What can the Packers expect from Christian Watson in 2022?
What can the Packers expect from Christian Watson in 2022?
The Packers drafted wide receiver Christian Watson for his long-term potential, but what can they expect from him this season?
Good morning!
The 2022 NFL Draft has concluded, and now the focus can turn to the actual players who will join the Green Bay Packers this season. Like much of our pre-draft coverage, today's newsletter will focus on the team's new receivers and establishing reasonable expectations for those prospects.
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Fill in the blank: By the end of the 2022 season, Christian Watson will be ______ in the Packers offense?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: A contributor but not a go-to receiver. Watson has garnered deserved praise for his upside and physical gifts during the draft process, but his flaws have also come under a microscope. Despite his humongous 6-foot-4 frame and elite athleticism, the North Dakota State product does not always play like a big receiver. His drop rate has also understandably become a hot-button topic. Between working on those issues and going through the regular development of any rookie pass catcher — nearly all have significant progress to make as route runners — Watson's workload might prove inconsistent early in 2022.
But that doesn't necessarily mean the Packers won't feature him at times. Watson's talent demands that Matt LaFleur and the coaching staff find opportunities to get him the ball, and the lack of veterans at the top of the wideout depth chart means he shouldn't find too many obstacles between him and the field once he gets up to speed. That includes the famously ornery quarterback.
Despite his reputation, Aaron Rodgers hasn't shied away from throwing to inexperienced receivers in high-leverage moments. During the opening drive of the 2014 NFC Championship Game, the then two-time MVP quarterback targeted a rookie Davante Adam deep with Richard Sherman in coverage. Despite the play resulting in an interception, it underscores the trust Rodgers put in a receiver playing just his 18th NFL game.
Likewise, while Watson could deliver a somewhat quiet rookie campaign overall, he should still have flashes of his intriguing potential, especially by the end of the season when the Packers need him most.
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Peter Bukowski: Fun. I’ll add another “f” word: frustrating. Don’t expect Watson to come in right away and be the alpha in the receiver room. He will need time to develop into a true X player. That said, he’s exactly the kind of speed player this offense needed with Allen Lazard working the outside opposite, along with Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers moving around in the slot.
He helps make the geometry of the offense fit sliding into that Marquez Valdes-Scantling deep shot role. But he can do more with the ball in his hands than MVS as a jet sweep player and screen catcher. Watson’s run-after-catch ability provides a better template for those crossing routes and mesh concepts to turn into splash plays.
TLDR: Watson won’t have to be a polished boundary receiver to be useful to the Packers in 2022 even if that will be the hope eventually. He can, and likely will, still be incredibly fun.
Which of the Packers' 11 selections was your favorite from a value standpoint?
JBH: Three selections stand out for inclusion here, and Peter will cover one of them. I'll highlight fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs, the wide receiver out of Nevada. While the elevator pitch with Watson centers on his skyscraper upside and small-school rawness, Doubs appears to offer a reasonable compromise between the two extremes.
Like his new teammate, Doubs can take the top off defenses with blazing speed. Though Packers co-director of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan said the team clocked the wideout in the 4.5 range during Nevada's pro day, even that reasonable time looks misleading. At the Senior Bowl, Doubs outran almost literally everybody, including Watson.
And while Watson's production requires caveats and context, Doubs doesn't. He produced as a true freshman — he scored a touchdown the first time he touched the ball in a college game and went on to pile up 562 receiving yards that year — and improved his output each season. He finished his collegiate career with 225 catches for 3,322 yards and 26 touchdowns.
And because of that early and consistent production, the advance metrics like Doubs as well.
While Doubs doesn't have the same ceiling as a top-62 pick, he has the tools to become a starter at the NFL level. And when it comes to Day 3 receivers, those from smaller schools tend to hit more frequently than those from blue-chip programs. And because Doubs has already played so much football with impressive results, the chances of him contributing as a rookie look stronger than the typical fourth-round selection.
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PB: I know Jason wants me to say my guy Sean Rhyan, but I’m going to take the other double-first name offensive lineman Zach Tom. I didn’t think there was that much difference in terms of quality between Rhyan and Tom, yet the Packers were able to get the former Wake Forest standout 50 picks later.
Both profiled as Round 2 quality players for me and only fell down draft boards because of their relatively short arms relative to other offensive tackles.
But Tom is an elite athlete, with an RAS of 9.56, a speed score in the 92nd percentile, burst score in the 96th percentile, and agility score in the 95th percentile. If it weren’t for his 34th percentile arms or his career at Wake instead of Clemson for example, I think we’d have been talking about an early Day 2 prospect.
He’s very similar physically to Chargers All-Pro tackle Rashawn Slater as well, who didn’t have any issues playing tackle with 33’’ arms. And Tom handled ACC pass-rushers like first-round pick Jermaine Johnson with aplomb.
What is the Packers' biggest need left after the draft?
JBH: Despite the additions of Watson, Doubs, and seventh-rounder Samori Toure, the receiving corps as a whole remains in a somewhat precarious state. As general manager Brian Gutekunst acknowledged during his press conferences over the weekend, the draft unfolded in such a way as to prevent the Packers from adding one of the tight ends they coveted.
The team missed out on both runs at the position, with Trey McBride, Jelani Woods, and Greg Dulcich coming off the board between the Packers' picks in the second and third rounds and another four going in the fourth before their next selection. That includes Wisconsin's Jake Ferguson who visited Green Bay during the pre-draft process.
With Robert Tonyan still on the mend from last season's torn ACL and the rest of the tight-end depth chart featuring football octogenarian Marcedes Lewis, the inconsistent Josiah Deguara, and a bunch of spare parts, the Packers might have to investigate the veteran market at some point over the next few months.
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PB: As much as I love Doubs and Watson, neither is ready to contribute this season as a top-end receiver in all likelihood. I wonder if there’s a deal to be done with Odell Beckham Jr., a player who wouldn’t be ready until Thanksgiving at the earliest but would allow the rookies to get their feet wet while developing chemistry with Aaron Rodgers.
And when the playoff push started, they could get a frontline player in OBJ who proved last year he still has plenty of juice left in his legs.
This roster is otherwise stellar, going two and even three deep at key positions. Gutekunst managed to snag two premiere interior offensive linemen, a developmental tackle, an inside/outsider pass rusher, plus two potential immediate starters on defense. It’s hard to poke holes on this team outside of that WR1 spot.
Parting shots
JBH: Shoutout to NFL Network's Carly Lindsay, one of the best people working in television, who removed a squinting Ian Rapoport for a bit during the final day of the draft broadcast.
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PB: I still need some runway to talk about the guy who will vie for the best hair in the offensive line room. On the draft broadcast, there was mentioned that Sean Rhyan struggled against top-5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux in their matchup when UCLA played Oregon. That’s not true. But don’t take my word for it. See for yourself.
I mentioned Tom stoned 26th overall pick Jermaine Johnson last year in their matchup and even seventh-round pick Rasheed Walker stood up better than one might expect against Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo at Michigan.
For an offensive line where nothing is more important than protecting the quarterback, those are some strong resumes to bring to Green Bay to protect the two-time reigning NFL MVP.