Let's talk about comp picks

The Packers' impending free agents could potentially generate multiple premium comp picks for the team, and combine week has only amplified expectations.

The annual NFL Scouting Combine ostensibly provides a showcase for the top draft prospects. Certainly, the multiple TV networks broadcasting the event focus their cameras and discourse on the workouts taking place at Lucas Oil Stadium.

However, some of the most impactful developments take place away from those cameras, in the hotels and bars around Indianapolis. There, team decision-makers and agents meet en masse for informal conversations about veteran players, especially those about to hit the open market.

Some of those discussions have already taken place, and the news leaks have already begun.

On Monday, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport predicted that Green Bay Packers free agent Malik Willis will land a deal paying between $30 million and $35 million per year. Similarly, former Fox Sports reporter Jordan Schultz shared a few days later that a contract worth at least $30 million annually “is a foregone conclusion” for Willis.

The notion of Willis generating significant interest doesn’t come completely out of left field, but those figures represent movement from the expectations around the league as recently as December. The Leap laid out this possibility in Monday’s newsletter:

Willis has almost certainly priced himself out of consideration for Green Bay, though any fans hoping he’ll sign the type of deal that could return a third-round comp pick might have to recalibrate their expectations. The Leap previously reported that, based on conversations with those in and around the league, Willis’ lack of starts (six total over four seasons) should limit him to a de facto one-year commitment from his next team.

Still, those discussions took place before the combine. Perhaps now, with an incoming QB class that appears to fall off precipitously after expected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and a veteran market headlined by the still-recovering free agent Daniel Jones and trade candidate Kyler Murray, Willis could command more interest than previously thought. Such a scenario wouldn’t help the Packers in their seemingly futile quest to keep the valuable backup. However, it could help them in a year via the compensatory system, provided that Gutekunst doesn’t negate the pick with an unrestricted free agent.

Outside of the reporting on Willis’ market, other leaks provide clues about how the league currently views the available quarterbacks, both veteran and rookie. So far this week, reports have surfaced that Derek Carr could come out of retirement and become a trade candidate for a QB-needy team. Similarly, clubs have contacted the Carolina Panthers about the potential availability of 38-year-old backup Andy Dalton.

Serious interest in signal-callers like Carr and Dalton would have seemed laughable at the conclusion of the regular season. However, in the time since, QB prospects like Oregon’s Dante Moore, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, and Duke’s Darian Mensah opted to remain in college for another season, thinning the talent pool.

All of which plays in Willis’ favor. A general manager facing the possibility of kicking the tires on someone like Carr or Dalton has ample motivation to overlook the limited résumé that the soon-to-be former Packers quarterback offers. That doesn’t guarantee that Willis will sign a genuine megadeal -- a multiyear agreement averaging $30 million or more could include plenty of bloat from fake money -- but he can still anticipate a hefty increase over his rookie contract.

And Green Bay has other players set to hit the open market who expect to garner considerable attention. Rasheed Walker, a multiyear starting left tackle, appears poised to crack $20 million annually on his next contract. Romeo Doubs likely won’t touch those figures, but he’ll still command a decent pay raise as one of the top wideouts available. Combined with Willis’ impending payday, the Packers could find themselves with a bevy of premium 2027 comp picks.

However, no one should start counting the added draft resources that will land in GM Brian Gutekunst’s pocket. The situation involves more nuance and variables than the sports internet cares to acknowledge.