What separated the Packers from the Eagles, as Philly heads to the Super Bowl?
Despite a slew of injuriesGreen Bay had it to a one-score game in the fourth quarter against the Eagles . How far away are they from the NFC's best?
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers, it turned out, fell to the NFC’s best on Wild Card weekend, a 22-10 handling that didn’t feel quite that close. With the Detroit Lions losing all their coaching, the San Francisco 49ers’ future in purgatory, and questions every else including the Packers, how far away is Green Bay from the best in the conference? We explore that in today’s newsletter along with how crucial it is to have a quarterback who can run!
Thank you for reading and supporting our coverage. You can also support our work by following us on social media:
Jason B. Hirschhorn: @by_JBH on Twitter / @byjbh@bsky.social on Bluesky / @by_jbh on Threads
Peter Bukowski: @Peter_Bukowski on Twitter / @peterbukowski@bsky.social on Bluesky / @peter_bukowski on Threads
The Leap: @TheLeapGB on Twitter / @theleap.bsky.social on Bluesky / The Leap's YouTube channel
If you appreciate thoughtful, independent coverage of the Packers and NFL, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Your support allows us to serve this community with the stories and reporting it deserves.
As always, thanks for making The Leap a part of your day.
The Packers lost to the eventual NFC representatives in the Super Bowl. What separated them most from the Philadelphia Eagles?
Peter Bukowski: The front. The Eagles could rush four, play shell coverage, and beat you. You had to take every drive 10+ plays to score and chances are Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr. or Milton Williams would create a negative and make life extremely difficult for you.
That was how the Packers wanted to play but the adjustment to this new front structure and rush approach under Jeff Hafley took more time to actualize and muted some of the pass-rushing prowess of guys like Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark. Running so many games works best for finesse rushers with lateral agility and burst. Clark and Gary are run-through-a-MFers-face rushers with power.
Gary is a better player than Smith or Brandon Graham or Williams, but the Eagles are able to consistently generate pressure regardless of who is playing. They come at you in waves. Part of this issue can be solved with playing time. Gary has to be an 80% of snaps guy instead of someone hitting high 50s and low 60s.
Think more NBA-style rotations than hockey lines.
And they’re a guy short. Devonte Wyatt provides quality pass rush in obvious passing situations, but can’t even break into being a regular starter. Karl Brooks shows flashes, but his athletic limitations may prevent him from being the down-to-down player that affects games like Williams. Lukas Van Ness’ relatively promising rookie season took a hit in 2024 with what felt like regression. His hand placement, lack of flexibility and burst showed consistently. He has to get better with his hands to reach his estimable potential.
Gary and T.J. Slaton charted as the best run-defending players at their positions in the NFL according to ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate. Gary in particular took enormous strides as a disciplined defender in that area, but it came at the expense of his pass rush. Taking on blocks and holding a strong edge on first and second down are tiring. Then he’s coming off the field on too many third downs as a result.
Hafley and Co. have to find a better rotation that serves masters of both the run and pass. Meanwhile, Brian Gutekunst has to find one more guy (at least) to impact games as Clark and Gary find their footing in this defense.
And I know you’ll say, “But Peter, the defense played well enough to win!” And that’s true! But losing Elgton Jenkins in the first half, playing without Christian Watson, and then losing Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed scuttled any chance of the offense scoring enough to win. The offense was elite all season. I’m not particularly worried about them when they’re healthy. They just weren’t at the worst time.
I’d have liked to see what it could have looked like best vs. best.
One thing all four conference finalists had in common: quarterbacks willing to run to create.
PB: Jordan Love isn’t, and will never be a Jayden Daniels-level runner, but notice who is second in the league in generating EPA on scrambles this year: Patrick Mahomes. Love possesses at least the athleticism of Mahomes, but what Mahomes has is an innate feeling of when to take off and the uncanny ability to always be running .1 MPH faster than whoever happens to be chasing him.
He scored a crucial touchdown Sunday on a designed run in the low red zone against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game.
No doubt injuries played a major factor in Love’s mobility this season. And while Love didn’t major in plays with his feet in 2023, for most of the second half of the year, he didn’t have to. The offense was humming. He was 1-2-3, backfoot and ball out. But for example in the Dallas Cowboys game, he extended to make throws a number of times. One of his best throws all season was the on-the-move third-down conversion throw to Romeo Doubs against the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs.
In the first half of the year, Love used his legs regularly as a weapon. Green Bay also rolled him out more and got him on the move as a thrower more often. LaFeur scrapped some of those play-action boots this year and it’s worth wondering if that was a mistake and/or cover for the injury.
Love is at his best on time and in rhythm, but he’s a more-than-capable creator.
He can run!
Parting shot
PB: The Seattle Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak after interviewing Adam Stenavich for their offensive coordinator position. Steno also interviewed for the Chicago Bears head-coaching position, and there are open OC spots in Las Vegas, Detroit, Houston, and Tampa Bay that could lead to play-calling opportunities for him.
Remember, the Packers don’t have to let Stenavich interview for lateral moves, and any offensive coordinator position would technically be such a move, but head coaches tend to let non-playcalling OCs take interviews when they get the chance to call plays.
LaFleur got his first playcalling opportunity in that situation going from the L.A. Rams where Sean McVay called plays to the Tennessee Titans under Mike Vrabel. The Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers lack OCs for the moment as well, but Kevin Stefanski is retaking the playcalling duty and Kyle Shanahan never gave it up, making those nonstarters.
Jeff Hafley didn’t get the New York Jets head coach spot, and the Packers wanted to move on from Jason Rebrovich, so they’re in a good position right now to keep their group mostly intact. For how much longer? The outcome of the 2025 season will decide that.
I think you are too sanguine about the offense, by just saying they were elite all year. You yourself railed against the slow and anemic starts that they would make, even when those injured players were still on the field. Somehow the metrics you prefer are not capturing critical realities that undermine this offense when it really matters. I was struck by Mahomes' willingness to make short and intermediate passes and use his legs, and I hope Love matures into using more tools as a QB and Lefleur mixes in more concepts between run and explosives, especially with tight ends.
Do you believe the next DLine coach can get existing linemen Van Ness and Brooks and Wyatt and others to win 1-on-1’s or do we just need to sign FA’s and draft better linemen?