The Packers defense is dominating, but the Green Bay offense is ready to explode
Micah Parsons and the defense earned all the headlines after another suffocating game, but this Packers offense is on the verge of clicking in a scary way.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers didn’t have to play on Sunday and still won in a big way. They indisputably look like the NFL’s best team after dispatching the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions with such force. The Lions came back to life against the Chicago Bears, the Philadelphia Eagles offense looks stuck in second gear, and the rest of the NFC appears to be fighting uphill to get to 10 wins.
While all the discussion the last two weeks has been about the Packers defense, in today’s free Monday newsletter, we focus on the offense, which hasn’t quite clicked the same way. They’re close, though, and when they hit, it can be as good as the defense, which is saying something.
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Jordan Love is doing the things he struggled to do consistently last year
Peter Bukowski: After a masterclass throwing to the intermediate part of the field in Week 1, Jordan Love stamped that performance with another gem. Against the Commanders, Love went 7/8 for 130 yards and a touchdown on intermediate throws (10-20 yards downfield). That’s a 158.3 passer rating, which, for other scoring at home, is as high as a quarterback can get.
That was a preposterous 28.5% completion over expected. This was a part of the field Love struggled to target last year, and when I suggested this was due mostly to his injury, I was accused of coping.
Nope. He was just hurt.
Against the blitz, Love also had some struggles last year, after putting together a top-10 season in efficiency against pressure looks in 2023. According to NextGen Stats, Love went 9/15 for 175 yards and two touchdowns against the blitz on Thursday night.
And it wasn’t just getting the ball out hot to underneath receivers. On throws over 10 air yards when the Commanders sent extra bodies, Love went 6/8 for 144 yards and an EPA of +10.7. That’s bonkers efficiency. That’s partially the pass protection (more on that to come), but also a reflection of Love’s comfort in Year 3 as the starter.
Against the Lions, Matt LaFleur had Love attacking the middle of the field more, but against the Commanders, they pressed the edges. Love dotted out-breaking routes all night. Because the Packers proved they’re willing to push the ball vertically, the Packers were able to eat up cushion on the outside and get whatever they want on outs.
They almost completed one of the better late-half drives of Love’s career when Love hit Wicks for 14 yards on this outbreaker with less than 20 seconds left in the half, getting them into field goal range. Though Brandon McManus missed the subsequent kick, Love was able to move to his right slightly, reset, and fire a seed to Wicks to set it up.
These were the types of plays that eluded Love last year when he didn’t have full use of his lower half to drive the ball where he wanted with consistency.
Matthew Golden is getting open even though he’s not getting targets
PB: Early in Christian Watson’s rookie season, he consistently got open on clearout routes and backside hold routes. His role was mostly to influence the defense to create opportunities for others. LaFleur sprinkled in jet sweeps for him early, but knee surgery in the offseason before his rookie season scuttled his development in camp, and he came in behind fellow rookie Romeo Doubs.
This is how Matthew Golden looks right now, and the Packers are already dialing up more for him than they did for Watson at the same point in the season.
On the fourth down play Love missed, Golden was running wide open, reminiscent of the game-winning against Arizona State in the College Football Playoff. Love was looking to the other side of the field and came to Golden late. He floated the ball a little too much, understanding he didn’t want to run the rookie out of the back of the end zone, but he babied it a little too much, giving the defensive back time to recover and a golden opportunity (sorry, I had to), went begging.
Later in the game, Golden’s speed once again shows up. This is a play designed for him. The Packers catch single-high coverage, and the safety stays low off the play-action fake just long enough that once he starts to turn and run, he has absolutely no shot to hang with Golden vertically.
This was almost a 92-yard walk-in touchdown.
These are just plays in which Golden got a target. He’s consistently getting open away from the play as well. Right now, Romeo Doubs looks like the WR1 in this offense, but that’s what happened to Watson as well … until he started seeing more opportunities. Golden may not end up with a three-touchdown game or even become the WR1 this season, but his time is coming.
The Packers depth along the offensive line will serve them all season
PB: Against the Commanders in Week 1, the New York Giants did not look like a functional NFL offense. In Week 2, they lit the Dallas Cowboys defense on fire. That’s because the Washington defense ate up the Giants’ undermanned offensive line.
Well, the Packers had a similarly undermanned group in Week 2, and Love had all night to throw it. Anthony Belton rotated early with Darian Kinnard, but Belton played the majority of snaps and did not allow a pressure all night. He did have the holding call that negated an otherworldly throw from Love for a would-be touchdown, but Belton’s power showed up consistently.
Starting at left guard for Aaron Banks, Jordan Morgan excelled in pass protection, handling his matchups and passing off some of the exotic blitz looks Washington threw at this group.
Morgan may well turn out to be the better player regardless, but to be able to move pieces around like this on a short week against a front that had just gone out and kicked another team’s ass, speaks to the maleability of this front. Without two starters, the Packers’ offense didn’t miss a beat.
While there are teams around the league wondering if they have five quality players to put out there when everyone is healthy, the Packers have seven or even eight players who can contribute without materially hurting the offense.
Offensive line injuries are built into an NFL season. Five guys can’t handle 60+ car crashes a game and have it not affect their bodies. Depth like this is rare, and with offseason questions about the future of Rasheed Walker and Sean Rhyan, this may be the last time for a while Green Bay can boast this sort of roster.
They have to take advantage of it now.
Parting shot
PB: The Cincinnati Bengals fought back to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, even after Joe Burrow left the game. He was seen in the locker room post-game in a walking boot and on a single crutch. Later in the evening, Ian Rapaport reported the Bengals fear Burrow has a Grade 3 turf toe injury that would require surgery.
His recovery window would then be roughly three months, putting him out for a Week 6 tilt with the Packers. Though Jake Browning has kept the offense on track without Burrow the last year, losing a top-five quarterback against Micah Parsons and this defense inexorably changes the matchup.
Green Bay likely would have been favored in that game at home with Burrow. Now, the Packers will be heavy favorites coming out of their bye.