Trade chatter continues to percolate in Green Bay and elsewhere
Reports continue to surface tying the Packers and other teams to veteran wideouts.
Good morning!
Just two and a half weeks separate us from the start of the 2022 NFL Draft. That leaves precious little time for the Green Bay Packers to put the finishing touches on their draft boards and work out any arrangements with other teams to prepare for draft night.
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Hypothetical No. 1: A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel all hit the trade market this offseason. How should the Packers prioritize them?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The genesis of this question comes from reports that several teams, including the New York Jets, believe that one or multiple of A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel could become available this offseason for one reason or another. While it seems unlikely that all three would at this stage — and perhaps none will — the talk hasn't died down since the names originally surfaced.
As for how the Packers should prioritize the wideouts should they hit the market, financial concerns more or less cancel each other out. Each enters the final year of their rookie contracts and a trade would essentially guarantee that the acquiring team would sign them to an extension as part of the exchange. To determine priority, Green Bay would favor the receivers that fit into roles already established within the offense as well as availability and trade cost.
With those considerations in mind, Brown becomes the slight favorite for the Packers. He turns 25 this year and has three seasons of solid-to-good productivity. He also played his entire NFL career in an offense that shares roots with the one operated by Matt LaFleur in Green Bay. Furthermore, Brown can more directly fill the void left by Davante Adams. With the Tennessee Titans, Brown has regularly run the drift and over routes as well as the RPO bubbles on which Adams thrived. Though Green Bay couldn't reasonably expect to avoid a drop-off, Brown would make the transition as seamless as possible. If the Titans will listen to trade offers — and that remains entirely unclear — Brown stands as the Packers' most attractive target.
After Brown, Metcalf probably offers the most intrigue to the Packers. He provides a vertical element the offense needs in order to reach maximum efficiency and has the skill to work other parts of the field. While he doesn't possess Adams' top-shelf change of direction and route-running skill, Metcalf can dominate a game in ways a Green Bay receiver hasn't since at least 2011 Jordy Nelson. Metcalf also doesn't turn 25 until December and has never missed a game in his NFL career. The Seattle Seahawks have publicly stated that they don't intend to deal Metcalf, but their track record with such proclamations leaves the door open to a trade. Also, after moving Russell Wilson earlier in the offseason, the Seahawks have valid reasons to consider selling high on their top receiver.
That leaves Samuel third on the list, though that comes with some caveats. At this stage, Samuel ranks as the best of the three players here and just delivered one of the most impressive seasons by a skill-position player of recent vintage. As the San Francisco 49ers demonstrated, Samuel can deliver an All-Pro season when deployed correctly. And while LaFleur has built the infrastructure to do so, the Packers would have to alter their offensive approach more significantly for Samuel than the others. Samuel also would probably require the greatest price to pick off his current team.
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Peter Bukowski: All three players would be pretty nifty Davante Adams replacements, but the guy I’d want most for the Packers would be D.K. Metcalf, not because I think he’s the best player, but because he brings the kind of skillset that fits best with the Aaron Rodgers version of this offense.
Jason rightly points out Brown and Samuel have run variations of this offense and Deebo in particular offers the Packers untold versatility with his backfield role in addition to his prowess outside of the backfield in a more traditional receiver role. But Brown’s best role is as an underneath creator who can make plays after the catch. That’s awesome, but Rodgers excels at pushing the pace.
Samuel drives the car of an offense that only passively tolerates the guy who would otherwise be in charge of the directions. Rodgers doesn’t need to have his hand held. None of this is to say those guys couldn’t excel in more varied roles, but they’re not Metcalf when it comes to stretching the field vertically which is why his fit with Rodgers melds so beautifully.
Matt LaFleur said the team needs speed. Metcalf brings a vertical element in addition to his ability to work underneath and make plays after the catch. He’s the MVS and the Adams in a way Adams wasn’t, even if Adams is clearly the better all-around player.
Samuel had the best season last year. I still think Brown is the best player of the three. D.K. is the best fit with Rodgers.
Hypothetical No. 2: The Packers use a mid-round pick on a gadget player for Matt LaFleur's offense. Who is it and why?
JBH: Wan'Dale Robinson, wide receiver from Kentucky. Purely as a wideout, Robinson doesn't hit most of the Packers' thresholds. He stands just 5-foot-8 and weighs 178 pounds; well built for his height but still small by Green Bay standards. He also has just one year of good production which, while not disqualifying, leaves some questions.
