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The Green Bay Packers have a second-half problem ... and have to find a way to fix it
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The Green Bay Packers have a second-half problem ... and have to find a way to fix it

Peter Bukowski's avatar
Peter Bukowski
Oct 12, 2022
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The Green Bay Packers have a second-half problem ... and have to find a way to fix it
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Outside of Week 1, when the Packers fell behind early and couldn’t mount a successful comeback, Green Bay started games with that classic LaFleur “all gas, no brake,” mentality. The defense would tighten after an early drive allowing points, the offense would catch a rhythm, and the Packers would head to the locker room with a lead. Then, after he was body-snatched at halftime, the Pack would return to the field and look discombobulated on both sides of the ball.

Luckily, the defensive issues appear mostly to stem from approach: Joe Barry devolves into prevent looks, trying not to lose the game rather than dictating terms to win it. Offensively, the solutions appear far more opaque as the answer, for the moment, reduces to the overly simplistic “play better.”

It can be hard to forget because of how some of these games have ended, but the Packers defense shows plenty of promise in the first halves of games. Here’s how they look in the first half through five games:

  • 12th in EPA/play

  • 8th in EPA/dropback

  • 5th in dropback success rate

But in the second half, the numbers flip:

  • 22nd EPA/Play

  • 18th EPA/dropback

  • 19th dropback success rate

On defense, the issue isn’t so much about opponents adjusting as the Packers themselves. To be sure, teams like the Giants called a slew of crossing routes because Green Bay has struggled to defend them, but also because Barry’s predilection for these conservative off coverages with two high safeties make crossing routes nearly impossible to defend because the defensive backs are never truly in a position to play the ball. They’re being out-leveraged having to trail and chase. Even with cornerbacks gifted with 4.2 and 4.3 speed, that’s asking too much.

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