Three critical questions about the Packers and DeAndre Hopkins
What does DeAndre Hopkins still offer at this stage of his career, should the Packers pursue him, and will they ultimately make a push for the free-agent wideout?
Good morning!
This past Friday, the Arizona Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins, the three-time first-team All-Pro receiver, after failing to find a trade partner. The team announced the move on social media:
With Hopkins now free to sign with any interested party, many have connected the star wideout with a number of teams, including the Green Bay Packers.
Today's edition of The Leap asks and answers three critical questions regarding the Packers and the newly minted free-agent wide receiver.
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What does DeAndre Hopkins offer at this stage of his career?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: From the Packers' perspective, Hopkins checks a lot of the boxes that Davante Adams did prior to his departure. Hopkins doesn't have traditional burner speed, but he creates separation from defenders with crafty route-running and a strong feel for the holes in zone coverage. Both the Cardinals and Houston Texans dialed up quick passes to get the ball in Hopkins' hands quickly and let him turn designed 5-yard plays into double-digit gains.
Given the current complexion of Green Bay's receiving corps, that skill holds a lot of value. Christian Watson flashed star potential as a rookie, but his best moments came on explosive plays down the field rather than down-to-down "easy buttons" that the quarterback could hit at seemingly any time. The same largely holds for Romeo Doubs. Perhaps that changes in the future and/or members of the 2023 rookie class prove capable of working in such a role, but that remains a mystery at this time.
Hopkins would also benefit from the extra space created by the Packers' burners. Opposing defenses learned the hard way that Watson requires additional attention. Doubs had his moments as well prior to his ankle injury. With both forcing opposing DCs to call more conservative coverages, Hopkins could take advantage.
Peter Bukowski: A lot of questions. How much will he cost? How long will he hold up physically given his lack of athleticism to begin with? Will he practice week-to-week? Will he be the right kind of role model for the young players? Would his presence stunt the development of guys like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs or help them?
This time a year ago, we might not have cared about the answers to most of those questions. It was time for one more run with Aaron Rodgers and the future be damned. That’s not the situation anymore for the Packers who are not built to be a Super Bowl contender this year.
I’m pre-empting my answer coming up here, but the juice isn’t worth the squeeze at this point in the roster development for the Packers. In a way, it only reinforces the missed opportunity last year to try a little harder to win than Sammy Watkins even if Hopkins wasn’t actually available.
Should the Packers pursue Hopkins?
JBH: The Packers have repeatedly stated that they want to turn over every stone when it comes to roster construction. Accordingly, when a player of Hopkins' caliber hits the market as a street free agent, the front office will at least touch base with the player's representation and gauge his interest.
Ultimately, the Packers have to weigh Hopkins' short-term value against the long-term opportunity costs. For a first-time starting quarterback like Jordan Love, a player who regularly creates easy completions could make a world of difference. Even if Green Bay's pass catchers don't receive the credit they deserve, no one in that group currently matches Hopkins' field-tilting ability.
Conversely, the parts of the field Hopkins would most often attack would otherwise see action from rookies Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft. Reed in particular would expect to see his role on offense slashed should Hopkins come aboard. That probably benefits the team in 2023 but could stymie the development of a second-round wideout.
The Packers have already invested a lot in Love's supporting cast, especially when one considers the quality of the offensive line. Hopkins would help, but the team has done enough to allow Love to prove whether he can hold the position long-term. With that in mind, Hopkins probably doesn't make sense considering Green Bay probably needs a year or more to fully reset its contention window.
PB: This question is actually more complicated than I made it seem for several reasons. The Packers clearly want to do some winning this year. Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur believe in Jordan Love outwardly, but a player like Hopkins would eliminate some of the built-in excuses for potential struggles this year with a receiver room boasting a combined age below Jordy Nelson (all numbers approximate).
Hopkins would clearly help in the ways Jason outlined above as a bucket-getter and pressure-release valve on third down as well as the red zone. If they want to effort a version of what the Chicago Bears are doing with Justin Fields by bringing in a higher-priced veteran to piece together a fuller view of their young QB, they could make a move like this, particularly if “Nuk” wants to play several years and is up for actually practicing/mentoring these young receivers.
There’s a version of the 2023 Packers that could and should go after Hopkins. It just won’t matter because it’s not, at least for the moment, as attractive a landing spot as it would have been with Aaron Rodgers last year or any other year prior.
Hopkins wants to win and he’ll have better chances to do that elsewhere. The “should” of this is almost moot for that very reason.
Will the Packers pursue Hopkins?
JBH: No, at least not in any meaningful way. For all the positives Hopkins brings to the table, he almost certainly would come at a premium relative to other teams. The soon-to-be 31-year-old receiver expects to field a variety of offers, including Super Bowl contenders like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs already received permission to speak with Hopkins, according to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer, while the Bills made their case a little more publicly.
From Hopkins' perspective, a chance to win a title would outweigh all but an extremely lucrative opportunity. Few expect the Packers to contend in 2023 with a first-time starter under center. How much more would Green Bay need to bid for Hopkins to garner serious consideration? The exact amount remains unclear, but the front office would have to wildly outpace the market for his services.
And with the resources already poured into the receiving corps -- Day 2 picks on Watson, Musgrave, and Kraft as well as Day 3 picks on Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Samori Toure, and Grant DuBose -- the Packers have fully embraced the youth movement. By the time the team has developed into a contender, Hopkins seems unlikely to remain a field-tilting pass catcher.
All of which underscores the problem here. The timelines for the Packers and Hopkins don't sync up well enough to justify a union for either party. General manager Brian Gutekunst can make the phone call, but don't expect much more to develop.
PB: Nope, and I’m not going to waste your Memorial Day with 150 words saying the same thing Jason said. Enjoy the holiday. Take time to remember those we’ve lost and those still risking their lives for us. Enjoy some BBQ.