The Leap's final 53-man roster projections for the 2023 Packers
The Leap's final 53-man roster projections for the 2023 Packers
With final cuts just around the corner, The Leap's Jason B. Hirschhorn and Peter Bukowski reveal their final projections for the Packers' initial 53-man roster.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers just wrapped up their final game of the preseason, but now some of their most challenging work begins in earnest. NFL teams have until 3 p.m. CT on Tuesday, Aug. 29 to reduce their roster to 53 players. However, many of those moves will happen sooner, including some players learning of their fate before the end of the weekend.
The Packers won't make their initial 53-man roster official until after the deadline. The Leap won't make you wait that long, however. Check out our final roster projections below.
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Note: Player order does not necessarily reflect starters versus backups. Those projected to begin the regular season on the physically unable to perform list do not count against the 53-man roster limit. Also, injured players that make the initial roster could land on injured reserve soon thereafter. This is because the rules prevent teams from placing them on IR before final cuts and still maintain the ability to return them to the active roster at a later date.
Jason's projection (Aug. 26, 2023)
Offense - 24 players
QB: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford
RB: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Patrick Taylor
WR: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Samori Toure, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DuBose, Malik Heath
TE: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Josiah Deguara
OL: David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Jon Runyan Jr., Zach Tom, Yosh Nijman, Sean Rhyan, Rasheed Walker, Caleb Jones
Defense - 26 players
DL: Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, T.J. Slaton, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks, Jonathan Ford
OLB: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Justin Hollins, Brenton Cox Jr.
ILB: De'Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Tariq Carpenter
CB: Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, Corey Ballentine
S: Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford, Jonathan Owens, Dallin Leavitt, Anthony Johnson Jr.
Specialists - 3 players
K: Anders Carlson
P: Pat O'Donnell
LS: Matt Orzech
PUP: CB Eric Stokes
Jason's hardest decision (cut or keep): I went back and forth on whether to keep three running backs and which one to prioritize after Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. From an upside standpoint, both Tyler Goodson and Emanuel Wilson displayed the most promise during training camp and the preseason. Lew Nichols III also offers promise even if he hasn't seen much action since Green Bay drafted him in April. However, the Packers ultimately consider their third tailback as a special-teamer first rather than a ball carrier. They also give preference to those who can pass protect.
Those factors favor Taylor who serves on four special-teams units and, at present, can hold up better against a pass rusher than Goodson, Wilson, and Nichols. The Packers can cut Goodson, Wilson, and Nichols and bring back one or more to the practice squad. Even if both land elsewhere, the offense should survive. Teams can more easily replace running backs than players at any other skill position.
Jason's most surprising decision (cut or keep): I didn't go into this process expecting to keep only three tight ends on the initial 53. However, with none of the in-house candidates making a strong case for a roster spot and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur openly saying that the team has "used offensive linemen there in the past" when directly asked about retaining fewer than four tight ends, forcing someone like Austin Allen into the projection didn't seem like a smart bet.
Given that the fourth tight end has largely served as a special-teams ace in the recent past, the Packers can find another similar body to handle those responsibilities. The extra linebackers, both outside and inside, can contribute there.
Jason's top target for the practice squad: Given the light tight-end room, bringing back Austin Allen as a member of the practice squad looks like a high priority for the Packers. While Emanuel Wilson looks like the most exciting practice-squad target, the sheer volume of running backs and the general fungibility of the position push him down the to-do list. Conversely, Green Bay currently has only one tight end after the top three guys.
Peter's thoughts: It says something that Jason cut a 2021 preferred starter along the offensive line, Royce Newman, and it doesn’t even warrant a mention from him here. Both Jason and I believe a trade for one of these offensive linemen makes sense, and he wrote about it a bit earlier in the week. I have Newman on my roster currently because I’m not convinced he’s the guy who makes the most sense in a trade.
If Rasheed Walker flat out beats Yosh Nijman for the third tackle spot and Caleb Jones becomes a player worth rostering (Jason and I agree he is), then Nijman hits that sweet spot of Packers’ positional surplus and outside value. Nijman could start at tackle for half the teams in the league tomorrow. He has far more value than Newman.
