Revisiting the discourse around Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud
In the offseason, C.J. Stroud got crowned as the next Dan Marino. Meanwhile, Jordan Love faced questions despite performing better.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints this evening on Monday Night Football. Because we can't yet discuss the game, today's edition of The Leap will focus on a months-long development concerning the Packers' starting quarterback and another young signal-caller.
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Revisiting the discourse around Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Back in the comparatively innocent days of the 2024 NFL offseason, a variety of quarterback discussions emerged to fill the football void. Perhaps the most heated of those debates centered around two of last year's breakout signal-callers, the Packers' Jordan Love and the Houston Texans' C.J. Stroud.
While Love and Stroud entered the league three years apart, they each became full-time starters at the same time thanks to the atypical way the Packers approach quarterback development. By essentially any objective measure, both had impressive 2023 seasons and propelled their respective teams to the playoffs. Love led a blowout victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round while Stroud did the same against the Cleveland Browns.
Curiously though, the national discussion around the two passers went in noticeably different directions. Love received plaudits for his 2023 play, but those paled in comparison to Stroud who ended up on a pedestal as the Next Great Quarterback™. The Texans' young signal-caller even garnered comparisons to Dan Marino.
Stroud certainly played above expectations for a rookie quarterback and he deserved credit for that season-long performance. That he did so for a team that had just finished as one of the worst in the league the previous year and had a grand new coaching staff only makes the effort more remarkable.
Only one thing: Stroud didn't outperform Love in 2023 and the Texans offense finished the year as roughly a league-average unit.
First, let's credit the other co-founder of The Leap. Peter has waved this particular flag for months, telling anyone and everyone who would listen about the disconnect between the perception of Stroud and his actual on-field performance. Peter occupied a lonely corner at the time as Stroud spent the offseason as the topic du jour for both the traditional NFL media members and the "ball knowers" alike.
The numbers bear this out as well. In 2023, Stroud finished 13th in expected points added per play (0.124), 14th in adjusted EPA/play (0.135), 20th in completion percentage over expectation (0.2), and 13th in EPA-CPOE composite (0.095). As for the Texans offense, it came in 15th in EPA/play (-0.023) and 13th in EPA/dropback (0.063). While a credible overall performance by Houston and its quarterback, those hardly flirt with the lofty heights of Marino and the Miami Dolphins of the 1980s.
Meanwhile, Love exceeded all those Stroud figures. The Packers' QB ranked fifth in EPA/play (0.156), sixth in adjusted EPA/play (0.163), 15th in CPOE (1.1), and 10th in EPA-CPOE composite (0.111) in 2023. And unlike Stroud, Love managed to produce at this level with the youngest group of pass catchers in modern NFL history and without his All-Pro left tackle and, for much of the year, his top running back and wide receiver. The Packers offense too outperformed the Texans, finishing fifth in EPA/play (0.075) and fourth in EPA/dropback (0.155).
The 2024 season has seen the gap between the two quarterbacks grows even larger. Entering Week 16, Love ranks in the top five in EPA/play and adjusted EPA/play, 17th in CPOE, and top 10 in EPA-CPOE composite. Stroud doesn't come in higher than 25th in any of those metrics.
That would look bad enough for Stroud in any context, but consider too that Love spent most of the year battling lower-body injuries that significantly hampered his mobility and playing style. While those games still count, that doesn't mean they accurately reflect what Love can do when healthy. Taking a look at Love's performance from the Packers' Week 10 bye through the end of Week 15, and the gap between him and Stroud begins to resemble the Grand Canyon.
At the top right of the chart, you can find Love delivering even more EPA/play than MVP front-runner Josh Allen. You'll find Stroud near the bottom left sharing space with Kirk Cousins and Will Levis.
Does this mean that Love should garner MVP consideration and Stroud deserves the same fate as Cousins and Levis? Of course not. Love hasn't played this way all year, and the Texans haven't put Stroud in a position to consistently succeed this season. That context matters.
But it comes back to the main theme. If Stroud had already reached Marino status, the Texans offense wouldn't struggle as much as it has in 2024. In Green Bay, Love has already elevated the Packers offense to among the best in the league. Regardless of how the rest of their careers unfold, Love has played better to this point in time.
As for the Stroud discourse, two things can simultaneously be true:
1. Stroud is on track to becoming a great quarterback.
2. A gap remains between how people generally perceive him and his present-day abilities.
The Texans should still feel good about Stroud's future. However, he remains an unfinished product in Year 2, and that shouldn't surprise anyone. The hype simply outpaced reality with him.
As for Love, he continues to deliver better play than many realize, and the Packers can live happily with that disconnect.
Loving this kind of analysis, Jason and Peter. Keep it coming!