The Packers won't do this the easy way
The Packers lost to Minnesota by two points for the second time this season. In doing so, they highlighted two major problems a week before the playoffs begin.
Good morning!
For the second time this season, the Green Bay Packers lost to the Minnesota Vikings by two points. For the second time this season, the final score doesn't fully encapsulate the game.
Today's edition of The Leap examines two of the Packers' biggest issues moving forward, one that has plagued them throughout 2024 and another they appeared to have fixed prior to Sunday's contest.
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Matt LaFleur's confounding kick-go decision-making continues
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The Packers' kick-go headaches resurfaced on Sunday, albeit with some fascinating new wrinkles.
After two short drives, a missed Vikings field goal set up the Packers near midfield to start their third possession. Between Josh Jacobs' steady running and a well-timed screen pass to Tucker Kraft, Green Bay soon set itself up deep in the red zone with a chance to draw first blood.
However, back-to-back short gains forced the Packers into a difficult third-and-long. On that play, Jordan Love found Luke Musgrave for a 4-yard gain, not sufficient to move the sticks but enough to set up a convertible fourth down. This forced head coach Matt LaFleur to make yet another kick-go decision in a major spot.
This very type of situation has become the topic du jour in certain corners of the football internet, and The Leap covered it in great detail earlier this month. In short, LaFleur has taken the aggressive (and statistically advisable) approach to kick-go calls for the majority of his time as a head coach but, for reasons known only to him, has abandoned those principles in 2024. That trend continued Sunday with LaFleur opting to kick a field goal from inside the 5-yard line.
So, when the Packers ended up in another kick-go situation on their next drive, one could only assume LaFleur would again send his field-goal unit into action.
Except he didn't. In that situation, LaFleur decided to let the offense try to convert. The Packers ran a "pick-a-side" play with Love choosing a double-slant pattern to his right. He found Jayden Reed racing open over the middle and fired. Unfortunately for Green Bay, Love placed the pass too wide for Reed to secure.
Putting aside the execution for a moment, the two plays represent polar opposites of football strategy. By forgoing an opportunity for a relatively easy touchdown earlier in the game, LaFleur limited the scoring potential for his team. By leaving the offense on the field for a fourth down on the following drive, he lowered the scoring floor.
In that way, LaFleur ultimately chose the worst of both worlds.
The Packers' red-zone offense has improved since its early season issues and the unit as a whole entered the week ranked No. 3 by DVOA. Most likely, going for it near the goal line would have meant scoring a touchdown. And even if they had failed to convert, the Vikings and banged-up offensive line would have begun from the shadow of their own goal line. The most likely outcome from that point would have seen Green Bay regain possession in great field position with another chance to go score.
At the same time, had LaFleur opted for a field goal at the end of the following drive, the Packers would have probably ended up with more points than they scored in practice. In the context of a game decided by less than three points, that difference looks monumental.
"It's just a gut thing," LaFleur said after the game about his fourth-down calls. "I've said that a million times."
While some might interpret Sunday's game as a signal that the Packers should opt for the conservative approach more often, they simply cannot afford to do so. The playoffs begin in two weeks, and the caliber of opponent spikes accordingly. In a crowded NFC, Green Bay needs every edge it can find. Making more aggressive decisions could lead to fewer points, but losing by a little versus losing by more each represents a bad outcome. Teams need to give themselves every chance to win. Against top competition, LaFleur hasn't done that often enough this season.
A reversal of fortunes against the blitz
JBH: The Packers' offensive dominance since the bye came in part because of Love's improved play against the blitz. Over the first nine weeks of the season, he went 42-of-81 for 376 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions while taking three sacks while facing five or more pass rushers, all netting to -0.54 expected points added per dropback. The vast majority of those dropbacks came while Love battled through knee and groin injuries that severely limited his mobility.
However, after the bye week allowed Love's lower-body injuries to finally heal, he returned a different player while facing the blitz. From Weeks 11 to 16, he went 38-of-50 for 508 yards, six touchdowns, and zero picks against the blitz while only taking one sack. All of that netted an EPA per dropback of +0.44.
The takeaway seemed clear: blitz the healthy version of Love at your own risk.
And yet, the Vikings took a different approach, blitzing him early and often on Sunday. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they sent extra pass rushers on 55.9% of his dropbacks, the second highest blitz rate Love has faced in 2024. That plan worked for the majority of the game too. Until the Packers' final drive, Love managed just six completions on 10 attempts for 41 yards against the blitz. Additionally, all three of the sacks Green Bay allowed came when facing extra pass rushers.
That final drive did see Love beat the blitz to go 5-of-6 for 54 yards and a touchdown, but by then the Packers' path to victory had narrowed to a difficult defensive stop and a subsequent scoring drive. Though not technically too late for a comeback, it underscores just how well the Vikings neutralized Green Bay's offense for most of the contest. In effect, they rendered Love as ineffective against extra pass rushers as the quarterback looked when he could barely move early in the year.
The Packers won't face a defense as diabolical as Minnesota's every week, but they will need to have better answers for the blitz than they had on Sunday. Some of that falls on Love, some of that falls on the offensive line, and a lot of that falls on LaFleur. Given that Green Bay could return to U.S. Bank Stadium in as little as three weeks, little time remains to fix those issues.