Rodgers-Free Zone: Everything else that mattered from Gutekunst's pressser

Aaron Rodgers served as the main talking point during Brian Gutekunst's season-closing press conference, but the Packers GM discussed more than just the QB.

Good morning!

The Green Bay Packers have transitioned to the next phase of the calendar. All the major members of the organization have now delivered their season-ending media availabilities with general manager Brian Gutekunst closing out the proceedings on Friday. Now, the team has officially kicked off the offseason.

Part and parcel with that transition, Aaron Rodgers' future has become the hot topic in Green Bay. The Leap has already begun to cover the matter in detail, starting with Peter Bukowski's Friday piece making the case to trade the four-time MVP. The other side of the argument will come from Jason B. Hirschhorn later this week.

With so much QB1 discussion ahead, we decided to make today's edition of The Leap a "Rodgers-free zone." Instead, we will dive into the other big developments from the general manager's press conference and what his statements suggest about the team's future.

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Which non-Rodgers development from Gutekunst's press conference do you think matters most?

Jason B. Hirschhorn: The certainty with which Brian Gutekunst discussed David Bakhtiari's future with the Packers stands out the most. As a refresher, the All-Pro left tackle missed six games this season -- two at the start of the season following a late activation off the physically unable to perform list during training camp, another in Week 7 despite a full week of practice, and three more during the final stretch due to an appendectomy -- and also split time or dropped out for extended periods in multiple additional contests. For a player who began 2022 more than a calendar year removed from the initial knee reconstruction and turns 32 in September, everything but the appendectomy-related absences represents long-term red flags.

At the same time, Bakhtiari did resemble his classic form when he did play this past season. Pro Football Focus credited him with just 10 total pressures and zero quarterback hits or sacks over the course of 339 dropbacks. The Packers didn't throw a ton of help his way either, letting Bakhtiari work on an island the majority of the time. Even acknowledging the solid play Yosh Nijman and Zach Tom provided at left tackle during Bakhtiari's absences, the offense just looked better with the All-Pro handling the blindside.

With the Packers in need of significant cap-saving moves in order to bring the core back in 2023, letting Bakhtiari go with the super-cheap Tom or Nijman taking over at left tackle didn't seem wild. But Gutekunst expressed a strong belief that Bakhtiari wouldn't have the same availability concerns moving forward.

"We're hopeful that he's kind of cleared some of those injury hurdles that he had the last few years," Gutekunst said. "I thought he got into a really good groove before the appendectomy which set him back. But then when he came back, he just stepped in and looked like he hadn't missed any time. He's unique that way. I think he got into a really good rhythm in learning how to do what he needed in practice to get to the games. And I'm hopeful that as we get beyond this season, that rhythm will serve him well as we go forward."

Bakhtiari returning for the next season almost certainly means the Packers doing something with his contract. That could mean turning his $9.5 million roster bonus into a signing bonus, perhaps with the addition of void years to further lower the 2023 cap number. The front office could ask Bakhtiari for a pay cut. But the veteran left tackle could refuse, and Gutekunst's confidence that Bakhtiari would return doesn't suggest the team plans to do so at this time.

Regardless, the Packers look likely to have their full offensive line at the start of next season, an advantage they haven't enjoyed in years.

***

Peter Bukowski: I’ll piggyback on the “veteran who some speculated would be cut to save money” theme here and add Aaron Jones and the certainty Gutekunst spoke with about his star running back’s future with the team.

"Certainly, we expect to have him back,” Gutekunst said.

“Obviously, he’s a dynamic player."

Those are two words you want to hear if you’re a Showtyme fan: “certainly” and “obviously.” But there were real reasons to be far from certain. In his four-year, $48 million contract extension, Jones slaps a $20 million cap hit on the Packers this season. That said, the deal was built to be restructured. There is a $7 million roster bonus that can be converted into signing bonus, a trick the Packers already played with Jones’ contract last year around this time.

If they really wanted to get nuts, they could nearly $11 million on the cap in 2023 with a full restructure of the Jones deal. That shouldn’t be necessary because there are other levers to pull financially to get Green bay where it needs to be. But either way, Jones will be a Packer in 2023.

As far as the offseason goes though, that’s not the end of the story because A.J. Dillon is going into the final year of his deal and that puts the Packers in a similar situation to when Green Bay drafted Dillon in the first place back in 2020 with both Jones and Jamaal Williams entering the last years of their deals.

Don’t be surprised by a running back early-ish for the Packers draft.

At this stage, what do you think will be the biggest non-Rodgers decision the Packers make this offseason?

JBH: While the Packers have decisions to make at each of the first two levels of the defense, the ambiguity at safety looks like a chief concern. Adrian Amos will hit free agency, turns 30 in April, and comes off a down year. Darnell Savage remains under contract and finished the campaign on a high note, but the team benched him for a stretch in the middle of the year due to poor performance.

Gutekunst didn't comment on whether Amos would return. He did suggest that Savage might have a brighter future in the slot, further clouding the 2023 outlook at safety.

