Three solutions for Matt LaFleur to revamp the offense after Tucker Kraft tears his ACL
The Green Bay Packers will be without their best offensive playmaker for the rest of the season after Tucker Kraft tore his ACL. Once again, the head coach will have to make it work.
Matt LaFleur is no stranger to reinvention. He convinced Aaron Rodgers to play in a novel way with a new scheme, blending LaFleur’s philosophy with Rodgers’, then adapting it over time. In 2020, the Green Bay Packers leaned into more under-center play-action than Rodgers had played in years, leading to the best play in years. As the two-high safety craze took over the NFL in 2021, LaFleur shifted to more quick passing and RPOs. When Rodgers left, LaFleur took the governor off the Shanahan-tree principles, running a very familiar version of the offense for Jordan Love.
But in the second half of 2023, LaFleur had to adapt yet again. The running game faltered. Love found a rhythm, and the team leaned on the arm of Love from the shotgun, almost like he was Rodgers.
Multiple injuries to Love once again forced changes to the offense in 2024. LaFleur pulled designs from single-wing football for Malik Willis; he was able to reincorporate once Love was healthy. They found new play-action schemes and gadget plays to get players like Jayden Reed more involved, but the offense fell flat in big games, played too conservatively, and never had the same juice we’d once seen.
This year, the Packers have the No. 1 passing game in the NFL by EPA/dropback. They’re third in success rate overall, even with a clunky performance against the Carolina Panthers. But now they’re going to be without their top playmaker with Tucker Kraft out for the year with a torn ACL.
He was their top after-catch creator by a factor of four. Kraft was on a historic pace for a Packers tight end and showed against the Pittsburgh Steelers that he could single-handedly take over a game. Without him, the Packers can’t afford to revert to the 2024 model of running the air out of the ball. They’re not explosive enough for that, though their success rate has ticked up this season.
No doubt, LaFleur will have to make up for the loss of Kraft in multiple ways over the course of the season and playoffs, depending on matchups. Here are three potential ways to make it work.
Get in the gun and sling the rock
I was calling for this even before Kraft went down. Sunday provided another great example: LaFleur called 25 early down passes to 24 early down runs. That sort of balance only works if the run game is not only successful but explosive. Run-heavy teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions create chunk plays with the run game. The Packers don’t.
Matt LaFleur is no stranger to reinvention. He convinced Aaron Rodgers to play in a novel way with a new scheme, blending LaFleur’s philosophy with Rodgers’, then adapting it over time. In 2020, the Green Bay Packers leaned into more under-center play-action than Rodgers had played in years, leading to the best play in years. As the two-high safety craze took over the NFL in 2021, LaFleur shifted to more quick passing and RPOs. When Rodgers left, LaFleur took the governor off the Shanahan-tree principles, running a very familiar version of the offense for Jordan Love.
But in the second half of 2023, LaFleur had to adapt yet again. The running game faltered. Love found a rhythm, and the team leaned on the arm of Love from the shotgun, almost like he was Rodgers.
Multiple injuries to Love once again forced changes to the offense in 2024. LaFleur pulled designs from single-wing football for Malik Willis; he was able to reincorporate once Love was healthy. They found new play-action schemes and gadget plays to get players like Jayden Reed more involved, but the offense fell flat in big games, played too conservatively, and never had the same juice we’d once seen.
This year, the Packers have the No. 1 passing game in the NFL by EPA/dropback. They’re third in success rate overall, even with a clunky performance against the Carolina Panthers. But now they’re going to be without their top playmaker with Tucker Kraft out for the year with a torn ACL.
He was their top after-catch creator by a factor of four. Kraft was on a historic pace for a Packers tight end and showed against the Pittsburgh Steelers that he could single-handedly take over a game. Without him, the Packers can’t afford to revert to the 2024 model of running the air out of the ball. They’re not explosive enough for that, though their success rate has ticked up this season.