But Robinson offers a skill set that few others in this draft class possess. His electric speed, ability to change direction, and skill in the open field make him a dangerous weapon if utilized correctly. He also comes out of an offense at Kentucky that shares a common foundation with the Packers' system, reducing the learning curve. Robinson could operate as the jet player in the base offense and serve as a deep threat in other instances. That he can serve in more than one role makes his presence less of a tell than for, say, Amari Rodgers, a third-rounder Green Bay hoped would provide some of what Robinson did in Lexington.
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PB: I love Wan’Dale but he’s too small. There is a mid-round gadget player who fits the bill and hits the physical profile the Packers tend to care about: Velus Jones Jr. I get the criticisms of him as a late-bloomer but that Tennessee program is a mess and 4.31 is still 4.31.
Jones would bring juice as a returner as well as a gadget player who can be a jet motion player, be used on screens, and shot plays. His speed shows up over and over again on tape where he’s putting distance between him and the nearest defender.
At 204 pounds, he’s also a bigger body who shows some physicality after the catch and I would be more comfortable with him holding up over a player like Robinson. That physicality is on tape as well, on screens, slants, and kick returns where he will shrug off tacklers and create more yards after the catch. He has a handful of long touchdowns where he catch the ball, bounced off a defender or two, and sped to the end zone. That kind of juice is rare.
What we're seeing/hearing
JBH: Several wide receivers in the incoming rookie class have generated considerable buzz inside NFL circles over the past few months, especially Ohio State's tandem of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
However, one notable wideout has lost some steam in the eyes of some talent evaluators: USC's Drake London.
While still not 100%, London's health hasn't driven concerns about his future. Rather, several personnel departments around the league worry about his overall athleticism and ability to translate his game to the NFL. London thrived as a contested-catch receiver at USC, but that raises questions about his ability to separate from defenders. Some also wonder why London didn't earn a featured role in the Trojans' passing attack until 2021.
As with all prospects, no opinion is universal. Some teams could still value London as a top-10 pick. But that doesn't mean he hasn't ceded ground to the other talented wideouts in the class. How he performs at his personal pro day — which he just postponed from its original April 5 date — could well determine whether he finds himself near the top of the class or still available when the Packers or another receiver-needy team comes on the clock.
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PB: A recent report suggested “the Ohio State receivers” will be going earlier than people expect, but from what I’ve been told, the love in NFL circles centers most aggressively on Garrett Wilson rather than Packers fan favorite Chris Olave. That’s not to say Olave doesn’t have his admirers, but teams at his pro day ooh’d and aah’d at Wilson’s ability to get in and out of breaks, his deep speed, and natural hands.
He’s drawn comparisons to Stefon Diggs and while I don’t love Wilson as much as the NFL, that’s not really the point. What is the point then? Don’t conflate the hype around Wilson with Olave who isn’t drawing the same kind of buzz from what I’ve been told.
Again, that’s not to say he has no admirers; he’s still viewed as a first-round pick all day. But Wilson is the object of teams’ affection in a more passionate way. Unless London blows away his new pro day, assuming he has one before the draft, Wilson looks to be the favorite to go WR1 in this draft class, and potentially be a top 8-10 pick.
Parting shots
JBH: Regular readers of The Leap have already heard versions of this sentiment, but don't confuse lack of activity with inaction. As I wrote last week, the Packers have plenty of reasons to wait out the veteran wideouts still lingering on the free-agent market. The lack of a signing doesn't mean the team won't add one before the start of the season.
Likewise, the Packers probably have a decent idea of which veteran wide receivers will hit the trade market in the coming weeks and approximately how much those players will cost to acquire. The teams with those wideouts have their own reasons for waiting. If, say, the Seahawks have already determined that their best path involves selling high on Metcalf, it makes sense to wait until the draft to see which team misses a preferred rookie receiver and grows desperate.
All of which underscores that Green Bay has numerous paths to building a capable receiving corps before the start of the season, and it doesn't really matter whether they make the necessary moves now, during the draft, or in the weeks that follow. So long as Aaron Rodgers has a decent receiving corps, the Packers offense will perform just fine.
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PB: I cannot let this Drake London aggression stand. The narrative around him has to end. According to a recent Pro Football Focus study, no outside receiver with a minimum number of press coverage targets produced more yards per route run against press than London.
According to Recruiting Analytics, a prep recruitment service, London’s max speed in high school was almost 21 MPH … in HIGH SCHOOL. In college, he hit 21.4 MPH, which is a top-10 percentile score. He’s big, he’s fast, he wins at the catch point, and he can make plays after the catch. London’s also still not even legally able to drink.
The man did a 540 dunk in high school. We are not worried about his athleticism in this house.
What am I saying? No way he can be a top-21 pick. No way NFL. Don’t do it.