis has certainly performed well in spot starts, but that doesn’t mean the league now views him as a franchise signal-caller.

Just as importantly, the idea of applying the franchise tag to Willis ignores the financial realities facing Green Bay next year. Depending on where the salary cap lands in 2026, the Packers will have to clear between $20 million and $40 million in cap dollars just to conduct their normal business. According to Over The Cap’s projections, giving Willis the franchise tag would immediately add a cap hold of around $46 million, an utterly unpalatable figure.

Barring an unforeseeable development, Willis should garner interest when free agency begins in March. He has made enough progress over the last two seasons either sign for high-end backup money or land somewhere he can compete for the starting job.

But in either case, Willis’ next contract will effectively tie him to his next team for only one season -- a pay-as-you-go deal even if it includes multiple years on paper -- and the compensation will reflect that. Accordingly, anyone anticipating that the Packers will recoup the highest-possible comp pick or more for Willis needs to recalibrate their expectations.

Willis has done a tremendous job reviving his career. He has given the Packers far more than they could have reasonably predicted when they traded a seventh-round pick to acquire him. Willis will use his time in Green Bay as a springboard to a bigger opportunity, one that could plausibly lead to an even bigger opportunity after that. But that doesn’t mean he’ll become the face of a franchise in 2026, something he seems to understand.

“I think what you put on tape is your pitch,” Willis said Saturday. “Obviously, any opportunity would be a blessing. You want to think about that type of stuff, but can’t worry about tomorrow. Today has enough problems of its own.”

Other thoughts and observations

• The Packers probably intended to limit the workload for Jacobs, who nursed lower-body injuries for weeks. However, with the offense unable to block for designed runs, LaFleur likely pivoted to a Jacobs-less approach for the second half. The running back finished with five touches and just 12 snaps. Those low totals do reflect his health, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the team won’t lean on him in the wild-card round. That said, it seems nearly a fait accompli that Jacobs won’t suit up next weekend or will effectively take the day off à la the preseason finale in August.

• Rashan Gary finished Saturday’s game with fewer snaps than both Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness. That will raise some eyebrows, but it makes more sense when looking at his production. According to Pro Football Focus’ initial charting, Gary registered one tackle and zero pressures on 22 snaps with double-digit dropbacks during the first half. Gary didn’t register a pressure after halftime, though he played more sparingly. The Leap has covered Gary’s struggles already this season, but his performance against the Ravens looks like a new low for the beleaguered pass rusher. With a 2026 cap number north of $28 million and the team in need of financial relief, the decision-makers at 1265 Lombardi Ave. can’t hand-wave Gary’s multiyear decline any longer.

• For the first time in over a calendar year, Christian Watson finished a game with 100 or more receiving yards. That necessarily means that Saturday saw him hit triple digits for the first time since tearing his ACL in the 2024 regular-season finale. If the Packers hold out their starters next week, he’ll finish the year with 611 receiving yards (tied for second most of his career) and six touchdown receptions (second most), all while appearing in just 10 games. Injuries have sidelined Watson throughout his career, and that remains a concern moving forward. Still, when healthy, Watson has proven to be one of the most dangerous pass catchers in the league. If Green Bay pulls an upset in the wild-card round, he’ll almost certainly have played a major role.