No doubt, LaFleur will have to make up for the loss of Kraft in multiple ways over the course of the season and playoffs, depending on matchups. Here are three potential ways to make it work.
Get in the gun and sling the rock
I was calling for this even before Kraft went down. Sunday provided another great example: LaFleur called 25 early down passes to 24 early down runs. That sort of balance only works if the run game is not only successful but explosive. Run-heavy teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions create chunk plays with the run game. The Packers don’t.
Being 24th in first-down pass rate just doesn’t make sense.
The kind of throws matters too. Over the last six games, only Kyler Murray has thrown a higher percentage of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. And despite the fact that Love has been the most efficient intermediate passer in the NFL this season, just 13% of his passes over that time have been between 10-19 yards.
After LaFleur called some inexplicable runs at the end of the first half Sunday, Love unfurled a gorgeous, layered throw on a deep dig to Romeo Doubs. This has been a new weapon in his bag this season, finding the off-speed pitches to drive the ball down the field still. It requires enough air to get over the linebacker or other underneath defender, but enough heat to make it to the receiver before the safety can close down the space.
It’s what has made him the No. 1 middle-of-the-field thrower in the NFL this season by EPA, according to Sumer Sports.
Let Love play real quarterback. Reduce the screens and single-read plays, and let Love actually cook.
Bring back the U-71 package
We’ve already seen LaFleur dabble with jumbo at times in his career with the Packers, including with Love as the starter. It came more in 2023 when the team was figuring out its identity, but we’ve seen teams like the Buffalo Bills find success because it forces teams to match with heavy personnel, but for most teams, that means an extra linebacker.
At least in the run game, that should mean advantage goes to the offense.
If an offense plays with two tight ends, but can’t move bodies in the run game, the defense is negating the entire advantage of playing that way, and can match with nickel to cover those tight ends. Losing Kraft for the Packers means putting a worse blocker on the field, making it even tougher to run, and while Luke Musgrave flashes vertical playmaking, he’s not the same monster after the catch. In fact, he’s so lumbering after the catch, the locker room famously cheered for him for “staying on his feet” in the Cowboys playoff game.
Adding Anthony Belton (also 71, like Kevin Barry once upon a time) would force teams to play in base personnel, where the Packers could use play-action to attack those linebackers.
A team like Philadelphia is only going to play base if they think they can’t stop the run game with nickel. Teams have to prove they can reset the line of scrimmage for that. The Packers weren’t doing that even with Kraft; a worse blocker doesn’t stand a chance.
Instead, put Musgrave on the field with a real blocker rather than Kraft with a player like John Fitzpatrick, and Green Bay might even wind up with a more effective set running the ball. Heading into Sunday, the Packers were fifth in EPA/play from 12 personnel, which they were using almost 40% of the time.
That will have to drop now, but if it’s 15-20%, they add the extra lineman 10-15% and make up the rest from 11 personnel, that kind of balance can work.
Unleash Christian Watson as a big slot
The best play of the day against the Panthers came on a shot play to Christian Watson from the slot. If teams are going to play two high safeties against the Packers and sit in quarters, then the key is attacking vertically from the slot because the safety has to try and run with that vertical.
Well, no safety can run with Watson.
And no matter what you hear on Twitter, you can beat quarters over the top.
This is something we saw the Packers do in 2023 as well, both with Watson and Reed. The Packers have tried it with Matthew Golden at times already this season. Once Reed comes back, Green Bay will have a slew of players capable of generating explosive plays from the slot the way Kraft has proven he can.
Ultimately, the Packers will likely use a combination of all of these and maybe even some we didn’t mention. In 2021, the team dabbled with some true four-receiver sets before Randall Cobb got hurt. They certainly have the bodies for that.
They have more talent than they’ve had in years to try and fill in the gaps with Kraft. It won’t be easy, but we’ve seen LaFleur manage these sorts of reinventions before. If he can do it again, it might just bring him the ultimate reward.