Questions for the final stretch of the regular season

The Packers can retake the lead in the NFC North and perhaps even gain the inside track for the No. 1 seed in Week 14, but several matters linger over the team as Sunday approaches.

Good morning!

After an up-and-down November, the Green Bay Packers enter the final stretch of the regular season with full control over their hopes at an NFC North title and, thanks to the Los Angeles Rams’ surprising loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, a realistic shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff field.

The Packers’ path to those goals looks far from clear, however. The Chicago Bears have notched victories in their last five games. Granted, they only won one of those contests by more than five points -- Friday’s 24-15 toppling of the Philadelphia Eagles -- but the upcoming matchup in Green Bay hardly seems like an easy day at the office.

Today’s edition of The Leap raises several questions that the Packers will have to answer over the final month and change of the regular season, starting with Week 14’s divisional showdown.

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How will the coaching staff deploy defensive backs once everyone returns?

Jason B. Hirschhorn: The Packers’ secondary spent nearly all of November in a precarious position. Nate Hobbs, one of the primary boundary starters for the majority of the season to that point, succumbed to an MCL sprain. While Hobbs had struggled and even lost snaps to Carrington Valentine, his absence meant that Green Bay stood just one injury away from the untested Kamal Hadden or converted wideout Bo Melton defending the boundary.

And that injury did come. In Week 12, Keisean Nixon suffered a stringer from an out-of-bounds collision with teammate Devonte Wyatt, sidelining the corner for the final three quarters of the game. With Hobbs already down, the Packers called on Hadden, who played the first defensive snaps of his NFL career.

Fast forward two weeks, and Green Bay’s secondary has made it through the worst of the injuries. Nixon returned for the team’s Thanksgiving victory over the Detroit Lions, and Hobbs returned to practice. With the mini-bye providing additional recovery time for the entire roster, it appears possible, if not likely, that the Packers will have every major contributor in the secondary at their disposal when they play for the NFC North lead next Sunday.

But the availability of every defensive back invites questions about how the coaching staff will deploy them moving forward, especially at a time when multiple young players have begun to establish themselves in their current roles.

Before Hobbs’ multi-week absence, it had grown apparent that he couldn’t handle playing full time along the boundary, at least not while playing through his injury. However, Hobbs had previously thrived in the slot, where he saw the majority of his work with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Meanwhile, Valentine had made the case to take Hobbs’ job anyway. The former seventh-round pick has improved considerably in his third season, showcasing sticky coverage even when matched up with physically imposing receivers like DK Metcalf.

Valentine has continued to perform admirably over the course of November. According to Pro Football Focus, he allowed just eight completions, 109 yards, and one touchdown on 17 targets, good for a defensive passer rating of 87.6. Though Valentine didn’t convert a few turnover-worthy throws into interceptions, he still played more than well enough to remain as one of the defense’s starting boundary corners.

All the while, a pair of 2024 draft picks have settled into their respective roles. Javon Bullard, the team’s primary slot corner this season, has improved in pass coverage and as a run defender. By PFF’s charting, his 88.1 defensive passer rating leads all corners on the roster with qualifying snaps, and his 21 stops as charted by PFF rank behind only the Packers’ off-ball linebackers and starting edge defenders. That latter figure ties Bullard with Evan Williams, who leads the defense in takeaways and the secondary in tackles for loss.

All of which leaves the Packers with some difficult choices to make. Once Hobbs returns to the fold, they could plausibly platoon him with Valentine, though that would ignore how the two players have performed thus far in the season. Alternatively, the coaches could shift Hobbs into the slot where he has specialized in the past, but Bullard has done nothing to cede snaps there. And while the staff could supplement Bullard with more opportunities at safety, Williams has played too well to take him off the field.

Hobbs will play somewhere. The Packers still believe that the physicality he offers provides an edge for the defense. But making sure he sees consistent snaps will require some creativity from the coaching staff with everyone healthy.

Likewise, how will the Packers reincorporate Jayden Reed, and how will his return affect the rest of the receiving corps?

JBH: While the matter of reincorporating players to the receiving corps typically involves fewer complications than it does with the secondary, the Packers will still have to strike a balance once their top receivers return to action.

