Setting reasonable expectations for Micah Parsons' timeline to return from ACL surgery

Micah Parsons went from looking like his had a chance to return for Week 1, to some suggestions putting his timeline more like mid-season. What is the truth, or at least as close as we can come?

Good morning!

The timeline for Micah Parsons’ return has been a moving target. Earlier this month, Jason laid out the potential timelines and went through a recent history of edge rushers returning from ACL surgery. Armed with more information and some public comments from Parsons (and his brother), let’s take as accurate a look at what to expect as we can.

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What’s the latest update on Micah Parsons’ injury?

Peter Bukowski: There have been a lot of rumors and innuendos in and around social media surrounding the Packers’ superstar pass rusher, so let’s lay out in stark terms what we know for the moment:

• Parsons had surgery Dec. 29th

• He’s instituted a strict ninth-month “no football” rule as he works back

• If he starts on the PUP list, Parsons has to miss at least four games

• A player starting the season on PUP can now practice starting in Week 3

• Nine months from Dec. 29th is Sept. 29th

• Week 3 ends Monday, Sept. 28th

Based on what we know for sure, assuming Parsons sticks to his strict timeline, the earliest he would start practicing is Week 4. Based on recent Packers history with ACL injuries, we can expect three weeks of practice before returning to the field.

If Parsons practiced Week 4, that could have him ready for Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys (pretty juicy), if he stuck to the full three-week ramp-up period. In other words, even if he were eligible to play in Week 5 coming off the PUP list, he likely wouldn’t, as he works to get back in football shape.

This also presupposes he feels 100% healthy when the nine-month rule expires, which, as David Bakhtiari would be quick to point out, is far from a guarantee.

On the other hand, when Christian Watson tore his ACL Jan. 5, he returned to practice Oct. 6, which is nine months, almost to the day, from the injury. Important to note here that’s the injury date, not the surgery date, but the nine-month rule for Parsons was created with input from the team.

From Jason’s piece on Parsons:

“There’s no good outcomes with players coming back early from ACL, especially if you’re having all the other things that are getting fixed up. It’s just all about completing the rehab to the best of our ability, and seeing where we’re at from there.”

Those are Parsons’ own words. If he’s following Watson’s plan, the three weeks of practice ramp-up align with the program Watson followed last season. Though he returned to practice on Oct. 6, Watson didn’t play in a game until 20 days later.

This suggests the Chicago Bears game in Week 5 is likely out for Parsons, a huge blow for a Packers defense that lacks proven pass rush without him. Green Bay held up for 3.5 quarters against Chicago twice last season without Parsons, but on each occasion, it failed to get crucial stops against Caleb Williams late in the game.

Even the Week 6 timeline assumes a best-case scenario, and it doesn’t appear that’s the current reality because Parsons did not have what’s called a “clean” ACL tear. In a clean tear, also called an “isolated” ACL tear, the injury tears clean (hence the name), leaving the other structures of the knee intact.

Earlier this month, Parsons revealed he had a “clean-up” surgery on his meniscus, and added that Tucker Kraft’s ACL surgery was “totally different” because Kraft had an isolated ACL tear. Parsons said Kraft should be back “way before me.”

According to Matt LaFleur, Kraft could be back early in training camp, which would certainly qualify as way before Parsons, though that’s also not surprising considering Kraft tore his ACL almost two full months before Parsons.

But listening to Parsons speak in early June, he sounded like a player who knew he was not likely to be back on the early side of the timeline, even noting the Packers play the Bears twice this season (and not the Cowboys). He didn’t sound like a player who expected to be ready for those games.

“Not only is it hard to accept that I'ma miss more time than what I want, but obviously hard to accept the injury. It constantly replays in my brain,” Parsons said.

“It’s all about knowing when to go … everything is about playoffs and winning football games.”

If Parsons comes out of the ninth-month rule feeling 100% healthy, he still could be ready by around Week 6 if he follows the Watson plan, but given the nature of his injury, that’s an enormous assumption. The Packers need Parsons ready to rock in the playoffs, and have made some improvements to the pass rush this offseason to pick up the proverbial slack.

Brian Gutekunst, Matt LaFleur, and Parsons himself would gladly give up games in the first half of the season to have one of the best players in football healthy for a stretch run and a playoff push to the title.