What's left for the Packers after Micah Parsons' season-altering injury?
The Packers lost more than just a game in Denver. Now, their entire season hangs by a thread.
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The Green Bay Packers suffered more than just a defeat in Week 15. They could afford to drop a game to the Denver Broncos, an out-of-conference opponent who they could only face again this season in a hypothetical Super Bowl matchup. However, Green Bay lost so much more on Sunday.
Today’s edition of The Leap takes a sober look at the Packers’ outlook in the wake of the disastrous trip to Denver.
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Breaking down the Micah Parsons of it all
Jason B. Hirschhorn: This past Sunday was the day that Green Bay hoped would never come. Micah Parsons, the team’s All-Pro pass rusher, suffered a non-contact knee injury late in the third quarter while attempting to chase down Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. Initial reports suggest a torn ACL for Parsons that, if and when confirmed, will end his season.
One cannot overstate Parsons’ importance to the Packers. He ranks as not only the top member on the defense, but the best player on the roster overall. Outside of Myles Garrett, no pass rusher takes control of games with as much consistency as Parsons. He swung the outcome of multiple contests this season and, before going down on Sunday, put his field-tilting abilities on display, forcing a fumble on the Broncos’ opening possession.
At the time of Parsons’ injury, the Packers held the lead as they had for all but nine minutes to that point in the game. Two plays later, the Broncos scored the go-ahead touchdown and never looked back.
Losing Parsons for the season would hurt the Packers in any context, but it affects them even more given the state of the defense. The unit had already lost Devonte Wyatt to a season-ending injury, Lukas Van Ness remains limited from his foot injury, and Evan Williams will likely miss at least some time after suffering a knee injury. An otherwise healthy defense could plausibly hold its water without Parsons, at least during the regular season. This version looks like a ticking time bomb.
Even without Parsons in the fold, the Packers will still almost certainly qualify for the postseason. Entering Monday, The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator gives them a 92% chance of securing at least a wild-card berth and a 48% chance of taking the NFC North crown. Those probabilities would improve to over 99% and 83%, respectively, with a win over the Chicago Bears next weekend.
However, it would be disingenuous to suggest that Parsons’ injury doesn’t close, or at least significantly narrow, the Packers’ path to Super Bowl LX. Sure, they ranked among the odds-on favorites in the NFC before acquiring Parsons. But developing a Parsons-less defensive identity from the start of the season and recalibrating after his injury with three games left represent substantially different challenges. Against the premier competition that awaits in the playoffs, Parsons’ absence will matter most.
The Packers have simply run out of horses to merit the benefit of the doubt. Entering Week 15, Parsons led the entire NFL with 78 pressures, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Rashan Gary had roughly half as many and generated pressure on just 12.3% of his pass rushes, a fraction of Parsons’ 20.5% rate. Kingsley Enagbare’s production looks a lot like Gary’s on a smaller scale. Van Ness demonstrated some progress before his injury, but he simply cannot handle a full workload at the moment and might not reach full health until the offseason.
And those players represent Green Bay’s best alternatives. Barryn Sorrell spent Sunday as a healthy scratch. Brenton Cox Jr. officially remains on injured reserve and, even if he returns, has played just eight snaps this season. It seems unrealistic to expect either to step in as soon as this Saturday and produce at volume.
Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley can only cover up these talent deficiencies for so long. The simulated pressures and other tactics that helped the Packers overcome the lack of top-tier pass rushers last season had already returned before Parsons’ ACL tear. Hafley can only turn up that dial so much more, and those won’t work as well without the team’s premier pass rusher on the field.
The Packers’ best and only hope for overcoming Parsons’ injury rests with their offense, and that unit didn’t make it out of Denver unscathed either.
Christian Watson’s chest injury
JBH: The good news for Packers wide receiver Christian Watson? He traveled back with the team Sunday night after visiting the hospital for his chest injury.
That concludes the list.
Early in the third quarter, Jordan Love saw Watson running down the seam against single coverage. The quarterback took his shot, giving his teammate a chance to make perhaps the biggest play of the game to that point. However, Broncos corner Patrick Surtain II made an incredible play, leaping in front of the ball and securing an interception.
In the process, he forced Watson to land on his left arm, causing an injury to the receiver’s shoulder and chest area. Watson appeared in visible pain immediately after the collision with the ground.
Watson left the game and didn’t return, and the offense felt his absence. Before the injury, the Packers had 11 gains of 10-plus yards, including back-to-back 26-yard completions on their second possession. After he went down, they produced just two: an unplanned 24-yard Love scramble and a 27-yard back-shoulder catch by Matthew Golden in tight coverage.
Watson not only makes plays down the field, but he also creates space for others to exploit, and the production reflects that dynamic.
“We went for a shot down the field, we had the coverage we wanted, and Surtain made a hell of a play,” Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur said after the game. “He’s one of the best in the business, so give him credit. But unfortunately, that was kind of like where we started to snowball. We never regained our ability to move the ball after that.”
After the game, LaFleur had no update on Watson’s status. The exact severity and even the precise nature of the injury remain unclear. The Packers offense could survive without Watson for the rest of the regular season if necessary, but the passing attack would look considerably different than it has the past month.
More importantly, any chance the offense has of reaching the level necessary to take pressure off a suddenly Parsons-less defense seems predicated on Watson returning this season. The unit already pivoted following Tucker Kraft’s injury, and that transition took weeks. The Packers don’t have another field-tilting pass catcher ready to walk through the door. The group they have now will have to carry them, however far they can go at this stage.
Any silver linings for Green Bay?
JBH: After battling injuries for over a month, Golden stepped up and made some big plays for the Packers. Each of his three catches went for double-digit yards and moved the sticks. Two came on third down. That includes his aforementioned back-shoulder catch for 27 yards.
Golden played more snaps on Sunday than in any contest since Week 8, his last fully healthy game. He also drew a 25-yard penalty for pass interference that won’t appear on his stat line.
To some -- chiefly the fantasy bros -- Golden’s rookie season represents a disappointment. The first-round pick has amassed just 27 catches for 341 yards and no touchdowns, and those with “stock” in him surely hoped for more.
However, that view ignores the context around Golden’s debut campaign. Not only has he spent the entire year in a crowded receiver room, but shoulder and wrist injuries essentially cost him the three previous games (he spent Weeks 12-13 inactive and played just five snaps in Week 14). And after all that time off the field, he came back to play significant snaps against a premier defense and delivered.
That performance would stand out in any circumstance, and it might matter even more depending on Watson’s prognosis. No player on the Packers’ roster can fully replicate his speed and playmaking abilities. But Golden, even as a rookie, comes the closest. Defenses have to respect his ability to get behind the coverage, and he entered the league with enough route-running refinement to take advantage of corners who leave too much cushion.
Make no mistake, the Packers can’t expect Golden to suddenly play at Watson’s level, especially after missing so much time. However, they don’t really have a choice but to let the rookie try.