Still, Newman is one of just two backup interior offensive lineman even close to making the roster with Jake Hanson waived injured. Hard to keep him off the team unless someone bowls them over with a trade offer.
Peter's projection (Aug. 26, 2023)
Offense - 25 players
QB: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford
RB: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon
WR: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Samori Toure, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DuBose, Malik Heath
TE: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Josiah Deguara, Austin Allen
OL: David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Jon Runyan Jr., Zach Tom, Yosh Nijman, Sean Rhyan, Rasheed Walker, Caleb Jones, Royce Newman
Defense - 25 players
DL: Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, T.J. Slaton, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks
OLB: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Justin Hollins, Brenton Cox Jr.
ILB: De'Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Eric Wilson
CB: Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, Innis Gaines
S: Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford, Jonathan Owens, Dallin Leavitt, Anthony Johnson Jr.
Specialists - 3 players
K: Anders Carlson
P: Pat O'Donnell
LS: Matt Orzech
PUP: CB Eric Stokes
Peter's hardest decision (cut or keep): I did not want to keep four inside linebackers because I don’t think any of the guys past Isaiah McDuffie are NFL caliber if asked to play actual defense. I went with Eric Wilson because of his special-teams value even though general manager Brian Gutekunst, like Ted Thompson before him, tends to (over)value his draft picks at cutdown time. He was the team leader in special-teams tackles last year despite starting the season on the New Orleans Saints’ practice squad until Green Bay snagged him in early October.
If I were making the decisions, I’d cut it down to the bone with three linebackers and snag whoever is my favorite cutdown guy from somewhere else if it’s not Wilson. The Packers have not been able to find a home for Carpenter on defense at any position -- they’re on their third try -- and he’s not so good on special teams that he has to make the roster.
Peter's most surprising decision (cut or keep): None of the decisions were that surprising to me. But I think only keeping two running backs as the Packers did last year will be the most surprising to people who read The Leap or listen to Locked on Packers because I’ve raved about Emanuel Wilson and Tyler Goodson at various times over the last few weeks. But that’s exactly why I made the call I did here.
Wilson and Goodson are intriguing players! Patrick Taylor offers special-teams value and pass-blocking steadiness. If the Packers cut those players maybe one winds up on another team. Could even be two. That still leaves Green Bay with a guy to stash on the practice squad for last-minute call-ups, particularly with the expanded practice-squad eligibility rules.
What’s more, Jayden Reed’s emergence as a slot receiver and gadget player makes it easier to leave off someone like Goodson who likely fits best a jet/gadget weapon. Just let Reed handle those touches.
Peter's top target for the practice squad: The player I’d be most disappointed to see claimed is the aforementioned Emanuel Wilson. His rushing ability is, at worst, the third-best on this roster right now and the upside with his explosiveness and big-play ability is what NFL teams have to have at that position right now. But he has to improve as a pass catcher and pass protector.
LaFleur suggested his conditioning isn’t quite where it needs to be either. So, in short, he’s a rookie who has some things to figure out but shows intriguing talent. That is exactly the kind of player I want to try and sneak on my practice squad.
Jason's thoughts: For a time, I expected Peter and I to disagree over which wide receivers would make the initial 53-man roster given my concerns about overreliance on youth should the Packers waive Samori Toure. However, with Eric Stokes still on the physically unable to perform list, that left a spot open for use elsewhere, alleviating the issue for both of us.
With that position settled, it seems like the most difficult decisions for Peter came at the same position groups as they did for me: tight end and the offensive line. With the former, opting to retain Allen comes down to his ability to contribute on special teams, and I thought the team had enough of those players from other positions. However, we both made sure to keep Caleb Jones on the 53. A year from now, he could serve as the Packers' primary swing tackle.
Most of the other differences came down to preferences about which neither of us seemed to feel strongly. Will Tariq Carpenter versus Eric Wilson alter the Packers' fortunes in 2023? Almost certainly not. Does Corey Ballentine move the needle more or less than Innis Gaines? Not really. These decisions simply don't impact the crux of the roster.