"I think he's very versatile," Gutekunst said. "When we sat him down in the middle of the season for a little bit and he can back, he played a little bit more in the nickel which I think allowed him to get closer to the ball and make some plays. Certainly, some more urgency out of him. And once he came back. And once he came back, it was good to see (him play) kind of more like he was in his first few years. But when you put him back there, sometimes he gets further away from the ball and he doesn't have his chance to make as many plays."

Even if Savage plays primarily at safety next season, the Packers will need to secure another starter as well as depth. Because Amos will count against the cap even if he doesn't return -- his deal included four void years to spread out a signing bonus -- so the front office could consider a new contract that would keep those figures from accelerating into the 2023 books. Rudy Ford played well for stretches and has value on special teams, but he probably makes more sense as a backup safety rather than a starter. Neither represents an ideal option.

Unless a veteran with some juice wants to come to Green Bay and chase a ring -- and that assumes the Packers have you-know-who still on the roster to make that pitch viable -- the draft seems like the best avenue for finding safety help.

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PB: Let me once again piggyback on Jason’s answer here with this: What about cornerback? Jaire Alexander can play anywhere, he’s proven that. Eric Stokes profiles as a boundary-only cornerback and Rasul Douglas looked unnatural trying to play the slot most of the season. When Stokes got hurt, Savage moved into the nickel role and Douglas got to play outside, something clicked with this defense.

What’s more, a post-bye switch to more Cover 2 and Cover 6 that created all those turnovers suggests more squat coverage on the outside is the best thing for this defense. That means Douglas and Jaire, which leaves Stokes wondering what his role is.

He’s a former first-round pick from just two calendar years ago and one who played extremely well, not just for a rookie but for any corner.

This question dovetails with how they want to handle the safety position. If Savage is the new nickel, and he looked especially good there late in the season and was once again making splash plays and tackling (!), then maybe the move is to let Douglas transition to safety where he can use his read-and-react ability to drive on underneath routes, and his physical coverage style will be best served against tight ends trying to run the seam or play from the slot.

Considering Savage only got back into the rotation because Rudy Ford got the hook, it’s fair to wonder how sold the Packers are on Ford who is an ace special-teams player but has never been a preferred starter at safety for any length of time. The secondary has some talented pieces but fitting them together will be quite the puzzle.

Based on Gutekunst's press conference, do you think the Packers keep Mason Crosby for another year?

JBH: Gutekunst made sure to compliment Mason Crosby during his press conference, saying the veteran kicker "carried us in a few of those games, no doubt about it."

At the same time, Gutekunst juxtaposed Crosby's contract status with other players considered on shaky ground.

"These are all decisions we'll work through this offseason," Gutekunst said. "David's under contract, Mason's not. We're working through all that stuff."

Crosby turns 39 before Week 1 of the 2023 season and exhibited more limited leg strength late of late. He still managed several long field goals this past year, but those kicks looked like line drives rather than high-soaring parabolas. The Packers risk seeing more of his attempts blocked as time goes on as a result.

Green Bay also has to worry about his health. The team carried backup kicker Ramiz Ahmed on the practice squad throughout 2022 and promoted him to the game-day roster on multiple occasions due to concerns about Crosby's availability. The veteran also missed essentially the entire offseason as he recovered from a right-knee injury.

If Crosby returns, one can assume the Packers' shadow GM had a say in making that happen. But even so, Gutekunst highlighted that competition would still come to the position.

"We'll always want competition whether we bring Mason back or not," Gutekunst said. "We're always going to have multiple kickers. I think that's the way Rich (Bisaccia) wants to do things."

The door isn't totally closed on Crosby returning for a 17th season in Green Bay, but he'll have to get really skinny to slip through the opening. At his age and with his recent health issues, I think a younger kicker ultimately ends up with the job.

***

PB: He’s done. Maybe he retires, maybe the Packers don’t offer him and, as a result, he retires. It’s hard to imagine him going to another team just to keep playing given how long he’s been in Green Bay and the relationships he’s forged, but never say never. Who knows? Maybe Rodgers goes somewhere that needs a kicker and Crosby follows him there. Stranger things have happened.

The Packers were having to sign kickoff specialists late in the year for must-win games because they weren’t sure Crosby could handle it. Green Bay hasn’t been in the position to need a kicker for a long time and Mike McCarthy deserves far more plaudits than he usually gets for sticking with Crosby during a tough stretch early in his career.

Crosby made all the biggest kicks of the Rodgers era, including the two monster kicks against the Cowboys in the 2016-17 playoff run. He’s a future Packers Hall of Famer. But for a team that wants to be playing in January to have a kicker they aren’t sure can actually kick in January—I know he made the doinked field goal, but he also missed the shorter doinked field goal a week later—that doesn’t make any sense.

Green Bay is also giving up an advantage they once had with Crosby who had more than enough leg in his prime to bang 50-plus-yard field goals in with seeming ease. Greg Joseph won a game earlier this year from 61 and it seemed banal.

If the Packers want to compete on an even playing field, then this is the perfect time to make that move.