What is it going to take for Matt LaFleur to rightfully be recognized as a Coach of the Year?

He didn't win it in 2019 when no one expected the Packers to be 13-win good. He didn't in either of the subsequent 13-win seasons (somehow) so ... what will it take?

Matt LaFleur is in a race with Kyle Shanahan to see who can win it first. Neither man has raised a Lombardi Trophy, and neither has won Coach of the Year. We can guess without much information which one each would prefer to have, but it’s also a worthy reminder COTY doesn’t solely reward the best coaches in the NFL. Andy Reid has yet to win won with the Kansas City Chiefs (and probably won’t unless they go undefeated). Each of the last Super Bowl-winning coaches in Green Bay never won it. But as the NFL viewing public starts to understand how good a coach LaFleur truly is, what’s the path for him to be recognized officially for that work?

Coach of the Year isn’t like Executive of the Year, with a recent history of jinxing future employment. In fact, in the last decade, two of the coaches went on to win Super Bowls as head coaches, and another as a key coordinator for the back-to-back champions. John Harbaugh already had a title when he won.

Here are the last 10 winners of Coach of the Year

2014. Bruce Arians — Arizona Cardinals 11–5

2015. Ron Rivera — Carolina Panthers 15–1

2016. Jason Garrett — Dallas Cowboys 13–3

2017. Sean McVay — Los Angeles Rams 11–5

2018. Matt Nagy — Chicago Bears 12–4

2019. John Harbaugh — Baltimore Ravens 14-2

2020. Kevin Stefanski — Cleveland Browns 11–5

2021. Mike Vrabel — Tennessee Titans 12–5

2022. Brian Daboll — New York Giants 9–7–1

2023. Kevin Stefanski — Cleveland Browns 11–6

The types of coaches can be split into three main categories:

• We thought you’d be bad and you were good

• We thought you’d be good and you were REALLY good

• Circumstances beyond your control made it impressive that you were good

The archetype for this award is the first type of coach. Kevin Stefanski (the first time) qualifies, Sean McVay, Matt Nagy, and Brian Daboll all fit the bill with him. These are generally first or second-year coaches who come in and exceed our expectations, which I’ve always thought was a faulty premise because our expectations shouldn’t matter that much but I digress.