That moment could arrive as soon as this week. On the Friday before Green Bay’s tilt with the Minnesota Vikings, the team opened the 21-day practice window for Jayden Reed. He continued to practice this past week before Thanksgiving’s tilt in Detroit, though he officially remains on injured reserve. All signs point to him rejoining the 53-man roster this week.

And Reed’s return could add an important element to the offense. Since Tucker Kraft’s season-ending knee injury, the Packers have lacked an option in the passing game who can reliably create after the catch. Reed won’t replicate that degree of post-catch production, but he can break and avoid tackles well enough to offer some solutions. Green Bay might ease him in initially, but he should soon have a significant role again.

In the weeks after Reed went down, Golden has seen most of his work in the slot. Conventional wisdom held that, once Reed recovered, Golden would see more action on the outside. That could still happen, but the transition looks less straightforward now than it did back late September. Golden has missed multiple weeks while nursing shoulder and wrist injuries, and though he appears ready to play again, a rookie missing that much time might not hit the ground running.

At the same time, the other top receivers haven’t given the coaching staff a reason to meaningfully reduce their workloads. Christian Watson has essentially reclaimed his job as the team’s lead wideout, and Romeo Doubs’ ability to work the middle and his connection with Jordan Love make him hard to leave on the sidelines. And after Dontayvion Wicks’ breakout performance against the Detroit Lions, he too deserves considerable playing time.

And Savion Williams also weighs into these deliberations. While he has a limited offensive role, the Packers like his upside as a yardage creator and a kickoff returner. He probably won’t eat significantly into the workload of the other receiver, but even a few snaps here and there add up in such a crowded position room.

So, which of the wideouts ultimately sees their share of the snaps shrink? Who ends up in a more limited role in terms of diversity of alignments? Does Matt LaFleur and his staff increase the rate of 11 personnel to accommodate all their receivers? The Packers will have to answer all of these questions in the coming days and weeks, and the plan could pivot as they go along.

Has time run out for MarShawn Lloyd to factor into the offense?

JBH: Purely in terms of roster mechanics, the Packers can bring back MarShawn Lloyd to the 53-man roster at any time. They designated him for return before final cuts in September, and he has supposedly made progress in his rehab from the significant hamstring injury he suffered during the preseason.

“We sent him out west to another group to try to get his body right,” LaFleur said of Lloyd last month. “It sounds like the results are promising, but we’ll see.”

Lloyd has made appearances during recent practices, but he has yet to actually participate in them. The Packers haven’t opened his 21-day window, putting him on a longer return timeline than the aforementioned Reed. Still, with five weeks left in the regular season, Lloyd still has ample time for a ramp-up period before officially coming off IR.

However, getting Lloyd physically prepared for football games represents just one hurdle for the former third-round pick. The Packers will also need to create a roster spot for him and, once activated, decide if they can afford to give him a spot on the game-day roster. And if the team can check those boxes, then the coaches can finally determine how to deploy him on offense.

For a player who has spent the vast majority of his nearly two NFL seasons on either IR or the NFI list, Lloyd faces an uphill battle even if his body doesn’t betray him again.

Finding an open roster spot for Lloyd looks difficult. While Devonte Wyatt will presumably land on IR in the coming days, that spot seems earmarked for Reed. The Packers don’t have any apparent plans to cut one of their current running backs, as Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks have each shined as backups to starter Josh Jacobs. Brooks also plays heavy snaps on four special-teams units.

Given the expected return of multiple wideouts, Will Sheppard might become the odd man out. Still, that only resolves one matter related to Lloyd’s return. The running back has never worked on special teams in the NFL and has only played 32 combined snaps in the third phase during the entirety of his college career. He also hasn’t proven himself as a capable pass protector. That severely limits his utility independent of his extended absence from the football field.

All of which suggests that Lloyd might have already missed his chance to carve out a niche in 2025. His breakaway speed remains enticing, and the Packers would love to add an explosive element to the ground game. However, can they justify making him active on game days when he can only handle a few offensive snaps?

The answer might turn out to be yes, but the chances of that diminish with each passing day.