The NFL is telling you how it perceives the top of the 2026 draft
The Dexter Lawrence trade sent shockwaves through the NFL over the weekend. It also reinforced the perception that the league doesn't love the top of the 2026 draft class.
Good morning!
The long, seemingly interminable wait finally comes to an end this week. On Thursday, Roger Goodell will take the stage in Pittsburgh and formally open the 2026 NFL Draft. While the Green Bay Packers won’t pick until No. 52 overall barring a move, their draft plans could dramatically pivot depending on how the board shakes out near the end of the first round.
Today’s edition of The Leap looks at the draft and why the latest blockbuster trade reveals how the NFL feels about the incoming rookie class.
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The NFL is telling you how it perceives the top of the 2026 draft
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Outside of the nixed Maxx Crosby trade, the biggest move of the NFL offseason went down over the weekend. The New York Giants, having failed to come to terms with Dexter Lawrence on a new contract, shipped the mammoth defensive tackle to the Cincinnati Bengals for the No. 10 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The trade became official on Sunday, as did the one-year extension Lawrence signed as part of the move.
On multiple levels, the Lawrence news should set off alarm bells. Except for deals involving quarterbacks, no team had traded a veteran player for a top-10 pick over the past two decades. Additionally, Cincinnati had never previously traded a top-10 pick for a player during the entirety of the common-draft era (1966 to present).
So why would the Bengals, who have posted a 24-27 record with zero playoff appearances over the past three seasons, punt on the top of the draft? Yes, Lawrence has an All-Pro pedigree -- he earned second-team honors in 2022 and 2023 -- but multiple years have passed since he last played at that level. In particular, his pass-rush production has declined dramatically over the past two seasons, as The Leap detailed last week:
Over the last four seasons, no player has generated more pressure from the nose-tackle position than Lawrence, and that ability makes him a rarity for the position. However, his 2022 and 2023 seasons account for the lion’s share of that pass-rush production. According to Pro Football Focus, he generated 128 total pressures during that stretch, including snaps elsewhere along the defensive front. From 2024 to 2025, he managed just 70 pressures, a decrease of 45.3%.
And even if the Bengals expect Lawrence to perform better in 2026, other factors come into play when assessing the trade. He enters his age-29 season and, following his extension, count $70 million against the salary cap over the next three years. Even if he doesn’t ultimately see all of that money -- and that would likely entail departing Cincinnati before 2028 -- Lawrence’s total cost will greatly exceed that of the whatever player the team would have drafted with the No. 10 overall pick over the same period of time.
Those data points hint at how the Bengals and many other teams feel about the incoming rookie class. While the group will undoubtedly produce some genuine field tilters, the top of the class doesn’t have a lot of fans among NFL decision-makers, at least relative to most years. While some grade Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese -- the betting favorites to go first and second overall on Thursday -- similarly to the players taken in those spots in 2025, the league perceives a significant drop-off after those prospects.
One could argue that the Giants, by trading Lawrence in order to double up on top-10 picks, hold a contrarian view. Perhaps they do, but the decision to move on from Lawrence doesn’t provide concrete evidence. The team just hired a new head coach and, according to the New York Daily News’ Pat Leonard, might soon have a new general manager as well. With such a massive reset ongoing, New York’s runway doesn’t really mesh with whatever remains of Lawrence’s prime. A trade probably made the most sense regardless of the quality of the draft class.
All of which provides important context to another blockbuster offseason move, albeit one from last year: the Packers’ acquisition of Micah Parsons. That trade saw the team relinquish its first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, along with defensive tackle Kenny Clark, in order to acquire the All-Pro pass rusher from the Dallas Cowboys. By consensus, Dallas already ended up on the lesser end of that bargain, but the leaguewide concerns about the top of the 2026 rookie class further tilt the trade in Green Bay’s favor.
And that doesn’t necessarily mean the Packers will have lesser options relative to normal when scheduled to come on the clock Friday. The Leap’s Peter Bukowski has detailed on the Locked On Packers podcast where the draft’s sweet spot lies: Day 2.
So, while the Packers might not have much to do on the first day of the 2026 draft, they don’t appear to have missed out on all that much. Considering they now have the best pass rusher this side of Myles Garrett on their roster, they can live with that outcome.