Packers draft variables and prospect crushes

If the Packers fear all th top prospects will come off the board before their first pick, they have the means necessary to maneuver up the draft board.

Good morning!

In just 17 days separate us from the 2024 NFL Draft. Like the other 31 NFL teams, the Green Bay Packers will spend this final stretch of the process working through pre-draft visits, medical rechecks, and gathering the last bits of intel. Even with most of the work already completed, these final weeks remain important for the team's draft preparation.

Today's edition of The Leap looks at the biggest variable affecting the Packers' draft outlook on Day 1 and Peter Bukowski's betrayal of a former Wisconsin Badgers stud.

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Identify the biggest variable affecting the Packers' outlook on Day 1 of the draft

Jason B. Hirschhorn: A trio of teams slotted in the middle third of the first round could materially affect the Packers' draft plans. The New York Jets (No. 10 overall), Denver Broncos (No. 12 overall), and Seattle Seahawks (No. 16) each lack a second-round pick but have good reasons to increase the number of selections in the early rounds. While the Jets have a clear win-now mandate with Aaron Rodgers back from injury and the Robert Saleh-Joe Douglas regime on the hot seat, they only own a pick in the top 70. As for the Broncos and Seahawks, both need to overhaul their rosters, and getting more bites at the apple would help.

And Green Bay could make for a natural dance partner. Just last week, Peter wrote about how the draft's upper tier of prospects could completely come off the board before the Packers pick at No. 25. Perhaps some surprises like six quarterbacks going in the first round push a preferred draft target or two back, but that doesn't seem like a great bet. The possibility exists that the team misses the chance to land any of the guys evaluated as first-round talents.

Accordingly, if the draft unfolds in such a way as to make all the top prospects unavailable by the mid-20s, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has plenty of motivation to maneuver up the board. He holds multiple picks in the second and third rounds (Nos. 41, 58, 88, and 91) as well as seven total picks on Day 3. According to the Rich Hill trade chart, Green Bay can theoretically move up to, say, Seattle's pick at No. 16 for a trade package like the 25th and 58th picks. That would put Gutekunst in range for a corner like Quinyon Mitchell, an offensive lineman like Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu, or an interior pass rusher like Byron Murphy II, according to The Athletic's consensus big board.

The Packers have done this before under Gutekunst. Just four years ago, the GM swapped the 30th and 136th overall selections with the Seahawks for the No. 26 pick. That, of course, resulted in signal-caller Jordan Love landing in Green Bay. A trade into the first half of Day 1 would represent a more aggressive move purely by the draft math, but if Gutekunst felt comfortable trading up to take a QB of the future with Rodgers still in his prime, he won't hesitate to manipulate the draft order later this month.

Pick your favorite non-Day 1 prospects from the 2024 rookie pool

JBH: For fun, let's break this down by offense, defense, and a homer pick.

Offense

While the Packers appear to have credible or better options at each of the five spots along the offensive line, they need competition and depth at several spots. The Leap has extensively covered what that might mean at offensive tackle, but we'll focus on the implications for the interior here.

With Sean Rhyan still proving himself as a potential starter at right guard and Josh Myers battling with consistency issues at center, the Packers would like to add someone to push both. Fortunately for Green Bay, the 2024 rookie class appears to have a handful of prospects capable of doing so.

Tanor Bortolini could make sense for that role. During his four years at Wisconsin, Bortolini played all five O-line spots, spending his final two seasons exclusively along the interior. He held up extremely well in pass protection, allowing just three sacks and 23 total pressures over nearly 2000 offensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Bortolini also blew up the combine with stellar testing, suggesting he can handle the physical demands of the Packers offense.

Bortolini does have some notable issues, otherwise he would go off the board earlier. He committed 10 penalties over his final two years at Wisconsin and probably had his worst season as a run blocker in 2023. That last part comes with a caveat as the Badgers had shifted to a significantly different offensive scheme under new head coach Luke Fickell and OC Phil Longo.

Normally, a prospect like Bortolini would go on Day 2, and perhaps that will indeed happen later this month. However, in a rookie class as deep along the offensive line as this one, he might slip into the third day, giving the Packers a chance to add meaningful competition to Rhyan and Myers at a discount.

Defense

At present, the Packers don't have a clear starting safety to play alongside Xavier McKinney nor do they have meaningful competition at slot corner for Keisean Nixon. With the veteran options drying up, the draft offers the best, most realistic path to finding solutions for both problems.

Javon Bullard could kill two birds with one stone. Peter wrote about the Georgia defensive back a little over a week ago, and I agree with his analysis. Bullard has the skill set and physical gifts to alternate between slot and safety roles, and new Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley likes to rotate players between those spots on the fly in his scheme. That could make Bullard particularly valuable to Green Bay as they transition away from Joe Barry's defense.

With the draft less than three weeks away, Bullard seems like a good bet to come off the board early on Day 2. The Packers, armed with multiple second-round picks, should have a decent chance to land him.

Alma mater

Your two co-founders of The Leap, Peter and I, come from fairly similar backgrounds. However, he attended Syracuse University and has supported the Wisconsin Badgers since childhood while I graduated from the University of Illinois. Our differing collegiate allegiances have come up before, most recently when Wisconsin's late comeback against Illinois last October required me to record this video to fulfill a friendly, non-monetary wager on the game.

Had Peter answered this prompt instead, he tells me he would have chosen running back Braelon Allen (unbelievable disrespect for Bortolini, a future Green Bay offensive lineman, but I digress). Regardless, we will stick with the Illini this time.

A year ago, Illinois produced one of its finest rookie classes since the early 1990s, including No. 5 overall pick Devon Witherspoon and three total selections in the top 66. The latest incoming Illini likely won't match that output, but it does include a potential first-rounder (defensive tackle Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton) as well as some intriguing post-Day 1 prospects.

Among the latter group, Tip Reiman deserves a close look. Early in the draft process, the Illini tight end seemed like an afterthought, the result of modest on-field production (41 catches for 420 yards and five touchdowns over the last three years). However, the 6-foot-5, 271-pound tight end lit up the NFL Scouting Combine, scoring as one of the top athletes in his position group.

Throughout Reiman's time in Champaign, head coach Bret Bielema and his staff talked up the tight end's talent and skill. Those test results provide a window into their thinking. Reiman also played extensively on special teams during his collegiate career, seeing work on both return and both coverage units as well as on field goals. With the NFL shifting to the new kickoff rules and Reiman well versed at blocking on the type of running plays that the new format largely emulates, he could hold considerable value in that area from the jump.

Sure, the Packers spent multiple picks on tight ends a year ago, and both delivered stellar rookie seasons. But that doesn't necessarily affect the team's approach to a prospect like Reiman. He will see the lion's share of his work on special teams, an area where Green Bay badly needs to improve. At the combine, general manager Brian Gutekunst discussed the need to get more body types like Reiman for those units, and that came before the NFL approved the new kickoff rules.

Reiman can improve the Packers' special teams in Year 1. He also has the physical tools to develop into a contributor on offense. For a prospect projected to go on Day 3, Green Bay could do a lot worse.